Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Paycor Stadium
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Cincinnati Bengals won 43–36 in overtime.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Tennessee Titans 36–43 Cincinnati Bengals (OT)
Closing line CIN −13.5, total 45.5 (went over). Tennessee Titans covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Cincinnati Bengals a 81.9% chance of winning and Tennessee Titans 18.1%, with a predicted margin of CIN by 10.5. The betting market had it CIN 85%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals win | 81.9% | 85.3% |
| Tennessee Titans win | 18.1% | 14.7% |
| Margin | CIN by 10.5 | CIN −13.5 |
| Total points | – | 45.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Tennessee Titans by 15+ | 3% |
|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans by 8–14 | 5% |
| Tennessee Titans by 4–7 | 7% |
| Tennessee Titans by 1–3 | 8% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Cincinnati Bengals by 1–3 | 11% |
| Cincinnati Bengals by 4–7 | 14% |
| Cincinnati Bengals by 8–14 | 17% |
| Cincinnati Bengals by 15+ | 36% |
Most likely exact margins: CIN by 3 (7.3%), CIN by 7 (5.6%) and TEN by 3 (5.1%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Cincinnati Bengals were 40.3% to cover the line (CIN −13.5): to win by more than 13.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Bengals | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 1-6 |
| Points per game | 27.2 | 15.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.3 | 22.3 |
| Points difference | +41 | -48 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-2-1 | 3-4 |
Head-to-head record
Cincinnati Bengals lead 8–5 in 13 meetings since 2002.
| P | Bengals | T | Titans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| At Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Cincinnati Bengals win
- Tennessee Titans 6–35 Cincinnati Bengals (2007 Week 12)
- Biggest Tennessee Titans win
- Cincinnati Bengals 3–27 Tennessee Titans (2023 Week 4)
- Average points per meeting
- 43.7
- Cincinnati Bengals against the spread (W-L-P)
- 9-4
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Cincinnati Bengals 37–27 Tennessee Titans2024 Week 15 · line CIN −6 (Bengals covered)
- Cincinnati Bengals 3–27 Tennessee Titans2023 Week 4 · line CIN −2.5 (Bengals did not cover)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20–16 Tennessee Titans2022 Week 12 · line CIN −1 (Bengals covered)
- Cincinnati Bengals 19–16 Tennessee Titans2021 Divisional round · line TEN −4 (Bengals covered)
- Tennessee Titans 20–31 Cincinnati Bengals2020 Week 8 · line TEN −7.5 (Bengals covered)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20–24 Tennessee Titans2017 Week 10 · line TEN −4.5 (Bengals covered)
- Tennessee Titans 7–33 Cincinnati Bengals2014 Week 3 · line CIN −6.5 (Bengals covered)
- Cincinnati Bengals 24–17 Tennessee Titans2011 Week 9 · line TEN −1.5 (Bengals covered)
- Tennessee Titans 24–7 Cincinnati Bengals2008 Week 2 · line CIN −1 (Bengals did not cover)
- Tennessee Titans 6–35 Cincinnati Bengals2007 Week 12 · line CIN −1 (Bengals covered)
Recent games
Cincinnati Bengals
- W@ Baltimore RavensWeek 7 · covered CIN −335–13
- W@ Miami DolphinsWeek 5 · push CIN −731–24
- Lv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 4 · did not cover CIN −2.517–22
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 3 · did not cover CIN −3.527–30
- W@ Houston TexansWeek 2 · covered HOU −320–6
- Wv Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 1 · covered CIN −3.533–27
- Lv Cleveland Browns2025 Week 18 · did not cover CIN −9.518–20
- Wv Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 17 · covered CIN −737–14
- W@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 16 · covered CIN −3.545–21
- Lv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 15 · did not cover BAL −2.50–24
Recent games
Tennessee Titans
- Lv Cleveland BrownsWeek 7 · did not cover CLE −1.524–27
- W@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 6 · covered IND −6.526–20
- Lv Houston TexansWeek 5 · did not cover HOU −6.53–26
- L@ Baltimore RavensWeek 4 · covered BAL −11.518–24
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 3 · did not cover NYG −2.57–12
- Lv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 2 · covered PHI −720–24
- Lv New York JetsWeek 1 · did not cover TEN −1.510–23
- L@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 18 · did not cover JAX −12.57–41
- Lv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 17 · did not cover NO −1.526–34
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 16 · covered KC −3.526–9