Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Lucas Oil Stadium
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 18:00 UK time. The model makes Indianapolis Colts 50% favourites. Line: DAL −6.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
Sky Sports and 5 pick their Sunday games each week: Sky shows several of the 18:00 and 21:25 games (some on Sky Sports+), and 5 shows one early-evening game on 5ACTION and one late game on 5, free. NFL TV Guide
Prediction
The model gives Indianapolis Colts a 50.0% chance of winning and Dallas Cowboys 50.0%, with a predicted margin of level. The betting market has it DAL 69%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts win | 50.0% | 30.9% |
| Dallas Cowboys win | 50.0% | 69.1% |
| Margin | level | DAL −6 |
| Total points | – | 51.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Dallas Cowboys by 15+ | 12% |
|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys by 8–14 | 12% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 4–7 | 13% |
| Dallas Cowboys by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 1–3 | 13% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 4–7 | 13% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 8–14 | 12% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 15+ | 12% |
Most likely exact margins: IND by 3 (8.3%), DAL by 3 (8.3%) and IND by 7 (4.9%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Dallas Cowboys are 29.1% to cover the line (DAL −6): to win by more than 6.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Colts | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-6 | 3-5 |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 27.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.8 | 26.6 |
| Points difference | -61 | +6 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 4-4 | 3-4-1 |
Head-to-head record
Dallas Cowboys lead 4–2 in 6 meetings since 2002.
| P | Colts | T | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| At Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Indianapolis Colts win
- Dallas Cowboys 0–23 Indianapolis Colts (2018 Week 15)
- Biggest Dallas Cowboys win
- Indianapolis Colts 19–54 Dallas Cowboys (2022 Week 13)
- Average points per meeting
- 46.0
- Indianapolis Colts against the spread (W-L-P)
- 2-4
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Indianapolis Colts 19–54 Dallas Cowboys2022 Week 13 · line DAL −11 (Colts did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 0–23 Indianapolis Colts2018 Week 15 · line IND −3 (Colts covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 7–42 Dallas Cowboys2014 Week 16 · line DAL −3.5 (Colts did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 38–35 Indianapolis Colts (OT)2010 Week 13 · line IND −5.5 (Colts did not cover)
- Indianapolis Colts 14–21 Dallas Cowboys2006 Week 11 · line IND −1 (Colts did not cover)
- Dallas Cowboys 3–20 Indianapolis Colts2002 Week 11 · line IND −6.5 (Colts covered)
Recent games
Indianapolis Colts
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 8 · did not cover JAX −107–42
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 7 · covered MIN −6.510–16
- Lv Tennessee TitansWeek 6 · did not cover IND −6.520–26
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 5 · did not cover PIT −322–34
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 4 · covered IND −4.530–13
- Wv Houston TexansWeek 3 · covered HOU −1.519–17
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 2 · covered KC −630–33 (OT)
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 1 · did not cover BAL −323–41
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 18 · covered HOU −9.530–38
- Lv Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 17 · did not cover JAX −3.517–23
Recent games
Dallas Cowboys
- Lv Arizona CardinalsWeek 8 · did not cover DAL −730–33 (OT)
- W@ Philadelphia EaglesWeek 7 · covered DAL −4.538–21
- L@ Green Bay PackersWeek 6 · did not cover DAL −1.513–23
- Lv Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 5 · did not cover DAL −9.516–24
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 4 · covered HOU −334–30
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 3 · push BAL −331–34
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 2 · covered DAL −3.537–20
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 1 · did not cover DAL −320–28
- L@ New York Giants2025 Week 18 · did not cover DAL −317–34
- W@ Washington Commanders2025 Week 17 · did not cover DAL −8.530–23