Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Northwest Stadium · division game
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Washington Commanders won 27–10.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Philadelphia Eagles 10–27 Washington Commanders
Closing line WAS −6, total 40.5 (stayed under). Washington Commanders covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Washington Commanders a 54.3% chance of winning and Philadelphia Eagles 45.7%, with a predicted margin of WAS by 1.2. The betting market had it WAS 71%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders win | 54.3% | 70.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles win | 45.7% | 29.5% |
| Margin | WAS by 1.2 | WAS −6 |
| Total points | – | 40.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Philadelphia Eagles by 15+ | 11% |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles by 8–14 | 11% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 4–7 | 12% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Washington Commanders by 1–3 | 13% |
| Washington Commanders by 4–7 | 13% |
| Washington Commanders by 8–14 | 13% |
| Washington Commanders by 15+ | 14% |
Most likely exact margins: WAS by 3 (8.4%), PHI by 3 (8.1%) and WAS by 7 (5.2%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Washington Commanders were 32.1% to cover the line (WAS −6): to win by more than 6.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Commanders | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4-1 | 2-5 |
| Points per game | 22.0 | 18.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.7 | 25.0 |
| Points difference | -40 | -48 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-3 | 1-6 |
Head-to-head record
Philadelphia Eagles lead 32–18 in 50 meetings since 2002.
| P | Commanders | T | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 50 | 18 | 0 | 32 |
| At Washington Commanders | 24 | 8 | 0 | 16 |
- Biggest Washington Commanders win
- Philadelphia Eagles 6–31 Washington Redskins (2012 Week 11)
- Biggest Philadelphia Eagles win
- Washington Commanders 23–55 Philadelphia Eagles (2024 Conference championships)
- Average points per meeting
- 46.7
- Washington Commanders against the spread (W-L-P)
- 25-22-3
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Washington Commanders 22–24 Philadelphia Eagles2026 Week 1 · line PHI −6 (Commanders covered)
- Washington Commanders 24–17 Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 18 · line PHI −3 (Commanders covered)
- Philadelphia Eagles 29–18 Washington Commanders2025 Week 16 · line PHI −7 (Commanders did not cover)
- Washington Commanders 23–55 Philadelphia Eagles2024 Conference championships · line PHI −6 (Commanders did not cover)
- Philadelphia Eagles 33–36 Washington Commanders2024 Week 16 · line PHI −4 (Commanders covered)
- Washington Commanders 18–26 Philadelphia Eagles2024 Week 11 · line PHI −4.5 (Commanders did not cover)
- Philadelphia Eagles 38–31 Washington Commanders2023 Week 8 · line PHI −7 (Commanders push)
- Washington Commanders 31–34 Philadelphia Eagles (OT)2023 Week 4 · line PHI −9.5 (Commanders covered)
- Washington Commanders 32–21 Philadelphia Eagles2022 Week 10 · line PHI −11 (Commanders covered)
- Philadelphia Eagles 24–8 Washington Commanders2022 Week 3 · line PHI −6 (Commanders did not cover)
Recent games
Washington Commanders
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 6 · covered SF −7.517–23
- Tv New York GiantsWeek 5 · did not cover WAS −3.527–27 (OT)
- Lv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 4 · did not cover IND −4.513–30
- Wv Seattle SeahawksWeek 3 · covered SEA −8.533–31
- L@ Dallas CowboysWeek 2 · did not cover DAL −3.520–37
- L@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 1 · covered PHI −622–24
- W@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 18 · covered PHI −324–17
- Lv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 17 · covered DAL −8.523–30
- Lv Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 16 · did not cover PHI −718–29
- W@ New York Giants2025 Week 15 · covered NYG −2.529–21
Recent games
Philadelphia Eagles
- Lv Dallas CowboysWeek 7 · did not cover DAL −4.521–38
- Lv Carolina PanthersWeek 6 · did not cover CAR −314–25
- Lv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 5 · covered JAX −7.517–19
- Lv Los Angeles RamsWeek 4 · did not cover LA −3.520–24
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 3 · did not cover PHI −3.57–27
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 2 · did not cover PHI −724–20
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 1 · did not cover PHI −624–22
- Lv San Francisco 49ers2025 Wild card round · did not cover PHI −619–23
- Lv Washington Commanders2025 Week 18 · did not cover PHI −317–24
- W@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 17 · covered BUF −313–12