Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · division game
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Kansas City Chiefs won 22–6.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Los Angeles Chargers 6–22 Kansas City Chiefs
Closing line KC −7.5, total 41.5 (stayed under). Kansas City Chiefs covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Kansas City Chiefs a 75.3% chance of winning and Los Angeles Chargers 24.7%, with a predicted margin of KC by 7.8. The betting market had it KC 78%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs win | 75.3% | 77.7% |
| Los Angeles Chargers win | 24.7% | 22.3% |
| Margin | KC by 7.8 | KC −7.5 |
| Total points | – | 41.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Los Angeles Chargers by 15+ | 4% |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers by 8–14 | 6% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 4–7 | 9% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 1–3 | 10% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 1–3 | 12% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 4–7 | 14% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 8–14 | 16% |
| Kansas City Chiefs by 15+ | 28% |
Most likely exact margins: KC by 3 (8.0%), LAC by 3 (6.2%) and KC by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Kansas City Chiefs were 44.8% to cover the line (KC −7.5): to win by more than 7.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Chiefs | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 0-5 |
| Points per game | 29.5 | 16.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.3 | 25.8 |
| Points difference | +41 | -45 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-2 | 0-4-1 |
Head-to-head record
Kansas City Chiefs lead 27–21 in 48 meetings since 2002. Los Angeles Chargers have won the last 2.
| P | Chiefs | T | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 27 | 0 | 21 |
| At Kansas City Chiefs | 24 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
- Biggest Kansas City Chiefs win
- Kansas City Chiefs 33–3 San Diego Chargers (2015 Week 11)
- Biggest Los Angeles Chargers win
- Kansas City Chiefs 0–31 San Diego Chargers (2010 Week 14)
- Average points per meeting
- 45.6
- Kansas City Chiefs against the spread (W-L-P)
- 23-24-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Los Angeles Chargers 16–13 Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 15 · line KC −5.5 (Chiefs did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 21–27 Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 1 · line KC −3 (Chiefs did not cover)
- Los Angeles Chargers 17–19 Kansas City Chiefs2024 Week 14 · line KC −5 (Chiefs did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 17–10 Los Angeles Chargers2024 Week 4 · line KC −7.5 (Chiefs did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 13–12 Los Angeles Chargers2023 Week 18 · line LAC −3.5 (Chiefs covered)
- Los Angeles Chargers 17–31 Kansas City Chiefs2023 Week 7 · line KC −5.5 (Chiefs covered)
- Kansas City Chiefs 30–27 Los Angeles Chargers2022 Week 11 · line KC −5.5 (Chiefs did not cover)
- Los Angeles Chargers 24–27 Kansas City Chiefs2022 Week 2 · line KC −4 (Chiefs did not cover)
- Kansas City Chiefs 34–28 Los Angeles Chargers (OT)2021 Week 15 · line KC −3 (Chiefs covered)
- Los Angeles Chargers 30–24 Kansas City Chiefs2021 Week 3 · line KC −6.5 (Chiefs did not cover)
Recent games
Kansas City Chiefs
- W@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 4 · did not cover KC −4.530–27
- W@ Miami DolphinsWeek 3 · covered KC −1024–10
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 2 · did not cover KC −633–30 (OT)
- Wv Denver BroncosWeek 1 · covered KC −2.531–10
- L@ Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 18 · did not cover KC −3.512–14
- Lv Denver Broncos2025 Week 17 · covered DEN −13.513–20
- L@ Tennessee Titans2025 Week 16 · did not cover KC −3.59–26
- Lv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 15 · did not cover KC −5.513–16
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Week 14 · did not cover KC −4.510–20
- L@ Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 13 · did not cover KC −3.528–31
Recent games
Los Angeles Chargers
- Lv Denver BroncosWeek 5 · did not cover DEN −3.517–23
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 4 · push SEA −723–30
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 3 · did not cover BUF −716–24
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 2 · did not cover LAC −6.514–26
- Lv Arizona CardinalsWeek 1 · did not cover LAC −8.514–26
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Wild card round · did not cover NE −3.53–16
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Week 18 · did not cover DEN −14.53–19
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Week 17 · did not cover LAC −1.516–20
- W@ Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 16 · covered DAL −1.534–17
- W@ Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 15 · covered KC −5.516–13