Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL 2026 · Week 8 · · Acrisure Stadium · division game
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 8 of the 2026 season: Pittsburgh Steelers won 27–6.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Cleveland Browns 6–27 Pittsburgh Steelers
Closing line PIT −3.5, total 38.5 (stayed under). Pittsburgh Steelers covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Pittsburgh Steelers a 65.8% chance of winning and Cleveland Browns 34.2%, with a predicted margin of PIT by 4.5. The betting market had it PIT 63%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers win | 65.8% | 63.1% |
| Cleveland Browns win | 34.2% | 36.9% |
| Margin | PIT by 4.5 | PIT −3.5 |
| Total points | – | 38.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Cleveland Browns by 15+ | 7% |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns by 8–14 | 8% |
| Cleveland Browns by 4–7 | 11% |
| Cleveland Browns by 1–3 | 11% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 1–3 | 13% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 4–7 | 14% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 8–14 | 15% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers by 15+ | 21% |
Most likely exact margins: PIT by 3 (8.5%), CLE by 3 (7.3%) and PIT by 7 (5.6%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Pittsburgh Steelers were 49.9% to cover the line (PIT −3.5): to win by more than 3.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Steelers | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Points per game | 21.9 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.7 | 20.9 |
| Points difference | +15 | -13 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 5-2 | 5-2 |
Head-to-head record
Pittsburgh Steelers lead 38–12 with 1 tie in 51 meetings since 2002. Cleveland Browns have won the last 2.
| P | Steelers | T | Browns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 51 | 38 | 1 | 12 |
| At Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 | 24 | 0 | 2 |
- Biggest Pittsburgh Steelers win
- Pittsburgh Steelers 41–0 Cleveland Browns (2005 Week 16)
- Biggest Cleveland Browns win
- Pittsburgh Steelers 10–31 Cleveland Browns (2014 Week 6)
- Average points per meeting
- 39.8
- Pittsburgh Steelers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 26-24-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24–27 Cleveland Browns2026 Week 4 · line PIT −2.5 (Steelers did not cover)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 6–13 Cleveland Browns2025 Week 17 · line PIT −4.5 (Steelers did not cover)
- Cleveland Browns 9–23 Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 6 · line PIT −5.5 (Steelers covered)
- Cleveland Browns 14–27 Pittsburgh Steelers2024 Week 14 · line PIT −6 (Steelers covered)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 19–24 Cleveland Browns2024 Week 12 · line PIT −3.5 (Steelers did not cover)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 10–13 Cleveland Browns2023 Week 11 · line CLE −2.5 (Steelers did not cover)
- Cleveland Browns 22–26 Pittsburgh Steelers2023 Week 2 · line CLE −2.5 (Steelers covered)
- Cleveland Browns 14–28 Pittsburgh Steelers2022 Week 18 · line PIT −2.5 (Steelers covered)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 17–29 Cleveland Browns2022 Week 3 · line CLE −4.5 (Steelers did not cover)
- Cleveland Browns 14–26 Pittsburgh Steelers2021 Week 17 · line CLE −1 (Steelers covered)
Recent games
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Wv New Orleans SaintsWeek 7 · covered PIT −316–10
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 6 · covered PIT −2.526–19 (OT)
- Wv Indianapolis ColtsWeek 5 · covered PIT −334–22
- L@ Cleveland BrownsWeek 4 · did not cover PIT −2.524–27
- Wv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 3 · covered CIN −3.530–27
- L@ New England PatriotsWeek 2 · did not cover NE −4.53–20
- Wv Atlanta FalconsWeek 1 · covered PIT −6.520–13
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Wild card round · did not cover HOU −36–30
- Wv Baltimore Ravens2025 Week 18 · covered BAL −4.526–24
- L@ Cleveland Browns2025 Week 17 · did not cover PIT −4.56–13
Recent games
Cleveland Browns
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 7 · covered CLE −1.527–24
- Wv Baltimore RavensWeek 6 · covered BAL −313–10
- L@ New York JetsWeek 5 · did not cover NYJ −2.512–17
- Wv Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 4 · covered PIT −2.527–24
- Wv Carolina PanthersWeek 3 · covered CAR −2.521–18
- W@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 2 · covered TB −8.523–19
- L@ Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 1 · did not cover JAX −8.510–34
- W@ Cincinnati Bengals2025 Week 18 · covered CIN −9.520–18
- Wv Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Week 17 · covered PIT −4.513–6
- Lv Buffalo Bills2025 Week 16 · covered BUF −10.520–23