Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Northwest Stadium
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 18:00 UK time. The model makes Los Angeles Rams 62% favourites. Line: LA −5.5.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
Sky Sports and 5 pick their Sunday games each week: Sky shows several of the 18:00 and 21:25 games (some on Sky Sports+), and 5 shows one early-evening game on 5ACTION and one late game on 5, free. NFL TV Guide
Prediction
The model gives Washington Commanders a 38.4% chance of winning and Los Angeles Rams 61.6%, with a predicted margin of LA by 3.3. The betting market has it LA 67%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders win | 38.4% | 33.1% |
| Los Angeles Rams win | 61.6% | 66.9% |
| Margin | LA by 3.3 | LA −5.5 |
| Total points | – | 47.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Los Angeles Rams by 15+ | 18% |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams by 8–14 | 14% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 4–7 | 14% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Washington Commanders by 1–3 | 12% |
| Washington Commanders by 4–7 | 11% |
| Washington Commanders by 8–14 | 9% |
| Washington Commanders by 15+ | 8% |
Most likely exact margins: LA by 3 (8.5%), WAS by 3 (7.6%) and LA by 7 (5.5%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Los Angeles Rams are 41.4% to cover the line (LA −5.5): to win by more than 5.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Commanders | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4-1 | 4-4 |
| Points per game | 22.7 | 24.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 21.0 |
| Points difference | -23 | +26 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-3 | 4-4 |
Head-to-head record
Los Angeles Rams lead 7–6 in 13 meetings since 2002. Los Angeles Rams have won the last 2.
| P | Commanders | T | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| At Washington Commanders | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
- Biggest Washington Commanders win
- Washington Redskins 24–9 St Louis Rams (2005 Week 13)
- Biggest Los Angeles Rams win
- St Louis Rams 24–0 Washington Redskins (2014 Week 14)
- Average points per meeting
- 39.6
- Washington Commanders against the spread (W-L-P)
- 5-8
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Washington Commanders 20–28 Los Angeles Rams2023 Week 15 · line LA −6.5 (Commanders did not cover)
- Los Angeles Rams 30–10 Washington Football Team2020 Week 5 · line LA −7 (Commanders did not cover)
- Washington Redskins 27–20 Los Angeles Rams2017 Week 2 · line LA −3 (Commanders covered)
- St Louis Rams 10–24 Washington Redskins2015 Week 2 · line LA −3 (Commanders covered)
- St Louis Rams 24–0 Washington Redskins2014 Week 14 · line LA −2.5 (Commanders did not cover)
- Washington Redskins 28–31 St Louis Rams2012 Week 2 · line WAS −3.5 (Commanders did not cover)
- Washington Redskins 17–10 St Louis Rams2011 Week 4 · line WAS −3 (Commanders covered)
- Washington Redskins 16–30 St Louis Rams2010 Week 3 · line WAS −4.5 (Commanders did not cover)
- St Louis Rams 7–9 Washington Redskins2009 Week 2 · line WAS −10 (Commanders did not cover)
- St Louis Rams 19–17 Washington Redskins2008 Week 6 · line WAS −12 (Commanders did not cover)
Recent games
Washington Commanders
- Wv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 8 · covered WAS −627–10
- L@ San Francisco 49ersWeek 6 · covered SF −7.517–23
- Tv New York GiantsWeek 5 · did not cover WAS −3.527–27 (OT)
- Lv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 4 · did not cover IND −4.513–30
- Wv Seattle SeahawksWeek 3 · covered SEA −8.533–31
- L@ Dallas CowboysWeek 2 · did not cover DAL −3.520–37
- L@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 1 · covered PHI −622–24
- W@ Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 18 · covered PHI −324–17
- Lv Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 17 · covered DAL −8.523–30
- Lv Philadelphia Eagles2025 Week 16 · did not cover PHI −718–29
Recent games
Los Angeles Rams
- Wv Los Angeles ChargersWeek 8 · covered LA −6.524–9
- W@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 7 · covered LA −3.535–21
- Lv Arizona CardinalsWeek 6 · did not cover LA −12.516–18
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 5 · did not cover LA −3.534–37 (OT)
- W@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 4 · covered LA −3.524–20
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 3 · did not cover DEN −1.526–30
- Wv New York GiantsWeek 2 · covered LA −6.528–6
- Lv San Francisco 49ersWeek 1 · did not cover LA −3.57–27
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Conference championships · did not cover SEA −2.527–31
- W@ Chicago Bears2025 Divisional round · did not cover LA −3.520–17 (OT)