Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
NFL 2026 · Week 5 · · Nissan Stadium · division game
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, Week 5 of the 2026 season: Houston Texans won 26–3.
Prediction made · Elo model
Result
Houston Texans 26–3 Tennessee Titans
Closing line HOU −6.5, total 37.5 (stayed under). Houston Texans covered.
What the model predicted beforehand
The model gave Tennessee Titans a 36.3% chance of winning and Houston Texans 63.7%, with a predicted margin of HOU by 3.9. The betting market had it HOU 75%. The model’s favourite won.
| Outcome | This model | Betting market |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans win | 36.3% | 25.2% |
| Houston Texans win | 63.7% | 74.8% |
| Margin | HOU by 3.9 | HOU −6.5 |
| Total points | – | 37.5 |
The model is a margin-based Elo rating walked forward over every game since 2002, with home advantage; ties are rare enough not to be priced. Betting market: the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and the spread as quoted (favourite first).
| Houston Texans by 15+ | 19% |
|---|---|
| Houston Texans by 8–14 | 15% |
| Houston Texans by 4–7 | 14% |
| Houston Texans by 1–3 | 13% |
| Tie | <1% |
| Tennessee Titans by 1–3 | 12% |
| Tennessee Titans by 4–7 | 11% |
| Tennessee Titans by 8–14 | 9% |
| Tennessee Titans by 15+ | 7% |
Most likely exact margins: HOU by 3 (8.5%), TEN by 3 (7.4%) and HOU by 7 (5.5%). NFL scores come in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3, 7, 10 and 14 come up far more often than their neighbours.
On this curve Houston Texans were 39.4% to cover the line (HOU −6.5): to win by more than 6.5.
The curve is a normal spread of results around the model’s expected margin (Stern, 1991), reweighted for the NFL’s key numbers. Its shape was fitted on 2002–2023 and checked on 2024, where it beat a plain bell curve. Because it is built from the expected margin alone, its win chances can differ by a few points from the Elo figure above, which is the one the Model Lab scores.
Form is each team’s last 5 games before this one, home and away (the season is only 17 games), oldest to newest; play-offs included.
2026 season before this game
| Titans | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Points per game | 13.8 | 21.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.8 | 27.3 |
| Points difference | -28 | -25 |
| Against the spread (W-L-P) | 2-2 | 0-4 |
Head-to-head record
The two are level at 24 wins each in 48 meetings since 2002. Houston Texans have won the last 3.
| P | Titans | T | Texans | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 48 | 24 | 0 | 24 |
| At Tennessee Titans | 24 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
- Biggest Tennessee Titans win
- Tennessee Titans 35–14 Houston Texans (2019 Week 17)
- Biggest Houston Texans win
- Tennessee Titans 14–57 Houston Texans (2017 Week 4)
- Average points per meeting
- 43.7
- Tennessee Titans against the spread (W-L-P)
- 19-28-1
Head-to-head (last 10)
- Houston Texans 16–13 Tennessee Titans2025 Week 11 · line HOU −5.5 (Titans covered)
- Tennessee Titans 0–26 Houston Texans2025 Week 4 · line HOU −7.5 (Titans did not cover)
- Houston Texans 23–14 Tennessee Titans2024 Week 18 · line TEN −2.5 (Titans did not cover)
- Tennessee Titans 32–27 Houston Texans2024 Week 12 · line HOU −8 (Titans covered)
- Tennessee Titans 3–26 Houston Texans2023 Week 17 · line HOU −5 (Titans did not cover)
- Houston Texans 19–16 Tennessee Titans (OT)2023 Week 15 · line TEN −3 (Titans did not cover)
- Houston Texans 19–14 Tennessee Titans2022 Week 16 · line TEN −3 (Titans did not cover)
- Tennessee Titans 17–10 Houston Texans2022 Week 8 · line TEN −1 (Titans covered)
- Tennessee Titans 28–25 Houston Texans2021 Week 18 · line TEN −10.5 (Titans did not cover)
- Houston Texans 22–13 Tennessee Titans2021 Week 11 · line TEN −10.5 (Titans did not cover)
Recent games
Tennessee Titans
- L@ Baltimore RavensWeek 4 · covered BAL −11.518–24
- L@ New York GiantsWeek 3 · did not cover NYG −2.57–12
- Lv Philadelphia EaglesWeek 2 · covered PHI −720–24
- Lv New York JetsWeek 1 · did not cover TEN −1.510–23
- L@ Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 18 · did not cover JAX −12.57–41
- Lv New Orleans Saints2025 Week 17 · did not cover NO −1.526–34
- Wv Kansas City Chiefs2025 Week 16 · covered KC −3.526–9
- L@ San Francisco 49ers2025 Week 15 · did not cover SF −12.524–37
- W@ Cleveland Browns2025 Week 14 · covered CLE −4.531–29
- Lv Jacksonville Jaguars2025 Week 13 · did not cover JAX −63–25
Recent games
Houston Texans
- Lv Dallas CowboysWeek 4 · did not cover HOU −330–34
- L@ Indianapolis ColtsWeek 3 · did not cover HOU −1.517–19
- Lv Cincinnati BengalsWeek 2 · did not cover HOU −36–20
- Lv Buffalo BillsWeek 1 · did not cover BUF −1.531–36
- L@ New England Patriots2025 Divisional round · did not cover NE −316–28
- W@ Pittsburgh Steelers2025 Wild card round · covered HOU −330–6
- Wv Indianapolis Colts2025 Week 18 · did not cover HOU −9.538–30
- W@ Los Angeles Chargers2025 Week 17 · covered LAC −1.520–16
- Wv Las Vegas Raiders2025 Week 16 · did not cover HOU −14.523–21
- Wv Arizona Cardinals2025 Week 15 · covered HOU −10.540–20