Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · Caesars Superdome
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 18:00 UK time. The model makes New Orleans Saints 51% favourites. Line: NO −1.5.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
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Prediction
The model gives New Orleans Saints a 50.9% chance of winning and Cleveland Browns 49.1%, with a predicted margin of NO by 0.3. The betting market has it NO 52%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints win | 50.9% | 51.7% |
| Cleveland Browns win | 49.1% | 48.3% |
| Margin | NO by 0.3 | NO −1.5 |
| Total points | – | 42.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Cleveland Browns by 15+ | 12% |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns by 8–14 | 12% |
| Cleveland Browns by 4–7 | 13% |
| Cleveland Browns by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New Orleans Saints by 1–3 | 13% |
| New Orleans Saints by 4–7 | 13% |
| New Orleans Saints by 8–14 | 12% |
| New Orleans Saints by 15+ | 13% |
Most likely exact margins: NO by 3 (8.3%), CLE by 3 (8.3%) and NO by 7 (5.0%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve New Orleans Saints are 48.4% to cover the line (NO −1.5): to win by more than 1.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Saints | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-5 | 5-3 |
| Points per game | 23.1 | 17.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7 | 21.6 |
| Points difference | -32 | -34 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-4 | 5-3 |
Head-to-head record
New Orleans Saints lead 4–3 in 7 meetings since 2002. New Orleans Saints have won the last 3.
| P | Saints | T | Browns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| At New Orleans Saints | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest New Orleans Saints win
- Cleveland Browns 14–35 New Orleans Saints (2024 Week 11)
- Biggest Cleveland Browns win
- Cleveland Browns 30–17 New Orleans Saints (2010 Week 7)
- Average points per meeting
- 40.6
- New Orleans Saints against the spread (W-L-P)
- 3-4
Head-to-head (last 7)
- Cleveland Browns 14–35 New Orleans Saints2024 Week 11 · line CLE −1 (Saints covered)
- New Orleans Saints 17–10 Cleveland Browns2022 Week 16 · line CLE −3 (Saints covered)
- Cleveland Browns 18–21 New Orleans Saints2018 Week 2 · line NO −10 (Saints did not cover)
- New Orleans Saints 24–26 Cleveland Browns2014 Week 2 · line NO −4.5 (Saints did not cover)
- Cleveland Browns 30–17 New Orleans Saints2010 Week 7 · line NO −12 (Saints did not cover)
- New Orleans Saints 19–14 Cleveland Browns2006 Week 1 · line CLE −3 (Saints covered)
- Cleveland Browns 24–15 New Orleans Saints2002 Week 12 · line NO −5.5 (Saints did not cover)
Recent games
New Orleans Saints
- Lv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 7 · did not cover PIT −310–16
- W@ New York GiantsWeek 6 · covered NO −1.534–27
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 5 · did not cover MIN −2.513–23
- Lv Atlanta FalconsWeek 4 · did not cover NO −1.524–45
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 3 · did not cover NO −3.527–35
- W@ Baltimore RavensWeek 2 · covered BAL −8.524–17
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 1 · covered DET −730–31 (OT)
- L@ Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 18 · covered ATL −4.517–19
- W@ Tennessee Titans2025 Week 17 · covered NO −1.534–26
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 16 · covered NO −6.529–6
Recent games
Cleveland Browns
- L@ Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 8 · did not cover PIT −3.56–27
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 7 · covered CLE −1.527–24
- Wv Baltimore RavensWeek 6 · covered BAL −313–10
- L@ New York JetsWeek 5 · did not cover NYJ −2.512–17
- Wv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 4 · covered PIT −2.527–24
- Wv Carolina PanthersWeek 3 · covered CAR −2.521–18
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 2 · covered TB −8.523–19
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 1 · did not cover JAX −8.510–34
- W@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 18 · covered CIN −9.520–18
- Wv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 17 · covered PIT −4.513–6