New York Giants at Houston Texans
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · Reliant Stadium
New York Giants at Houston Texans, Week 7 of the 2026 season: New York Giants won 27–21 in overtime.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
New York Giants 27–21 Houston Texans (OT)
Closing line HOU −10, total 42.5 (went over). New York Giants covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Houston Texans a 66.8% chance of winning and New York Giants 33.2%, with a predicted margin of HOU by 4.9. The betting market had it HOU 81%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans win | 66.8% | 80.8% |
| New York Giants win | 33.2% | 19.2% |
| Margin | HOU by 4.9 | HOU −10 |
| Total points | – | 42.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| New York Giants by 15+ | 6% |
|---|---|
| New York Giants by 8–14 | 8% |
| New York Giants by 4–7 | 10% |
| New York Giants by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Houston Texans by 1–3 | 13% |
| Houston Texans by 4–7 | 14% |
| Houston Texans by 8–14 | 15% |
| Houston Texans by 15+ | 21% |
Most likely exact margins: HOU by 3 (8.5%), NYG by 3 (7.2%) and HOU by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Houston Texans were 29.5% to cover the line (HOU −10): to win by more than 10.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Texans | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per game | 24.0 | 22.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.8 | 23.3 |
| Points difference | +1 | -4 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-4 | 4-2 |
Head-to-head record
New York Giants lead 5–1 in 6 meetings since 2002. New York Giants have won the last 5.
| P | Texans | T | Giants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| At Houston Texans | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Houston Texans win
- New York Giants 14–16 Houston Texans (2002 Week 12)
- Biggest New York Giants win
- New York Giants 34–10 Houston Texans (2010 Week 5)
- Average points per meeting
- 39.0
- Houston Texans against the spread (W-L-P)
- 2-4
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Houston Texans 16–24 New York Giants2022 Week 10 · line NYG −5.5 (Texans did not cover)
- New York Giants 27–22 Houston Texans2018 Week 3 · line HOU −6.5 (Texans did not cover)
- Houston Texans 17–30 New York Giants2014 Week 3 · line NYG −1 (Texans did not cover)
- New York Giants 34–10 Houston Texans2010 Week 5 · line HOU −3 (Texans did not cover)
- Houston Texans 10–14 New York Giants2006 Week 9 · line NYG −13 (Texans covered)
- New York Giants 14–16 Houston Texans2002 Week 12 · line NYG −5.5 (Texans covered)
Recent games
Houston Texans
- Wv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 6 · covered JAX −2.534–31
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 5 · covered HOU −6.526–3
- Lv Dallas CowboysWeek 4 · did not cover HOU −330–34
- L@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 3 · did not cover HOU −1.517–19
- Lv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 2 · did not cover HOU −36–20
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 1 · did not cover BUF −1.531–36
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Divisional round · did not cover NE −316–28
- W@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Wild card round · covered HOU −330–6
- Wv Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 18 · did not cover HOU −9.538–30
- W@ Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 17 · covered LAC −1.520–16
Recent games
New York Giants
- Lv New Orleans SaintsWeek 6 · did not cover NO −1.527–34
- T@ Washington CommandersWeek 5 · covered WAS −3.527–27 (OT)
- Wv Arizona CardinalsWeek 4 · covered ARI −2.536–24
- Wv Tennessee TitansWeek 3 · covered NYG −2.512–7
- L@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 2 · did not cover LA −6.56–28
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 1 · covered DAL −328–20
- Wv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 18 · covered DAL −334–17
- W@ Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 17 · covered NYG −334–10
- Lv Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 16 · did not cover MIN −2.513–16
- Lv Washington Commanders2025 Week 15 · did not cover NYG −2.521–29