Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
NFL 2026 · Week 7 · · Nissan Stadium
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans, Week 7 of the 2026 season: Cleveland Browns won 27–24.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Cleveland Browns 27–24 Tennessee Titans
Closing line CLE −1.5, total 36.5 (went over). Cleveland Browns covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Tennessee Titans a 39.3% chance of winning and Cleveland Browns 60.7%, with a predicted margin of CLE by 3.0. The betting market had it CLE 54%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans win | 39.3% | 45.7% |
| Cleveland Browns win | 60.7% | 54.3% |
| Margin | CLE by 3.0 | CLE −1.5 |
| Total points | – | 36.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Cleveland Browns by 15+ | 18% |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns by 8–14 | 14% |
| Cleveland Browns by 4–7 | 14% |
| Cleveland Browns by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Tennessee Titans by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tennessee Titans by 4–7 | 11% |
| Tennessee Titans by 8–14 | 10% |
| Tennessee Titans by 15+ | 8% |
Most likely exact margins: CLE by 3 (8.5%), TEN by 3 (7.7%) and CLE by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Cleveland Browns were 56.3% to cover the line (CLE −1.5): to win by more than 1.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Titans | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-5 | 4-2 |
| Points per game | 14.0 | 17.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.5 | 20.3 |
| Points difference | -45 | -16 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 3-3 | 4-2 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 6 wins each in 12 meetings since 2002.
| P | Titans | T | Browns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| At Tennessee Titans | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- Biggest Tennessee Titans win
- Tennessee Titans 43–13 Cleveland Browns (2019 Week 1)
- Biggest Cleveland Browns win
- Tennessee Titans 3–27 Cleveland Browns (2023 Week 3)
- Average points per meeting
- 47.5
- Tennessee Titans against the spread (W-L-P)
- 4-7-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Tennessee Titans 31–29 Cleveland Browns2025 Week 14 · line CLE −4.5 (Titans covered)
- Tennessee Titans 3–27 Cleveland Browns2023 Week 3 · line CLE −3.5 (Titans did not cover)
- Cleveland Browns 41–35 Tennessee Titans2020 Week 13 · line TEN −4 (Titans did not cover)
- Tennessee Titans 43–13 Cleveland Browns2019 Week 1 · line CLE −5.5 (Titans covered)
- Tennessee Titans 12–9 Cleveland Browns (OT)2017 Week 7 · line TEN −5.5 (Titans did not cover)
- Cleveland Browns 26–28 Tennessee Titans2016 Week 6 · line TEN −7.5 (Titans did not cover)
- Tennessee Titans 14–28 Cleveland Browns2015 Week 2 · line CLE −1 (Titans did not cover)
- Cleveland Browns 29–28 Tennessee Titans2014 Week 5 · line CLE −1 (Titans push)
- Tennessee Titans 31–13 Cleveland Browns2011 Week 4 · line CLE −1 (Titans covered)
- Cleveland Browns 9–28 Tennessee Titans2008 Week 14 · line TEN −14 (Titans covered)
Recent games
Tennessee Titans
- W@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 6 · covered IND −6.526–20
- Lv Houston TexansWeek 5 · did not cover HOU −6.53–26
- L@ Baltimore RavensWeek 4 · covered BAL −11.518–24
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 3 · did not cover NYG −2.57–12
- Lv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 2 · covered PHI −720–24
- Lv New York JetsWeek 1 · did not cover TEN −1.510–23
- L@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 18 · did not cover JAX −12.57–41
- Lv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 17 · did not cover NO −1.526–34
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 16 · covered KC −3.526–9
- L@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 15 · did not cover SF −12.524–37
Recent games
Cleveland Browns
- Wv Baltimore RavensWeek 6 · covered BAL −313–10
- L@ New York JetsWeek 5 · did not cover NYJ −2.512–17
- Wv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 4 · covered PIT −2.527–24
- Wv Carolina PanthersWeek 3 · covered CAR −2.521–18
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 2 · covered TB −8.523–19
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 1 · did not cover JAX −8.510–34
- W@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 18 · covered CIN −9.520–18
- Wv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 17 · covered PIT −4.513–6
- Lv Buffalo Bills2025 Week 16 · covered BUF −10.520–23
- L@ Chicago Bears2025 Week 15 · did not cover CHI −7.53–31