Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
NFL 2026 · Week 4 · · Caesars Superdome · division game
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, Week 4 of the 2026 season: Atlanta Falcons won 45–24.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Atlanta Falcons 45–24 New Orleans Saints
Closing line NO −1.5, total 47.5 (went over). Atlanta Falcons covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave New Orleans Saints a 55.4% chance of winning and Atlanta Falcons 44.6%, with a predicted margin of NO by 1.5. The betting market had it NO 53%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints win | 55.4% | 52.6% |
| Atlanta Falcons win | 44.6% | 47.4% |
| Margin | NO by 1.5 | NO −1.5 |
| Total points | – | 47.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Atlanta Falcons by 15+ | 10% |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons by 8–14 | 11% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 4–7 | 12% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New Orleans Saints by 1–3 | 13% |
| New Orleans Saints by 4–7 | 14% |
| New Orleans Saints by 8–14 | 13% |
| New Orleans Saints by 15+ | 15% |
Most likely exact margins: NO by 3 (8.5%), ATL by 3 (8.0%) and NO by 7 (5.2%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New Orleans Saints were 51.9% to cover the line (NO −1.5): to win by more than 1.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Saints | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Points per game | 27.0 | 17.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7 | 22.7 |
| Points difference | -2 | -17 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-1 | 1-2 |
Head-to-head record
New Orleans Saints lead 29–19 in 48 meetings since 2002. Atlanta Falcons have won the last 2.
| P | Saints | T | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 29 | 0 | 19 |
| At New Orleans Saints | 24 | 16 | 0 | 8 |
- Biggest New Orleans Saints win
- Atlanta Falcons 17–48 New Orleans Saints (2023 Week 18)
- Biggest Atlanta Falcons win
- New Orleans Saints 17–36 Atlanta Falcons (2005 Week 14)
- Average points per meeting
- 48.1
- New Orleans Saints against the spread (W-L-P)
- 27-21
Head-to-head (last 10)
- New Orleans Saints 17–19 Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 18 · line ATL −4.5 (Saints covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 24–10 New Orleans Saints2025 Week 12 · line NO −1.5 (Saints did not cover)
- Atlanta Falcons 17–20 New Orleans Saints2024 Week 10 · line ATL −3.5 (Saints covered)
- New Orleans Saints 24–26 Atlanta Falcons2024 Week 4 · line ATL −2.5 (Saints covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 17–48 New Orleans Saints2023 Week 18 · line NO −3.5 (Saints covered)
- New Orleans Saints 15–24 Atlanta Falcons2023 Week 12 · line NO −2 (Saints did not cover)
- Atlanta Falcons 18–21 New Orleans Saints2022 Week 15 · line NO −5 (Saints did not cover)
- New Orleans Saints 27–26 Atlanta Falcons2022 Week 1 · line NO −6 (Saints did not cover)
- New Orleans Saints 30–20 Atlanta Falcons2021 Week 18 · line NO −4.5 (Saints covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 27–25 New Orleans Saints2021 Week 9 · line NO −7 (Saints did not cover)
Recent games
New Orleans Saints
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 3 · did not cover NO −3.527–35
- W@ Baltimore RavensWeek 2 · covered BAL −8.524–17
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 1 · covered DET −730–31 (OT)
- L@ Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 18 · covered ATL −4.517–19
- W@ Tennessee Titans2025 Week 17 · covered NO −1.534–26
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 16 · covered NO −6.529–6
- Wv Carolina Panthers2025 Week 15 · covered CAR −2.520–17
- W@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 14 · covered TB −7.524–20
- L@ Miami Dolphins2025 Week 13 · covered MIA −5.517–21
- Lv Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 12 · did not cover NO −1.510–24
Recent games
Atlanta Falcons
- W@ Green Bay PackersWeek 3 · covered GB −4.535–14
- Lv Carolina PanthersWeek 2 · did not cover CAR −2.53–34
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 1 · did not cover PIT −6.513–20
- Wv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 18 · did not cover ATL −4.519–17
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 17 · covered LA −7.527–24
- W@ Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 16 · covered ATL −2.526–19
- W@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 15 · covered TB −629–28
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 14 · did not cover SEA −79–37
- L@ New York Jets2025 Week 13 · did not cover ATL −324–27
- W@ New Orleans Saints2025 Week 12 · covered NO −1.524–10