New York Giants at Washington Commanders
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · Northwest Stadium · division game
New York Giants at Washington Commanders, Week 5 of the 2026 season: tied 27–27 in overtime.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
New York Giants 27–27 Washington Commanders (OT)
Closing line WAS −3.5, total 41.5 (went over). New York Giants covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Washington Commanders a 48.4% chance of winning and New York Giants 51.6%, with a predicted margin of NYG by 0.5. The betting market had it WAS 62%. The game was tied.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders win | 48.4% | 62.3% |
| New York Giants win | 51.6% | 37.7% |
| Margin | NYG by 0.5 | WAS −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 41.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| New York Giants by 15+ | 13% |
|---|---|
| New York Giants by 8–14 | 12% |
| New York Giants by 4–7 | 13% |
| New York Giants by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Washington Commanders by 1–3 | 13% |
| Washington Commanders by 4–7 | 13% |
| Washington Commanders by 8–14 | 12% |
| Washington Commanders by 15+ | 12% |
Most likely exact margins: NYG by 3 (8.4%), WAS by 3 (8.2%) and NYG by 7 (5.0%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Washington Commanders were 35.9% to cover the line (WAS −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Commanders | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Points per game | 22.0 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5 | 19.8 |
| Points difference | -34 | +3 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-2 | 3-1 |
Head-to-head record
New York Giants lead 30–17 with 1 tie in 48 meetings since 2002. Washington Commanders have won the last 4.
| P | Commanders | T | Giants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 17 | 1 | 30 |
| At Washington Commanders | 24 | 9 | 0 | 15 |
- Biggest Washington Commanders win
- New York Giants 7–31 Washington Redskins (2004 Week 13)
- Biggest New York Giants win
- Washington Redskins 0–36 New York Giants (2005 Week 8)
- Average points per meeting
- 39.9
- Washington Commanders against the spread (W-L-P)
- 20-27-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Washington Commanders 29–21 New York Giants2025 Week 15 · line NYG −2.5 (Commanders covered)
- New York Giants 6–21 Washington Commanders2025 Week 1 · line WAS −6 (Commanders covered)
- Washington Commanders 27–22 New York Giants2024 Week 9 · line WAS −4.5 (Commanders covered)
- New York Giants 18–21 Washington Commanders2024 Week 2 · line WAS −1.5 (Commanders covered)
- New York Giants 31–19 Washington Commanders2023 Week 11 · line WAS −7.5 (Commanders did not cover)
- Washington Commanders 7–14 New York Giants2023 Week 7 · line WAS −3 (Commanders did not cover)
- New York Giants 20–12 Washington Commanders2022 Week 15 · line WAS −4.5 (Commanders did not cover)
- Washington Commanders 20–20 New York Giants (OT)2022 Week 13 · line WAS −2.5 (Commanders did not cover)
- Washington Football Team 22–7 New York Giants2021 Week 18 · line WAS −6 (Commanders covered)
- New York Giants 29–30 Washington Football Team2021 Week 2 · line WAS −4 (Commanders did not cover)
Recent games
Washington Commanders
- Lv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 4 · did not cover IND −4.513–30
- Wv Seattle SeahawksWeek 3 · covered SEA −8.533–31
- L@ Dallas CowboysWeek 2 · did not cover DAL −3.520–37
- L@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 1 · covered PHI −622–24
- W@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 18 · covered PHI −324–17
- Lv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 17 · covered DAL −8.523–30
- Lv Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 16 · did not cover PHI −718–29
- W@ New York Giants2025 Week 15 · covered NYG −2.529–21
- L@ Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 14 · did not cover WAS −1.50–31
- Lv Denver Broncos2025 Week 13 · covered DEN −6.526–27 (OT)
Recent games
New York Giants
- Wv Arizona CardinalsWeek 4 · covered ARI −2.536–24
- Wv Tennessee TitansWeek 3 · covered NYG −2.512–7
- L@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 2 · did not cover LA −6.56–28
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 1 · covered DAL −328–20
- Wv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 18 · covered DAL −334–17
- W@ Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 17 · covered NYG −334–10
- Lv Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 16 · did not cover MIN −2.513–16
- Lv Washington Commanders2025 Week 15 · did not cover NYG −2.521–29
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Week 13 · did not cover NE −715–33
- L@ Detroit Lions2025 Week 12 · covered DET −1427–34 (OT)