Philadelphia Eagles v Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Jacksonville Jaguars won 19–17.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Philadelphia Eagles 17–19 Jacksonville Jaguars
Closing line JAX −7.5, total 41.5 (stayed under). Philadelphia Eagles covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Jacksonville Jaguars a 69.5% chance of winning and Philadelphia Eagles 30.5%, with a predicted margin of JAX by 5.7. The betting market had it JAX 76%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars win | 69.5% | 76.0% |
| Philadelphia Eagles win | 30.5% | 24.0% |
| Margin | JAX by 5.7 | JAX −7.5 |
| Total points | – | 41.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Philadelphia Eagles by 15+ | 6% |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles by 8–14 | 8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 4–7 | 10% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 1–3 | 13% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 4–7 | 14% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 8–14 | 16% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 15+ | 23% |
Most likely exact margins: JAX by 3 (8.4%), PHI by 3 (6.9%) and JAX by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Jacksonville Jaguars were 38.9% to cover the line (JAX −7.5): to win by more than 7.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Jaguars | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Points per game | 26.0 | 18.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.3 | 23.3 |
| Points difference | +51 | -18 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-1 | 0-4 |
Head-to-head record
Philadelphia Eagles lead 5–2 in 7 meetings since 2002. Philadelphia Eagles have won the last 5.
| P | Jaguars | T | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| At Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Jacksonville Jaguars win
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13–6 Philadelphia Eagles (2006 Week 8)
- Biggest Philadelphia Eagles win
- Philadelphia Eagles 28–3 Jacksonville Jaguars (2010 Week 3)
- Average points per meeting
- 42.4
- Jacksonville Jaguars against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-4
Head-to-head (last 7)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 23–28 Philadelphia Eagles2024 Week 9 · line PHI −7.5 (Jaguars covered)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 21–29 Philadelphia Eagles2022 Week 4 · line PHI −6.5 (Jaguars did not cover)
- Philadelphia Eagles 24–18 Jacksonville Jaguars2018 Week 8 · line PHI −4 (Jaguars did not cover)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 17–34 Philadelphia Eagles2014 Week 1 · line PHI −10 (Jaguars did not cover)
- Philadelphia Eagles 28–3 Jacksonville Jaguars2010 Week 3 · line PHI −2 (Jaguars did not cover)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13–6 Philadelphia Eagles2006 Week 8 · line PHI −9 (Jaguars covered)
- Philadelphia Eagles 25–28 Jacksonville Jaguars2002 Week 5 · line PHI −3 (Jaguars covered)
Recent games
Jacksonville Jaguars
- W@ Cincinnati BengalsWeek 4 · covered CIN −2.522–17
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 3 · covered JAX −335–6
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 2 · did not cover DEN −2.513–20
- Wv Cleveland BrownsWeek 1 · covered JAX −8.534–10
- Lv Buffalo Bills2025 Wild card round · did not cover JAX −1.524–27
- Wv Tennessee Titans2025 Week 18 · covered JAX −12.541–7
- W@ Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 17 · covered JAX −3.523–17
- W@ Denver Broncos2025 Week 16 · covered DEN −3.534–20
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 15 · covered JAX −13.548–20
- Wv Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 14 · covered IND −2.536–19
Recent games
Philadelphia Eagles
- Lv Los Angeles RamsWeek 4 · did not cover LA −3.520–24
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 3 · did not cover PHI −3.57–27
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 2 · did not cover PHI −724–20
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 1 · did not cover PHI −624–22
- Lv San Francisco 49ers2025 Wild card round · did not cover PHI −619–23
- Lv Washington Commanders2025 Week 18 · did not cover PHI −317–24
- W@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 17 · covered BUF −313–12
- W@ Washington Commanders2025 Week 16 · covered PHI −729–18
- Wv Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 15 · covered PHI −12.531–0
- L@ Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 14 · did not cover PHI −1.519–22 (OT)