Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Los Angeles Rams won 24–9.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Los Angeles Chargers 9–24 Los Angeles Rams
Closing line LA −6.5, total 46.5 (stayed under). Los Angeles Rams covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Los Angeles Rams a 75.9% chance of winning and Los Angeles Chargers 24.1%, with a predicted margin of LA by 8.0. The betting market had it LA 70%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams win | 75.9% | 69.6% |
| Los Angeles Chargers win | 24.1% | 30.4% |
| Margin | LA by 8.0 | LA −6.5 |
| Total points | – | 46.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Los Angeles Chargers by 15+ | 4% |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers by 8–14 | 6% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 4–7 | 8% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 1–3 | 10% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 1–3 | 12% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 4–7 | 14% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 8–14 | 17% |
| Los Angeles Rams by 15+ | 29% |
Most likely exact margins: LA by 3 (8.0%), LAC by 3 (6.1%) and LA by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Los Angeles Rams were 51.3% to cover the line (LA −6.5): to win by more than 6.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Rams | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 0-6 |
| Points per game | 24.3 | 15.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 25.2 |
| Points difference | +11 | -61 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-4 | 0-5-1 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 3 wins each in 6 meetings since 2002.
| P | Rams | T | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
- Biggest Los Angeles Rams win
- Los Angeles Chargers 23–35 Los Angeles Rams (2018 Week 3)
- Biggest Los Angeles Chargers win
- Los Angeles Rams 10–31 Los Angeles Chargers (2022 Week 17)
- Average points per meeting
- 50.2
- Los Angeles Rams against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-3
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Los Angeles Rams 10–31 Los Angeles Chargers2022 Week 17 · line LAC −6.5 (Rams did not cover)
- Los Angeles Chargers 23–35 Los Angeles Rams2018 Week 3 · line LA −7.5 (Rams covered)
- St Louis Rams 24–27 San Diego Chargers2014 Week 12 · line LAC −4 (Rams covered)
- San Diego Chargers 17–20 St Louis Rams2010 Week 6 · line LAC −9.5 (Rams covered)
- St Louis Rams 24–38 San Diego Chargers2006 Week 8 · line LAC −9.5 (Rams did not cover)
- San Diego Chargers 24–28 St Louis Rams2002 Week 10 · line LA −6 (Rams did not cover)
Recent games
Los Angeles Rams
- W@ Las Vegas RaidersWeek 7 · covered LA −3.535–21
- Lv Arizona CardinalsWeek 6 · did not cover LA −12.516–18
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 5 · did not cover LA −3.534–37 (OT)
- W@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 4 · covered LA −3.524–20
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 3 · did not cover DEN −1.526–30
- Wv New York GiantsWeek 2 · covered LA −6.528–6
- Lv San Francisco 49ersWeek 1 · did not cover LA −3.57–27
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Conference championships · did not cover SEA −2.527–31
- W@ Chicago Bears2025 Divisional round · did not cover LA −3.520–17 (OT)
- W@ Carolina Panthers2025 Wild card round · did not cover LA −1034–31
Recent games
Los Angeles Chargers
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 6 · did not cover KC −7.56–22
- Lv Denver BroncosWeek 5 · did not cover DEN −3.517–23
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 4 · push SEA −723–30
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 3 · did not cover BUF −716–24
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 2 · did not cover LAC −6.514–26
- Lv Arizona CardinalsWeek 1 · did not cover LAC −8.514–26
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Wild card round · did not cover NE −3.53–16
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Week 18 · did not cover DEN −14.53–19
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Week 17 · did not cover LAC −1.516–20
- W@ Dallas Cowboys2025 Week 16 · covered DAL −1.534–17