New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Lincoln Financial Field · division game
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 18:00 UK time. The model makes New York Giants 54% favourites. Line: NYG −3.5.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
Sky Sports and 5 pick their Sunday games each week: Sky shows several of the 18:00 and 21:25 games (some on Sky Sports+), and 5 shows one early-evening game on 5ACTION and one late game on 5, free. NFL TV Guide
Prediction
The model gives Philadelphia Eagles a 46.1% chance of winning and New York Giants 53.9%, with a predicted margin of NYG by 1.1. The betting market has it NYG 60%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles win | 46.1% | 39.6% |
| New York Giants win | 53.9% | 60.4% |
| Margin | NYG by 1.1 | NYG −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 39.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| New York Giants by 15+ | 14% |
|---|---|
| New York Giants by 8–14 | 13% |
| New York Giants by 4–7 | 13% |
| New York Giants by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 1–3 | 13% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 4–7 | 12% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 8–14 | 11% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 15+ | 11% |
Most likely exact margins: NYG by 3 (8.4%), PHI by 3 (8.1%) and NYG by 7 (5.2%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New York Giants are 40.1% to cover the line (NYG −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Eagles | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-6 | 4-2-1 |
| Points per game | 17.1 | 23.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 23.0 |
| Points difference | -65 | +2 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-7 | 5-2 |
Head-to-head record
Philadelphia Eagles lead 36–15 in 51 meetings since 2002.
| P | Eagles | T | Giants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 51 | 36 | 0 | 15 |
| At Philadelphia Eagles | 26 | 20 | 0 | 6 |
- Biggest Philadelphia Eagles win
- New York Giants 7–38 Philadelphia Eagles (2022 Divisional round)
- Biggest New York Giants win
- Philadelphia Eagles 7–42 New York Giants (2012 Week 17)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.1
- Philadelphia Eagles against the spread (W-L-P)
- 28-22-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- New York Giants 20–38 Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 8 · line PHI −7 (Eagles covered)
- Philadelphia Eagles 17–34 New York Giants2025 Week 6 · line PHI −7 (Eagles did not cover)
- New York Giants 13–20 Philadelphia Eagles2024 Week 18 · line PHI −3 (Eagles covered)
- Philadelphia Eagles 28–3 New York Giants2024 Week 7 · line PHI −3 (Eagles covered)
- Philadelphia Eagles 10–27 New York Giants2023 Week 18 · line PHI −4.5 (Eagles did not cover)
- New York Giants 25–33 Philadelphia Eagles2023 Week 16 · line PHI −14 (Eagles did not cover)
- New York Giants 7–38 Philadelphia Eagles2022 Divisional round · line PHI −8 (Eagles covered)
- New York Giants 16–22 Philadelphia Eagles2022 Week 18 · line PHI −16.5 (Eagles did not cover)
- Philadelphia Eagles 48–22 New York Giants2022 Week 14 · line PHI −7.5 (Eagles covered)
- New York Giants 10–34 Philadelphia Eagles2021 Week 16 · line PHI −11 (Eagles covered)
Recent games
Philadelphia Eagles
- L@ Washington CommandersWeek 8 · did not cover WAS −610–27
- Lv Dallas CowboysWeek 7 · did not cover DAL −4.521–38
- Lv Carolina PanthersWeek 6 · did not cover CAR −314–25
- Lv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 5 · covered JAX −7.517–19
- Lv Los Angeles RamsWeek 4 · did not cover LA −3.520–24
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 3 · did not cover PHI −3.57–27
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 2 · did not cover PHI −724–20
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 1 · did not cover PHI −624–22
- Lv San Francisco 49ers2025 Wild card round · did not cover PHI −619–23
- Lv Washington Commanders2025 Week 18 · did not cover PHI −317–24
Recent games
New York Giants
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 7 · covered HOU −1027–21 (OT)
- Lv New Orleans SaintsWeek 6 · did not cover NO −1.527–34
- T@ Washington CommandersWeek 5 · covered WAS −3.527–27 (OT)
- Wv Arizona CardinalsWeek 4 · covered ARI −2.536–24
- Wv Tennessee TitansWeek 3 · covered NYG −2.512–7
- L@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 2 · did not cover LA −6.56–28
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 1 · covered DAL −328–20
- Wv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 18 · covered DAL −334–17
- W@ Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 17 · covered NYG −334–10
- Lv Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 16 · did not cover MIN −2.513–16