Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · EverBank Stadium · division game
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Jacksonville Jaguars won 42–7.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Indianapolis Colts 7–42 Jacksonville Jaguars
Closing line JAX −10, total 45.5 (went over). Jacksonville Jaguars covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Jacksonville Jaguars a 77.5% chance of winning and Indianapolis Colts 22.5%, with a predicted margin of JAX by 8.6. The betting market had it JAX 80%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars win | 77.5% | 79.6% |
| Indianapolis Colts win | 22.5% | 20.4% |
| Margin | JAX by 8.6 | JAX −10 |
| Total points | – | 45.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Indianapolis Colts by 15+ | 4% |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts by 8–14 | 6% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 4–7 | 8% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 1–3 | 9% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 1–3 | 12% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 4–7 | 14% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 8–14 | 17% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 15+ | 31% |
Most likely exact margins: JAX by 3 (7.9%), IND by 3 (5.9%) and JAX by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Jacksonville Jaguars were 39.9% to cover the line (JAX −10): to win by more than 10.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Jaguars | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 2-5 |
| Points per game | 25.7 | 22.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.3 | 25.7 |
| Points difference | +50 | -26 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-3 | 4-3 |
Head-to-head record
Indianapolis Colts lead 26–22 in 48 meetings since 2002. Jacksonville Jaguars have won the last 2.
| P | Jaguars | T | Colts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 22 | 0 | 26 |
| At Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | 14 | 0 | 9 |
- Biggest Jacksonville Jaguars win
- Indianapolis Colts 16–51 Jacksonville Jaguars (2015 Week 14)
- Biggest Indianapolis Colts win
- Indianapolis Colts 37–3 Jacksonville Jaguars (2013 Week 4)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.0
- Jacksonville Jaguars against the spread (W-L-P)
- 31-16-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 23–17 Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 17 · line JAX −3.5 (Jaguars covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 19–36 Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 14 · line IND −2.5 (Jaguars covered)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 23–26 Indianapolis Colts (OT)2024 Week 18 · line IND −3.5 (Jaguars covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 34–37 Jacksonville Jaguars2024 Week 5 · line JAX −3.5 (Jaguars did not cover)
- Indianapolis Colts 20–37 Jacksonville Jaguars2023 Week 6 · line JAX −4 (Jaguars covered)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 31–21 Indianapolis Colts2023 Week 1 · line JAX −4 (Jaguars covered)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 27–34 Indianapolis Colts2022 Week 6 · line IND −1 (Jaguars did not cover)
- Indianapolis Colts 0–24 Jacksonville Jaguars2022 Week 2 · line IND −3 (Jaguars covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 11–26 Jacksonville Jaguars2021 Week 18 · line IND −14 (Jaguars covered)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 17–23 Indianapolis Colts2021 Week 10 · line IND −10.5 (Jaguars covered)
Recent games
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Lv Houston TexansWeek 6 · did not cover JAX −2.531–34
- Wv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 5 · did not cover JAX −7.519–17
- W@ Cincinnati BengalsWeek 4 · covered CIN −2.522–17
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 3 · covered JAX −335–6
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 2 · did not cover DEN −2.513–20
- Wv Cleveland BrownsWeek 1 · covered JAX −8.534–10
- Lv Buffalo Bills2025 Wild card round · did not cover JAX −1.524–27
- Wv Tennessee Titans2025 Week 18 · covered JAX −12.541–7
- W@ Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 17 · covered JAX −3.523–17
- W@ Denver Broncos2025 Week 16 · covered DEN −3.534–20
Recent games
Indianapolis Colts
- L@ Minnesota VikingsWeek 7 · covered MIN −6.510–16
- Lv Tennessee TitansWeek 6 · did not cover IND −6.520–26
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 5 · did not cover PIT −322–34
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 4 · covered IND −4.530–13
- Wv Houston TexansWeek 3 · covered HOU −1.519–17
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 2 · covered KC −630–33 (OT)
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 1 · did not cover BAL −323–41
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 18 · covered HOU −9.530–38
- Lv Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 17 · did not cover JAX −3.517–23
- Lv San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 16 · did not cover SF −4.527–48