Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · SoFi Stadium
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers, Week 9 of the 2026 season, Sun 8 Nov, 21:05 UK time. The model makes Houston Texans 59% favourites. Line: HOU −4.5.
Prediction made · Elo model
Where to watch (UK)
Watch live
- DAZN NFL Game Pass · Requires DAZN subscription · also via DAZN app
Game Pass blacks out one 18:00 and one 21:25 Sunday game each week (on demand 24 hours after the game); DAZN names them by Wednesday.
Sky Sports and 5 pick their Sunday games each week: Sky shows several of the 18:00 and 21:25 games (some on Sky Sports+), and 5 shows one early-evening game on 5ACTION and one late game on 5, free. NFL TV Guide
Prediction
The model gives Los Angeles Chargers a 40.9% chance of winning and Houston Texans 59.1%, with a predicted margin of HOU by 2.6. The betting market has it HOU 66%.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers win | 40.9% | 34.3% |
| Houston Texans win | 59.1% | 65.8% |
| Margin | HOU by 2.6 | HOU −4.5 |
| Total points | – | 40.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Houston Texans by 15+ | 17% |
|---|---|
| Houston Texans by 8–14 | 14% |
| Houston Texans by 4–7 | 14% |
| Houston Texans by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 1–3 | 12% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 4–7 | 12% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 8–14 | 10% |
| Los Angeles Chargers by 15+ | 9% |
Most likely exact margins: HOU by 3 (8.5%), LAC by 3 (7.8%) and HOU by 7 (5.4%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Houston Texans are 41.3% to cover the line (HOU −4.5): to win by more than 4.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season so far
| Chargers | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-7 | 2-5 |
| Points per game | 14.1 | 23.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0 | 24.3 |
| Points difference | -76 | -5 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 0-6-1 | 2-5 |
Head-to-head record
Los Angeles Chargers lead 6–5 in 11 meetings since 2002. Houston Texans have won the last 2.
| P | Chargers | T | Texans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| At Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- Biggest Los Angeles Chargers win
- Houston Texans 10–35 San Diego Chargers (2007 Week 8)
- Biggest Houston Texans win
- Los Angeles Chargers 12–32 Houston Texans (2024 Wild card round)
- Average points per meeting
- 47.2
- Los Angeles Chargers against the spread (W-L-P)
- 7-4
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Houston Texans 20–16 Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 17 · line LAC −1.5 (Chargers did not cover)
- Los Angeles Chargers 12–32 Houston Texans2024 Wild card round · line LAC −3 (Chargers did not cover)
- Los Angeles Chargers 34–24 Houston Texans2022 Week 4 · line LAC −5.5 (Chargers covered)
- Los Angeles Chargers 29–41 Houston Texans2021 Week 16 · line LAC −13.5 (Chargers did not cover)
- Houston Texans 27–20 Los Angeles Chargers2019 Week 3 · line LAC −3 (Chargers did not cover)
- San Diego Chargers 21–13 Houston Texans2016 Week 12 · line LAC −2.5 (Chargers covered)
- Houston Texans 31–28 San Diego Chargers2013 Week 1 · line HOU −5 (Chargers covered)
- San Diego Chargers 29–23 Houston Texans2010 Week 9 · line LAC −3 (Chargers covered)
- Houston Texans 10–35 San Diego Chargers2007 Week 8 · line LAC −10 (Chargers covered)
- San Diego Chargers 27–20 Houston Texans2004 Week 1 · line HOU −4.5 (Chargers covered)
Recent games
Los Angeles Chargers
- L@ Los Angeles RamsWeek 8 · did not cover LA −6.59–24
- L@ Kansas City ChiefsWeek 6 · did not cover KC −7.56–22
- Lv Denver BroncosWeek 5 · did not cover DEN −3.517–23
- L@ Seattle SeahawksWeek 4 · push SEA −723–30
- L@ Buffalo BillsWeek 3 · did not cover BUF −716–24
- Lv Las Vegas RaidersWeek 2 · did not cover LAC −6.514–26
- Lv Arizona CardinalsWeek 1 · did not cover LAC −8.514–26
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Wild card round · did not cover NE −3.53–16
- L@ Denver Broncos2025 Week 18 · did not cover DEN −14.53–19
- Lv Houston Texans2025 Week 17 · did not cover LAC −1.516–20
Recent games
Houston Texans
- Lv New York GiantsWeek 7 · did not cover HOU −1021–27 (OT)
- Wv Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 6 · covered JAX −2.534–31
- W@ Tennessee TitansWeek 5 · covered HOU −6.526–3
- Lv Dallas CowboysWeek 4 · did not cover HOU −330–34
- L@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 3 · did not cover HOU −1.517–19
- Lv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 2 · did not cover HOU −36–20
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 1 · did not cover BUF −1.531–36
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Divisional round · did not cover NE −316–28
- W@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Wild card round · covered HOU −330–6
- Wv Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 18 · did not cover HOU −9.538–30