Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Lucas Oil Stadium · division game
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Tennessee Titans won 26–20.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Tennessee Titans 26–20 Indianapolis Colts
Closing line IND −6.5, total 43.5 (went over). Tennessee Titans covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Indianapolis Colts a 74.4% chance of winning and Tennessee Titans 25.6%, with a predicted margin of IND by 7.4. The betting market had it IND 73%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts win | 74.4% | 73.4% |
| Tennessee Titans win | 25.6% | 26.6% |
| Margin | IND by 7.4 | IND −6.5 |
| Total points | – | 43.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Tennessee Titans by 15+ | 4% |
|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans by 8–14 | 6% |
| Tennessee Titans by 4–7 | 9% |
| Tennessee Titans by 1–3 | 10% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 1–3 | 12% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 4–7 | 14% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 8–14 | 16% |
| Indianapolis Colts by 15+ | 27% |
Most likely exact margins: IND by 3 (8.1%), TEN by 3 (6.3%) and IND by 7 (5.7%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Indianapolis Colts were 49.6% to cover the line (IND −6.5): to win by more than 6.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Colts | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Points per game | 24.8 | 11.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.6 | 21.8 |
| Points difference | -14 | -51 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-2 | 2-3 |
Head-to-head record
Indianapolis Colts lead 34–14 in 48 meetings since 2002. Indianapolis Colts have won the last 6.
| P | Colts | T | Titans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 34 | 0 | 14 |
| At Indianapolis Colts | 24 | 17 | 0 | 7 |
- Biggest Indianapolis Colts win
- Tennessee Titans 3–35 Indianapolis Colts (2005 Week 13)
- Biggest Tennessee Titans win
- Tennessee Titans 45–26 Indianapolis Colts (2020 Week 12)
- Average points per meeting
- 46.5
- Indianapolis Colts against the spread (W-L-P)
- 29-19
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Tennessee Titans 14–38 Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 8 · line IND −15.5 (Colts covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 41–20 Tennessee Titans2025 Week 3 · line IND −6 (Colts covered)
- Tennessee Titans 30–38 Indianapolis Colts2024 Week 16 · line IND −4 (Colts covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 20–17 Tennessee Titans2024 Week 6 · line TEN −2.5 (Colts covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 31–28 Tennessee Titans (OT)2023 Week 13 · line IND −1.5 (Colts covered)
- Tennessee Titans 16–23 Indianapolis Colts2023 Week 5 · line TEN −2.5 (Colts covered)
- Indianapolis Colts 10–19 Tennessee Titans2022 Week 7 · line TEN −2.5 (Colts did not cover)
- Tennessee Titans 24–17 Indianapolis Colts2022 Week 4 · line IND −4.5 (Colts did not cover)
- Tennessee Titans 34–31 Indianapolis Colts (OT)2021 Week 8 · line IND −3 (Colts did not cover)
- Indianapolis Colts 16–25 Tennessee Titans2021 Week 3 · line TEN −4.5 (Colts did not cover)
Recent games
Indianapolis Colts
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 5 · did not cover PIT −322–34
- Wv Washington CommandersWeek 4 · covered IND −4.530–13
- Wv Houston TexansWeek 3 · covered HOU −1.519–17
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 2 · covered KC −630–33 (OT)
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 1 · did not cover BAL −323–41
- L@ Houston Texans2025 Week 18 · covered HOU −9.530–38
- Lv Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 17 · did not cover JAX −3.517–23
- Lv San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 16 · did not cover SF −4.527–48
- L@ Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 15 · covered SEA −13.516–18
- L@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 14 · did not cover IND −2.519–36
Recent games
Tennessee Titans
- Lv Houston TexansWeek 5 · did not cover HOU −6.53–26
- L@ Baltimore RavensWeek 4 · covered BAL −11.518–24
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 3 · did not cover NYG −2.57–12
- Lv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 2 · covered PHI −720–24
- Lv New York JetsWeek 1 · did not cover TEN −1.510–23
- L@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 18 · did not cover JAX −12.57–41
- Lv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 17 · did not cover NO −1.526–34
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 16 · covered KC −3.526–9
- L@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 15 · did not cover SF −12.524–37
- W@ Cleveland Browns2025 Week 14 · covered CLE −4.531–29