Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · M&T Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Fri 6 Nov, 01:15 UK time. The model makes Jacksonville Jaguars 60% favourites. Line: JAX −10.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Prediction
The model gives Baltimore Ravens a 39.8% chance of winning and Jacksonville Jaguars 60.2%, with a predicted margin of JAX by 2.9. The betting market has it JAX 81%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens win | 39.8% | 19.2% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars win | 60.2% | 80.8% |
| Margin | JAX by 2.9 | JAX −10 |
| Total points | – | 39.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 15+ | 17% |
|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 8–14 | 14% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 4–7 | 14% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 1–3 | 12% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 4–7 | 12% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 8–14 | 10% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 15+ | 8% |
Most likely exact margins: JAX by 3 (8.5%), BAL by 3 (7.7%) and JAX by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Jacksonville Jaguars are 24.5% to cover the line (JAX −10): to win by more than 10.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Ravens | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4 | 5-2 |
| Points per game | 22.4 | 28.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4 | 15.9 |
| Points difference | -24 | +85 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-5-1 | 4-3 |
Head-to-head record
Baltimore Ravens lead 7–5 in 12 meetings since 2002.
| P | Ravens | T | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| At Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
- Biggest Baltimore Ravens win
- Jacksonville Jaguars 14–40 Baltimore Ravens (2020 Week 15)
- Biggest Jacksonville Jaguars win
- Baltimore Ravens 7–44 Jacksonville Jaguars (2017 Week 3)
- Average points per meeting
- 37.8
- Baltimore Ravens against the spread (W-L-P)
- 5-6-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Baltimore Ravens 23–7 Jacksonville Jaguars2023 Week 15 · line BAL −4 (Ravens covered)
- Baltimore Ravens 27–28 Jacksonville Jaguars2022 Week 12 · line BAL −3.5 (Ravens did not cover)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 14–40 Baltimore Ravens2020 Week 15 · line BAL −13 (Ravens covered)
- Baltimore Ravens 7–44 Jacksonville Jaguars2017 Week 3 · line BAL −3 (Ravens did not cover)
- Baltimore Ravens 19–17 Jacksonville Jaguars2016 Week 3 · line BAL −1 (Ravens covered)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22–20 Baltimore Ravens2015 Week 10 · line BAL −4 (Ravens did not cover)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 12–20 Baltimore Ravens2014 Week 15 · line BAL −14 (Ravens did not cover)
- Baltimore Ravens 7–12 Jacksonville Jaguars2011 Week 7 · line BAL −10 (Ravens did not cover)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 7–27 Baltimore Ravens2008 Week 17 · line BAL −10.5 (Ravens covered)
- Baltimore Ravens 3–30 Jacksonville Jaguars2005 Week 10 · line JAX −8 (Ravens did not cover)
Recent games
Baltimore Ravens
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 8 · did not cover BUF −310–36
- Lv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 7 · did not cover CIN −313–35
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 6 · did not cover BAL −310–13
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 5 · covered ATL −3.530–23 (OT)
- Wv Tennessee TitansWeek 4 · did not cover BAL −11.524–18
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 3 · push BAL −334–31
- Lv New Orleans SaintsWeek 2 · did not cover BAL −8.517–24
- W@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 1 · covered BAL −341–23
- L@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 18 · did not cover BAL −4.524–26
- W@ Green Bay Packers2025 Week 17 · covered GB −2.541–24
Recent games
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 8 · covered JAX −1042–7
- Lv Houston TexansWeek 6 · did not cover JAX −2.531–34
- Wv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 5 · did not cover JAX −7.519–17
- W@ Cincinnati BengalsWeek 4 · covered CIN −2.522–17
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 3 · covered JAX −335–6
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 2 · did not cover DEN −2.513–20
- Wv Cleveland BrownsWeek 1 · covered JAX −8.534–10
- Lv Buffalo Bills2025 Wild card round · did not cover JAX −1.524–27
- Wv Tennessee Titans2025 Week 18 · covered JAX −12.541–7
- W@ Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 17 · covered JAX −3.523–17