Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Huntington Bank Field · division game
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Cleveland Browns won 13–10.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Baltimore Ravens 10–13 Cleveland Browns
Closing line BAL −3, total 39.5 (stayed under). Cleveland Browns covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Cleveland Browns a 41.2% chance of winning and Baltimore Ravens 58.8%, with a predicted margin of BAL by 2.5. The betting market had it BAL 60%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns win | 41.2% | 39.6% |
| Baltimore Ravens win | 58.8% | 60.4% |
| Margin | BAL by 2.5 | BAL −3 |
| Total points | – | 39.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Baltimore Ravens by 15+ | 16% |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens by 8–14 | 14% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 4–7 | 14% |
| Baltimore Ravens by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Cleveland Browns by 1–3 | 12% |
| Cleveland Browns by 4–7 | 12% |
| Cleveland Browns by 8–14 | 10% |
| Cleveland Browns by 15+ | 9% |
Most likely exact margins: BAL by 3 (8.5%), CLE by 3 (7.8%) and BAL by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Baltimore Ravens were 44.0% to cover the line (BAL −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Browns | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Points per game | 18.6 | 29.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.4 | 23.8 |
| Points difference | -19 | +27 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-2 | 2-2-1 |
Head-to-head record
Baltimore Ravens lead 35–13 in 48 meetings since 2002. Baltimore Ravens have won the last 3.
| P | Browns | T | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 13 | 0 | 35 |
| At Cleveland Browns | 24 | 8 | 0 | 16 |
- Biggest Cleveland Browns win
- Baltimore Ravens 3–20 Cleveland Browns (2004 Week 1)
- Biggest Baltimore Ravens win
- Baltimore Ravens 35–0 Cleveland Browns (2003 Week 16)
- Average points per meeting
- 41.0
- Cleveland Browns against the spread (W-L-P)
- 21-26-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Baltimore Ravens 23–16 Cleveland Browns2025 Week 11 · line BAL −7.5 (Browns covered)
- Cleveland Browns 17–41 Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 2 · line BAL −12.5 (Browns did not cover)
- Cleveland Browns 10–35 Baltimore Ravens2024 Week 18 · line BAL −19.5 (Browns did not cover)
- Baltimore Ravens 24–29 Cleveland Browns2024 Week 8 · line BAL −7.5 (Browns covered)
- Cleveland Browns 33–31 Baltimore Ravens2023 Week 10 · line BAL −6 (Browns covered)
- Baltimore Ravens 28–3 Cleveland Browns2023 Week 4 · line BAL −2 (Browns did not cover)
- Baltimore Ravens 3–13 Cleveland Browns2022 Week 15 · line CLE −2.5 (Browns covered)
- Cleveland Browns 20–23 Baltimore Ravens2022 Week 7 · line BAL −6.5 (Browns covered)
- Baltimore Ravens 22–24 Cleveland Browns2021 Week 14 · line CLE −3 (Browns did not cover)
- Cleveland Browns 10–16 Baltimore Ravens2021 Week 12 · line BAL −3 (Browns did not cover)
Recent games
Cleveland Browns
- L@ New York JetsWeek 5 · did not cover NYJ −2.512–17
- Wv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 4 · covered PIT −2.527–24
- Wv Carolina PanthersWeek 3 · covered CAR −2.521–18
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 2 · covered TB −8.523–19
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 1 · did not cover JAX −8.510–34
- W@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 18 · covered CIN −9.520–18
- Wv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 17 · covered PIT −4.513–6
- Lv Buffalo Bills2025 Week 16 · covered BUF −10.520–23
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 15 · did not cover CHI −7.53–31
- Lv Tennessee Titans2025 Week 14 · did not cover CLE −4.529–31
Recent games
Baltimore Ravens
- W@ Atlanta FalconsWeek 5 · covered ATL −3.530–23 (OT)
- Wv Tennessee TitansWeek 4 · did not cover BAL −11.524–18
- Wv Dallas CowboysWeek 3 · push BAL −334–31
- Lv New Orleans SaintsWeek 2 · did not cover BAL −8.517–24
- W@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 1 · covered BAL −341–23
- L@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 18 · did not cover BAL −4.524–26
- W@ Green Bay Packers2025 Week 17 · covered GB −2.541–24
- Lv New England Patriots2025 Week 16 · did not cover BAL −3.524–28
- W@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 15 · covered BAL −2.524–0
- Lv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 14 · did not cover BAL −5.522–27