Pittsburgh Steelers v New Orleans Saints
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · Stade de France
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Pittsburgh Steelers won 16–10.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Pittsburgh Steelers 16–10 New Orleans Saints
Closing line PIT −3, total 43.5 (stayed under). Pittsburgh Steelers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave New Orleans Saints a 35.9% chance of winning and Pittsburgh Steelers 64.1%, with a predicted margin of PIT by 4.0. The betting market had it PIT 59%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints win | 35.9% | 40.7% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers win | 64.1% | 59.3% |
| Margin | PIT by 4.0 | PIT −3 |
| Total points | – | 43.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 15+ | 20% |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 8–14 | 15% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 4–7 | 14% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| New Orleans Saints by 1–3 | 12% |
| New Orleans Saints by 4–7 | 11% |
| New Orleans Saints by 8–14 | 9% |
| New Orleans Saints by 15+ | 7% |
Most likely exact margins: PIT by 3 (8.5%), NO by 3 (7.4%) and PIT by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Pittsburgh Steelers were 48.4% to cover the line (PIT −3): to win by more than 3.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Saints | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Points per game | 25.3 | 22.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.7 | 21.3 |
| Points difference | -26 | +9 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-3 | 4-2 |
Head-to-head record
New Orleans Saints lead 4–2 in 6 meetings since 2002.
| P | Saints | T | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| At New Orleans Saints | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
- Biggest New Orleans Saints win
- Pittsburgh Steelers 10–20 New Orleans Saints (2010 Week 8)
- Biggest Pittsburgh Steelers win
- New Orleans Saints 10–20 Pittsburgh Steelers (2022 Week 10)
- Average points per meeting
- 52.7
- New Orleans Saints against the spread (W-L-P)
- 2-3-1
Head-to-head (last 6)
- New Orleans Saints 10–20 Pittsburgh Steelers2022 Week 10 · line PIT −1 (Saints did not cover)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 28–31 New Orleans Saints2018 Week 16 · line NO −6.5 (Saints did not cover)
- New Orleans Saints 35–32 Pittsburgh Steelers2014 Week 13 · line PIT −3.5 (Saints covered)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 10–20 New Orleans Saints2010 Week 8 · line NO −1 (Saints covered)
- New Orleans Saints 31–38 Pittsburgh Steelers2006 Week 10 · line PIT −6.5 (Saints did not cover)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 29–32 New Orleans Saints2002 Week 5 · line NO −3 (Saints push)
Recent games
New Orleans Saints
- W@ New York GiantsWeek 6 · covered NO −1.534–27
- Lv Minnesota VikingsWeek 5 · did not cover MIN −2.513–23
- Lv Atlanta FalconsWeek 4 · did not cover NO −1.524–45
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 3 · did not cover NO −3.527–35
- W@ Baltimore RavensWeek 2 · covered BAL −8.524–17
- L@ Detroit LionsWeek 1 · covered DET −730–31 (OT)
- L@ Atlanta Falcons2025 Week 18 · covered ATL −4.517–19
- W@ Tennessee Titans2025 Week 17 · covered NO −1.534–26
- Wv New York Jets2025 Week 16 · covered NO −6.529–6
- Wv Carolina Panthers2025 Week 15 · covered CAR −2.520–17
Recent games
Pittsburgh Steelers
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 6 · covered PIT −2.526–19 (OT)
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 5 · covered PIT −334–22
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 4 · did not cover PIT −2.524–27
- Wv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 3 · covered CIN −3.530–27
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 2 · did not cover NE −4.53–20
- Wv Atlanta FalconsWeek 1 · covered PIT −6.520–13
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Wild card round · did not cover HOU −36–30
- Wv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 18 · covered BAL −4.526–24
- L@ Cleveland Browns2025 Week 17 · did not cover PIT −4.56–13
- W@ Detroit Lions2025 Week 16 · covered DET −7.529–24