Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · Lincoln Financial Field · division game
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Dallas Cowboys won 38–21.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Dallas Cowboys 38–21 Philadelphia Eagles
Closing line DAL −4.5, total 43.5 (went over). Dallas Cowboys covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Philadelphia Eagles a 60.8% chance of winning and Dallas Cowboys 39.2%, with a predicted margin of PHI by 3.1. The betting market had it DAL 66%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles win | 60.8% | 34.3% |
| Dallas Cowboys win | 39.2% | 65.8% |
| Margin | PHI by 3.1 | DAL −4.5 |
| Total points | – | 43.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Dallas Cowboys by 15+ | 8% |
|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys by 8–14 | 10% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 4–7 | 11% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 1–3 | 13% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 4–7 | 14% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 8–14 | 14% |
| Philadelphia Eagles by 15+ | 18% |
Most likely exact margins: PHI by 3 (8.5%), DAL by 3 (7.7%) and PHI by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Dallas Cowboys were 26.7% to cover the line (DAL −4.5): to win by more than 4.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Eagles | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Points per game | 17.7 | 25.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8 | 26.5 |
| Points difference | -31 | -8 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 1-5 | 2-3-1 |
Head-to-head record
Dallas Cowboys lead 25–24 in 49 meetings since 2002.
| P | Eagles | T | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 49 | 24 | 0 | 25 |
| At Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
- Biggest Philadelphia Eagles win
- Dallas Cowboys 6–44 Philadelphia Eagles (2008 Week 17)
- Biggest Dallas Cowboys win
- Philadelphia Eagles 10–37 Dallas Cowboys (2019 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 45.5
- Philadelphia Eagles against the spread (W-L-P)
- 23-26
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Philadelphia Eagles 21–24 Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 12 · line PHI −3 (Eagles did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 20–24 Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 1 · line PHI −8.5 (Eagles did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 7–41 Philadelphia Eagles2024 Week 17 · line PHI −7.5 (Eagles covered)
- Philadelphia Eagles 34–6 Dallas Cowboys2024 Week 10 · line PHI −7.5 (Eagles covered)
- Philadelphia Eagles 13–33 Dallas Cowboys2023 Week 14 · line DAL −3.5 (Eagles did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 23–28 Philadelphia Eagles2023 Week 9 · line PHI −3.5 (Eagles covered)
- Philadelphia Eagles 34–40 Dallas Cowboys2022 Week 16 · line DAL −4 (Eagles did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 17–26 Philadelphia Eagles2022 Week 6 · line PHI −6.5 (Eagles covered)
- Dallas Cowboys 51–26 Philadelphia Eagles2021 Week 18 · line DAL −6.5 (Eagles did not cover)
- Philadelphia Eagles 21–41 Dallas Cowboys2021 Week 3 · line DAL −3.5 (Eagles did not cover)
Recent games
Philadelphia Eagles
- Lv Carolina PanthersWeek 6 · did not cover CAR −314–25
- Lv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 5 · covered JAX −7.517–19
- Lv Los Angeles RamsWeek 4 · did not cover LA −3.520–24
- L@ Chicago BearsWeek 3 · did not cover PHI −3.57–27
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 2 · did not cover PHI −724–20
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 1 · did not cover PHI −624–22
- Lv San Francisco 49ers2025 Wild card round · did not cover PHI −619–23
- Lv Washington Commanders2025 Week 18 · did not cover PHI −317–24
- W@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 17 · covered BUF −313–12
- W@ Washington Commanders2025 Week 16 · covered PHI −729–18
Recent games
Dallas Cowboys
- L@ Green Bay PackersWeek 6 · did not cover DAL −1.513–23
- Lv Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 5 · did not cover DAL −9.516–24
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 4 · covered HOU −334–30
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 3 · push BAL −331–34
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 2 · covered DAL −3.537–20
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 1 · did not cover DAL −320–28
- L@ New York Giants2025 Week 18 · did not cover DAL −317–34
- W@ Washington Commanders2025 Week 17 · did not cover DAL −8.530–23
- Lv Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 16 · did not cover DAL −1.517–34
- Lv Minnesota Vikings2025 Week 15 · did not cover DAL −5.526–34