Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · M&T Bank Stadium · division game
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Cincinnati Bengals won 35–13.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Cincinnati Bengals 35–13 Baltimore Ravens
Closing line CIN −3, total 46.5 (went over). Cincinnati Bengals covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Baltimore Ravens a 60.0% chance of winning and Cincinnati Bengals 40.0%, with a predicted margin of BAL by 2.8. The betting market had it CIN 57%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens win | 60.0% | 42.8% |
| Cincinnati Bengals win | 40.0% | 57.2% |
| Margin | BAL by 2.8 | CIN −3 |
| Total points | – | 46.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Cincinnati Bengals by 15+ | 8% |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals by 8–14 | 10% |
| Cincinnati Bengals by 4–7 | 12% |
| Cincinnati Bengals by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 1–3 | 13% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 4–7 | 14% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 8–14 | 14% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 15+ | 17% |
Most likely exact margins: BAL by 3 (8.5%), CIN by 3 (7.7%) and BAL by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Cincinnati Bengals were 29.8% to cover the line (CIN −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Ravens | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Points per game | 26.0 | 25.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 | 21.8 |
| Points difference | +24 | +19 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-3-1 | 2-2-1 |
Head-to-head record
Baltimore Ravens lead 25–24 in 49 meetings since 2002.
| P | Ravens | T | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 49 | 25 | 0 | 24 |
| At Baltimore Ravens | 24 | 15 | 0 | 9 |
- Biggest Baltimore Ravens win
- Baltimore Ravens 49–13 Cincinnati Bengals (2019 Week 10)
- Biggest Cincinnati Bengals win
- Cincinnati Bengals 41–17 Baltimore Ravens (2021 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 44.0
- Baltimore Ravens against the spread (W-L-P)
- 21-26-2
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Baltimore Ravens 24–0 Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 15 · line BAL −2.5 (Ravens covered)
- Cincinnati Bengals 32–14 Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 13 · line BAL −7 (Ravens did not cover)
- Cincinnati Bengals 34–35 Baltimore Ravens2024 Week 10 · line BAL −6 (Ravens did not cover)
- Baltimore Ravens 41–38 Cincinnati Bengals (OT)2024 Week 5 · line BAL −2.5 (Ravens covered)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20–34 Baltimore Ravens2023 Week 11 · line BAL −4 (Ravens covered)
- Baltimore Ravens 27–24 Cincinnati Bengals2023 Week 2 · line CIN −3.5 (Ravens covered)
- Baltimore Ravens 17–24 Cincinnati Bengals2022 Wild card round · line CIN −7.5 (Ravens covered)
- Baltimore Ravens 16–27 Cincinnati Bengals2022 Week 18 · line CIN −11 (Ravens push)
- Cincinnati Bengals 17–19 Baltimore Ravens2022 Week 5 · line BAL −3 (Ravens did not cover)
- Baltimore Ravens 21–41 Cincinnati Bengals2021 Week 16 · line CIN −7.5 (Ravens did not cover)
Recent games
Baltimore Ravens
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 6 · did not cover BAL −310–13
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 5 · covered ATL −3.530–23 (OT)
- Wv Tennessee TitansWeek 4 · did not cover BAL −11.524–18
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 3 · push BAL −334–31
- Lv New Orleans SaintsWeek 2 · did not cover BAL −8.517–24
- W@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 1 · covered BAL −341–23
- L@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 18 · did not cover BAL −4.524–26
- W@ Green Bay Packers2025 Week 17 · covered GB −2.541–24
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Week 16 · did not cover BAL −3.524–28
- W@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 15 · covered BAL −2.524–0
Recent games
Cincinnati Bengals
- W@ Miami DolphinsWeek 5 · push CIN −731–24
- Lv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 4 · did not cover CIN −2.517–22
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 3 · did not cover CIN −3.527–30
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 2 · covered HOU −320–6
- Wv Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 1 · covered CIN −3.533–27
- Lv Cleveland Browns2025 Week 18 · did not cover CIN −9.518–20
- Wv Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 17 · covered CIN −737–14
- W@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 16 · covered CIN −3.545–21
- Lv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 15 · did not cover BAL −2.50–24
- L@ Buffalo Bills2025 Week 14 · covered BUF −634–39