Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · MetLife Stadium
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets, Week 5 of the 2026 season: New York Jets won 17–12.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Cleveland Browns 12–17 New York Jets
Closing line NYJ −2.5, total 38.5 (stayed under). New York Jets covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave New York Jets a 44.8% chance of winning and Cleveland Browns 55.2%, with a predicted margin of CLE by 1.5. The betting market had it NYJ 55%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets win | 44.8% | 55.1% |
| Cleveland Browns win | 55.2% | 44.9% |
| Margin | CLE by 1.5 | NYJ −2.5 |
| Total points | – | 38.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Cleveland Browns by 15+ | 15% |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns by 8–14 | 13% |
| Cleveland Browns by 4–7 | 14% |
| Cleveland Browns by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New York Jets by 1–3 | 12% |
| New York Jets by 4–7 | 12% |
| New York Jets by 8–14 | 11% |
| New York Jets by 15+ | 10% |
Most likely exact margins: CLE by 3 (8.5%), NYJ by 3 (8.0%) and CLE by 7 (5.2%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New York Jets were 41.3% to cover the line (NYJ −2.5): to win by more than 2.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Jets | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Points per game | 19.0 | 20.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0 | 23.8 |
| Points difference | -8 | -14 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-1-1 | 3-1 |
Head-to-head record
New York Jets lead 9–6 in 15 meetings since 2002.
| P | Jets | T | Browns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| At New York Jets | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
- Biggest New York Jets win
- Cleveland Browns 10–31 New York Jets (2015 Week 1)
- Biggest Cleveland Browns win
- Cleveland Browns 23–3 New York Jets (2019 Week 2)
- Average points per meeting
- 41.3
- New York Jets against the spread (W-L-P)
- 9-6
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Cleveland Browns 20–27 New York Jets2025 Week 10 · line CLE −1.5 (Jets covered)
- New York Jets 20–37 Cleveland Browns2023 Week 17 · line CLE −6.5 (Jets did not cover)
- New York Jets 31–30 Cleveland Browns2022 Week 2 · line CLE −6.5 (Jets covered)
- Cleveland Browns 16–23 New York Jets2020 Week 16 · line CLE −6.5 (Jets covered)
- Cleveland Browns 23–3 New York Jets2019 Week 2 · line CLE −6.5 (Jets did not cover)
- New York Jets 17–21 Cleveland Browns2018 Week 3 · line CLE −3 (Jets did not cover)
- New York Jets 17–14 Cleveland Browns2017 Week 5 · line NYJ −1.5 (Jets covered)
- New York Jets 31–28 Cleveland Browns2016 Week 8 · line NYJ −2.5 (Jets covered)
- Cleveland Browns 10–31 New York Jets2015 Week 1 · line NYJ −3.5 (Jets covered)
- Cleveland Browns 13–24 New York Jets2013 Week 16 · line NYJ −2.5 (Jets covered)
Recent games
New York Jets
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 4 · did not cover CHI −3.512–23
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 3 · push DET −724–31
- Lv Green Bay PackersWeek 2 · covered GB −3.517–20 (OT)
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 1 · covered TEN −1.523–10
- L@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 18 · did not cover BUF −12.58–35
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Week 17 · did not cover NE −12.510–42
- L@ New Orleans Saints2025 Week 16 · did not cover NO −6.56–29
- L@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 15 · did not cover JAX −13.520–48
- Lv Miami Dolphins2025 Week 14 · did not cover MIA −2.510–34
- Wv Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 13 · covered ATL −327–24
Recent games
Cleveland Browns
- Wv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 4 · covered PIT −2.527–24
- Wv Carolina PanthersWeek 3 · covered CAR −2.521–18
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 2 · covered TB −8.523–19
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 1 · did not cover JAX −8.510–34
- W@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 18 · covered CIN −9.520–18
- Wv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 17 · covered PIT −4.513–6
- Lv Buffalo Bills2025 Week 16 · covered BUF −10.520–23
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 15 · did not cover CHI −7.53–31
- Lv Tennessee Titans2025 Week 14 · did not cover CLE −4.529–31
- Lv San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 13 · did not cover SF −5.58–26