New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · MetLife Stadium
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants, Week 6 of the 2026 season: New Orleans Saints won 34–27.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
New Orleans Saints 34–27 New York Giants
Closing line NO −1.5, total 46.5 (went over). New Orleans Saints covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave New York Giants a 65.8% chance of winning and New Orleans Saints 34.2%, with a predicted margin of NYG by 4.6. The betting market had it NYG 50%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants win | 65.8% | 50.4% |
| New Orleans Saints win | 34.2% | 49.6% |
| Margin | NYG by 4.6 | NO −1.5 |
| Total points | – | 46.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| New Orleans Saints by 15+ | 7% |
|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints by 8–14 | 8% |
| New Orleans Saints by 4–7 | 11% |
| New Orleans Saints by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New York Giants by 1–3 | 13% |
| New York Giants by 4–7 | 14% |
| New York Giants by 8–14 | 15% |
| New York Giants by 15+ | 21% |
Most likely exact margins: NYG by 3 (8.5%), NO by 3 (7.3%) and NYG by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New Orleans Saints were 34.9% to cover the line (NO −1.5): to win by more than 1.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Giants | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1-1 | 1-4 |
| Points per game | 21.8 | 23.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.2 | 30.2 |
| Points difference | +3 | -33 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-1 | 2-3 |
Head-to-head record
New Orleans Saints lead 9–4 in 13 meetings since 2003. New Orleans Saints have won the last 3.
| P | Giants | T | Saints | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| At New York Giants | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- Biggest New York Giants win
- New Orleans Saints 27–52 New York Giants (2012 Week 14)
- Biggest New Orleans Saints win
- New York Giants 7–45 New Orleans Saints (2003 Week 15)
- Average points per meeting
- 52.1
- New York Giants against the spread (W-L-P)
- 4-8-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- New York Giants 14–26 New Orleans Saints2025 Week 5 · line NO −1.5 (Giants did not cover)
- New Orleans Saints 14–11 New York Giants2024 Week 14 · line NO −5.5 (Giants covered)
- New York Giants 6–24 New Orleans Saints2023 Week 15 · line NO −6 (Giants did not cover)
- New York Giants 27–21 New Orleans Saints (OT)2021 Week 4 · line NO −7.5 (Giants covered)
- New Orleans Saints 33–18 New York Giants2018 Week 4 · line NO −3.5 (Giants did not cover)
- New Orleans Saints 13–16 New York Giants2016 Week 2 · line NYG −3.5 (Giants did not cover)
- New York Giants 49–52 New Orleans Saints2015 Week 8 · line NO −3 (Giants push)
- New Orleans Saints 27–52 New York Giants2012 Week 14 · line NYG −4 (Giants covered)
- New York Giants 24–49 New Orleans Saints2011 Week 12 · line NO −7 (Giants did not cover)
- New York Giants 27–48 New Orleans Saints2009 Week 6 · line NO −3.5 (Giants did not cover)
Recent games
New York Giants
- T@ Washington CommandersWeek 5 · covered WAS −3.527–27 (OT)
- Wv Arizona CardinalsWeek 4 · covered ARI −2.536–24
- Wv Tennessee TitansWeek 3 · covered NYG −2.512–7
- L@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 2 · did not cover LA −6.56–28
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 1 · covered DAL −328–20
- Wv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 18 · covered DAL −334–17
- W@ Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 17 · covered NYG −334–10
- Lv Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 16 · did not cover MIN −2.513–16
- Lv Washington Commanders2025 Week 15 · did not cover NYG −2.521–29
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Week 13 · did not cover NE −715–33
Recent games
New Orleans Saints
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 5 · did not cover MIN −2.513–23
- Lv Atlanta FalconsWeek 4 · did not cover NO −1.524–45
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 3 · did not cover NO −3.527–35
- W@ Baltimore RavensWeek 2 · covered BAL −8.524–17
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 1 · covered DET −730–31 (OT)
- L@ Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 18 · covered ATL −4.517–19
- W@ Tennessee Titans2025 Week 17 · covered NO −1.534–26
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 16 · covered NO −6.529–6
- Wv Carolina Panthers2025 Week 15 · covered CAR −2.520–17
- W@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 14 · covered TB −7.524–20