Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Baltimore Ravens won 30–23 in overtime.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Baltimore Ravens 30–23 Atlanta Falcons (OT)
Closing line ATL −3.5, total 44.5 (went over). Baltimore Ravens covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Atlanta Falcons a 50.6% chance of winning and Baltimore Ravens 49.4%, with a predicted margin of level. The betting market had it ATL 61%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons win | 50.6% | 60.9% |
| Baltimore Ravens win | 49.4% | 39.1% |
| Margin | level | ATL −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 44.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Baltimore Ravens by 15+ | 12% |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens by 8–14 | 12% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 4–7 | 13% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 1–3 | 13% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 4–7 | 13% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 8–14 | 12% |
| Atlanta Falcons by 15+ | 13% |
Most likely exact margins: ATL by 3 (8.3%), BAL by 3 (8.3%) and ATL by 7 (5.0%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Atlanta Falcons were 37.5% to cover the line (ATL −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Falcons | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Points per game | 24.0 | 29.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 | 24.0 |
| Points difference | +4 | +20 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-2 | 1-2-1 |
Head-to-head record
Baltimore Ravens lead 4–2 in 6 meetings since 2002. Baltimore Ravens have won the last 3.
| P | Falcons | T | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| At Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Atlanta Falcons win
- Baltimore Ravens 21–26 Atlanta Falcons (2010 Week 10)
- Biggest Baltimore Ravens win
- Atlanta Falcons 7–29 Baltimore Ravens (2014 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 37.0
- Atlanta Falcons against the spread (W-L-P)
- 1-5
Head-to-head (last 6)
- Atlanta Falcons 9–17 Baltimore Ravens2022 Week 16 · line BAL −6.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Baltimore Ravens 26–16 Atlanta Falcons2018 Week 13 · line ATL −2.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Atlanta Falcons 7–29 Baltimore Ravens2014 Week 7 · line BAL −7 (Falcons did not cover)
- Baltimore Ravens 21–26 Atlanta Falcons2010 Week 10 · line ATL −1 (Falcons covered)
- Atlanta Falcons 10–24 Baltimore Ravens2006 Week 11 · line BAL −3.5 (Falcons did not cover)
- Baltimore Ravens 17–20 Atlanta Falcons2002 Week 9 · line ATL −7 (Falcons did not cover)
Recent games
Atlanta Falcons
- W@ New Orleans SaintsWeek 4 · covered NO −1.545–24
- W@ Green Bay PackersWeek 3 · covered GB −4.535–14
- Lv Carolina PanthersWeek 2 · did not cover CAR −2.53–34
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 1 · did not cover PIT −6.513–20
- Wv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 18 · did not cover ATL −4.519–17
- Wv Los Angeles Rams2025 Week 17 · covered LA −7.527–24
- W@ Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 16 · covered ATL −2.526–19
- W@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers2025 Week 15 · covered TB −629–28
- Lv Seattle Seahawks2025 Week 14 · did not cover SEA −79–37
- L@ New York Jets2025 Week 13 · did not cover ATL −324–27
Recent games
Baltimore Ravens
- Wv Tennessee TitansWeek 4 · did not cover BAL −11.524–18
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 3 · push BAL −334–31
- Lv New Orleans SaintsWeek 2 · did not cover BAL −8.517–24
- W@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 1 · covered BAL −341–23
- L@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 18 · did not cover BAL −4.524–26
- W@ Green Bay Packers2025 Week 17 · covered GB −2.541–24
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Week 16 · did not cover BAL −3.524–28
- W@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 15 · covered BAL −2.524–0
- Lv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 14 · did not cover BAL −5.522–27
- Lv Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 13 · did not cover BAL −714–32