Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · Acrisure Stadium
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Pittsburgh Steelers won 34–22.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Indianapolis Colts 22–34 Pittsburgh Steelers
Closing line PIT −3, total 41.5 (went over). Pittsburgh Steelers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Pittsburgh Steelers a 59.0% chance of winning and Indianapolis Colts 41.0%, with a predicted margin of PIT by 2.5. The betting market had it PIT 57%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers win | 59.0% | 57.2% |
| Indianapolis Colts win | 41.0% | 42.8% |
| Margin | PIT by 2.5 | PIT −3 |
| Total points | – | 41.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Indianapolis Colts by 15+ | 9% |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts by 8–14 | 10% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 4–7 | 12% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 1–3 | 13% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 4–7 | 14% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 8–14 | 14% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 15+ | 17% |
Most likely exact margins: PIT by 3 (8.5%), IND by 3 (7.8%) and PIT by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Pittsburgh Steelers were 44.1% to cover the line (PIT −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Steelers | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Points per game | 19.3 | 25.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.8 | 26.0 |
| Points difference | -10 | -2 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-2 | 3-1 |
Head-to-head record
Pittsburgh Steelers lead 11–4 in 15 meetings since 2002.
| P | Steelers | T | Colts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 15 | 11 | 0 | 4 |
| At Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Pittsburgh Steelers win
- Indianapolis Colts 10–45 Pittsburgh Steelers (2015 Week 13)
- Biggest Indianapolis Colts win
- Pittsburgh Steelers 7–26 Indianapolis Colts (2005 Week 12)
- Average points per meeting
- 46.2
- Pittsburgh Steelers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 9-6
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Indianapolis Colts 20–27 Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 9 · line IND −3.5 (Steelers covered)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24–27 Indianapolis Colts2024 Week 4 · line PIT −2.5 (Steelers did not cover)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 13–30 Indianapolis Colts2023 Week 15 · line IND −1.5 (Steelers did not cover)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24–17 Indianapolis Colts2022 Week 12 · line IND −2.5 (Steelers covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 24–28 Pittsburgh Steelers2020 Week 16 · line IND −1 (Steelers covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 24–26 Pittsburgh Steelers2019 Week 9 · line PIT −1 (Steelers covered)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 20–17 Indianapolis Colts2017 Week 10 · line PIT −10.5 (Steelers did not cover)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 28–7 Indianapolis Colts2016 Week 12 · line PIT −8 (Steelers covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 10–45 Pittsburgh Steelers2015 Week 13 · line PIT −10 (Steelers covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 34–51 Pittsburgh Steelers2014 Week 8 · line IND −5 (Steelers covered)
Recent games
Pittsburgh Steelers
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 4 · did not cover PIT −2.524–27
- Wv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 3 · covered CIN −3.530–27
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 2 · did not cover NE −4.53–20
- Wv Atlanta FalconsWeek 1 · covered PIT −6.520–13
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Wild card round · did not cover HOU −36–30
- Wv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 18 · covered BAL −4.526–24
- L@ Cleveland Browns2025 Week 17 · did not cover PIT −4.56–13
- W@ Detroit Lions2025 Week 16 · covered DET −7.529–24
- Wv Miami Dolphins2025 Week 15 · covered PIT −328–15
- W@ Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 14 · covered BAL −5.527–22
Recent games
Indianapolis Colts
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 4 · covered IND −4.530–13
- Wv Houston TexansWeek 3 · covered HOU −1.519–17
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 2 · covered KC −630–33 (OT)
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 1 · did not cover BAL −323–41
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 18 · covered HOU −9.530–38
- Lv Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 17 · did not cover JAX −3.517–23
- Lv San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 16 · did not cover SF −4.527–48
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 15 · covered SEA −13.516–18
- L@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 14 · did not cover IND −2.519–36
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Week 13 · did not cover IND −316–20