New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 18:00 UK time. The model makes Kansas City Chiefs 78% favourites. Line: KC −9.5.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
Sky Sports and 5 pick their Sunday games each week: Sky shows several of the 18:00 and 21:25 games (some on Sky Sports+), and 5 shows one early-evening game on 5ACTION and one late game on 5, free. NFL TV Guide
Prediction
The model gives Kansas City Chiefs a 77.8% chance of winning and New York Jets 22.2%, with a predicted margin of KC by 8.7. The betting market has it KC 82%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs win | 77.8% | 81.7% |
| New York Jets win | 22.2% | 18.3% |
| Margin | KC by 8.7 | KC −9.5 |
| Total points | – | 47.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| New York Jets by 15+ | 3% |
|---|---|
| New York Jets by 8–14 | 6% |
| New York Jets by 4–7 | 8% |
| New York Jets by 1–3 | 9% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 1–3 | 12% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 4–7 | 14% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 8–14 | 17% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 15+ | 31% |
Most likely exact margins: KC by 3 (7.8%), NYJ by 3 (5.8%) and KC by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Kansas City Chiefs are 44.2% to cover the line (KC −9.5): to win by more than 9.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Chiefs | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 2-6 |
| Points per game | 23.9 | 21.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.7 | 23.5 |
| Points difference | +36 | -18 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-4 | 4-3-1 |
Head-to-head record
Kansas City Chiefs lead 6–4 in 10 meetings since 2002. Kansas City Chiefs have won the last 2.
| P | Chiefs | T | Jets | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| At Kansas City Chiefs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
- Biggest Kansas City Chiefs win
- New York Jets 9–35 Kansas City Chiefs (2020 Week 8)
- Biggest New York Jets win
- Kansas City Chiefs 10–37 New York Jets (2011 Week 14)
- Average points per meeting
- 42.7
- Kansas City Chiefs against the spread (W-L-P)
- 7-3
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Kansas City Chiefs 23–20 New York Jets2023 Week 4 · line KC −9.5 (Chiefs did not cover)
- New York Jets 9–35 Kansas City Chiefs2020 Week 8 · line KC −20 (Chiefs covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 31–38 New York Jets2017 Week 13 · line KC −3.5 (Chiefs did not cover)
- New York Jets 3–24 Kansas City Chiefs2016 Week 3 · line KC −3 (Chiefs covered)
- New York Jets 10–24 Kansas City Chiefs2014 Week 9 · line KC −9.5 (Chiefs covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 10–37 New York Jets2011 Week 14 · line NYJ −10.5 (Chiefs did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24–28 New York Jets2008 Week 8 · line NYJ −14 (Chiefs covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 10–13 New York Jets (OT)2007 Week 17 · line NYJ −4 (Chiefs covered)
- New York Jets 7–27 Kansas City Chiefs2005 Week 1 · line KC −3 (Chiefs covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 29–25 New York Jets2002 Week 5 · line KC −3 (Chiefs covered)
Recent games
Kansas City Chiefs
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 8 · did not cover DEN −1.524–28
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 7 · did not cover SEA −33–20
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 6 · covered KC −7.522–6
- W@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 4 · did not cover KC −4.530–27
- W@ Miami DolphinsWeek 3 · covered KC −1024–10
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 2 · did not cover KC −633–30 (OT)
- Wv Denver BroncosWeek 1 · covered KC −2.531–10
- L@ Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 18 · did not cover KC −3.512–14
- Lv Denver Broncos2025 Week 17 · covered DEN −13.513–20
- L@ Tennessee Titans2025 Week 16 · did not cover KC −3.59–26
Recent games
New York Jets
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 8 · did not cover NYJ −1.533–38
- Lv Miami DolphinsWeek 7 · did not cover NYJ −3.525–28
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 6 · covered NE −7.519–26
- Wv Cleveland BrownsWeek 5 · covered NYJ −2.517–12
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 4 · did not cover CHI −3.512–23
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 3 · push DET −724–31
- Lv Green Bay PackersWeek 2 · covered GB −3.517–20 (OT)
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 1 · covered TEN −1.523–10
- L@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 18 · did not cover BUF −12.58–35
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Week 17 · did not cover NE −12.510–42