Houston Texans v Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL 2026 · Week 6 · · Wembley Stadium · division game
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 6 of the 2026 season: Houston Texans won 34–31.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Houston Texans 34–31 Jacksonville Jaguars
Closing line JAX −2.5, total 42.5 (went over). Houston Texans covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Jacksonville Jaguars a 64.4% chance of winning and Houston Texans 35.6%, with a predicted margin of JAX by 4.1. The betting market had it JAX 56%. The underdog won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars win | 64.4% | 56.4% |
| Houston Texans win | 35.6% | 43.6% |
| Margin | JAX by 4.1 | JAX −2.5 |
| Total points | – | 42.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Houston Texans by 15+ | 7% |
|---|---|
| Houston Texans by 8–14 | 9% |
| Houston Texans by 4–7 | 11% |
| Houston Texans by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 1–3 | 13% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 4–7 | 14% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 8–14 | 15% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars by 15+ | 20% |
Most likely exact margins: JAX by 3 (8.5%), HOU by 3 (7.4%) and JAX by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Jacksonville Jaguars were 57.2% to cover the line (JAX −2.5): to win by more than 2.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Jaguars | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Points per game | 24.6 | 22.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.0 | 22.4 |
| Points difference | +53 | -2 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-2 | 1-4 |
Head-to-head record
Houston Texans lead 32–16 in 48 meetings since 2002.
| P | Jaguars | T | Texans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 16 | 0 | 32 |
| At Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | 9 | 0 | 14 |
- Biggest Jacksonville Jaguars win
- Houston Texans 7–45 Jacksonville Jaguars (2017 Week 15)
- Biggest Houston Texans win
- Jacksonville Jaguars 6–30 Houston Texans (2015 Week 17)
- Average points per meeting
- 41.9
- Jacksonville Jaguars against the spread (W-L-P)
- 20-27-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 29–36 Houston Texans2025 Week 10 · line JAX −1.5 (Jaguars did not cover)
- Houston Texans 10–17 Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 3 · line JAX −1.5 (Jaguars covered)
- Houston Texans 23–20 Jacksonville Jaguars2024 Week 13 · line HOU −3.5 (Jaguars covered)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 20–24 Houston Texans2024 Week 4 · line HOU −5.5 (Jaguars covered)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 24–21 Houston Texans2023 Week 12 · line JAX −1 (Jaguars covered)
- Houston Texans 37–17 Jacksonville Jaguars2023 Week 3 · line JAX −7.5 (Jaguars did not cover)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 31–3 Houston Texans2022 Week 17 · line JAX −3.5 (Jaguars covered)
- Houston Texans 13–6 Jacksonville Jaguars2022 Week 5 · line JAX −7 (Jaguars did not cover)
- Houston Texans 30–16 Jacksonville Jaguars2021 Week 15 · line JAX −6 (Jaguars did not cover)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 21–37 Houston Texans2021 Week 1 · line JAX −3.5 (Jaguars did not cover)
Recent games
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Wv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 5 · did not cover JAX −7.519–17
- W@ Cincinnati BengalsWeek 4 · covered CIN −2.522–17
- Wv New England PatriotsWeek 3 · covered JAX −335–6
- L@ Denver BroncosWeek 2 · did not cover DEN −2.513–20
- Wv Cleveland BrownsWeek 1 · covered JAX −8.534–10
- Lv Buffalo Bills2025 Wild card round · did not cover JAX −1.524–27
- Wv Tennessee Titans2025 Week 18 · covered JAX −12.541–7
- W@ Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 17 · covered JAX −3.523–17
- W@ Denver Broncos2025 Week 16 · covered DEN −3.534–20
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 15 · covered JAX −13.548–20
Recent games
Houston Texans
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 5 · covered HOU −6.526–3
- Lv Dallas CowboysWeek 4 · did not cover HOU −330–34
- L@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 3 · did not cover HOU −1.517–19
- Lv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 2 · did not cover HOU −36–20
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 1 · did not cover BUF −1.531–36
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Divisional round · did not cover NE −316–28
- W@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Wild card round · covered HOU −330–6
- Wv Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 18 · did not cover HOU −9.538–30
- W@ Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 17 · covered LAC −1.520–16
- Wv Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 16 · did not cover HOU −14.523–21