Cincinnati Bengals v Atlanta Falcons
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Bernabeu
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 14:30 UK time. The model makes Cincinnati Bengals 64% favourites. Line: CIN −3.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Prediction
The model gives Atlanta Falcons a 36.1% chance of winning and Cincinnati Bengals 63.9%, with a predicted margin of CIN by 4.0. The betting market has it CIN 58%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons win | 36.1% | 41.7% |
| Cincinnati Bengals win | 63.9% | 58.3% |
| Margin | CIN by 4.0 | CIN −3 |
| Total points | – | 52.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Cincinnati Bengals by 15+ | 19% |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals by 8–14 | 15% |
| Cincinnati Bengals by 4–7 | 14% |
| Cincinnati Bengals by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 1–3 | 12% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 4–7 | 11% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 8–14 | 9% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 15+ | 7% |
Most likely exact margins: CIN by 3 (8.5%), ATL by 3 (7.4%) and CIN by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Cincinnati Bengals are 48.3% to cover the line (CIN −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Falcons | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-5 | 5-2 |
| Points per game | 21.4 | 29.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.6 | 22.6 |
| Points difference | -18 | +48 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-5 | 3-3-1 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 3 wins each in 6 meetings since 2002. Cincinnati Bengals have won the last 3.
| P | Falcons | T | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| At Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Atlanta Falcons win
- Cincinnati Bengals 3–30 Atlanta Falcons (2002 Week 3)
- Biggest Cincinnati Bengals win
- Atlanta Falcons 17–35 Cincinnati Bengals (2022 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 53.2
- Atlanta Falcons against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-3
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Atlanta Falcons 17–35 Cincinnati Bengals2022 Week 7 · line CIN −6.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Cincinnati Bengals 37–36 Atlanta Falcons2018 Week 4 · line ATL −3.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Atlanta Falcons 10–24 Cincinnati Bengals2014 Week 2 · line CIN −5.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Cincinnati Bengals 32–39 Atlanta Falcons2010 Week 7 · line ATL −3.5 (Falcons covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 29–27 Cincinnati Bengals2006 Week 8 · line CIN −3.5 (Falcons covered)
- Cincinnati Bengals 3–30 Atlanta Falcons2002 Week 3 · line ATL −7 (Falcons covered)
Recent games
Atlanta Falcons
- L@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 8 · did not cover TB −2.50–16
- Wv San Francisco 49ersWeek 7 · covered SF −2.529–20
- Lv Chicago BearsWeek 6 · did not cover CHI −1.523–31
- Lv Baltimore RavensWeek 5 · did not cover ATL −3.523–30 (OT)
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 4 · covered NO −1.545–24
- W@ Green Bay PackersWeek 3 · covered GB −4.535–14
- Lv Carolina PanthersWeek 2 · did not cover CAR −2.53–34
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 1 · did not cover PIT −6.513–20
- Wv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 18 · did not cover ATL −4.519–17
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 17 · covered LA −7.527–24
Recent games
Cincinnati Bengals
- Wv Tennessee TitansWeek 8 · did not cover CIN −13.543–36 (OT)
- W@ Baltimore RavensWeek 7 · covered CIN −335–13
- W@ Miami DolphinsWeek 5 · push CIN −731–24
- Lv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 4 · did not cover CIN −2.517–22
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 3 · did not cover CIN −3.527–30
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 2 · covered HOU −320–6
- Wv Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 1 · covered CIN −3.533–27
- Lv Cleveland Browns2025 Week 18 · did not cover CIN −9.518–20
- Wv Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 17 · covered CIN −737–14
- W@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 16 · covered CIN −3.545–21