Should you always captain Haaland, even away at Arsenal?
Published 7 Oct 2026 · data to 7 Oct 2026
Short answer
Not every week. He is a strong default at home and when City are expected to score freely, but away at the strongest sides he blanked half the time, and always captaining him cost 129 points over four seasons.
- points a start at home
- 7.9
- points a start at home
- points a start away
- 6.2
- points a start away
- of starts blanked (2 or fewer)
- 33%
- of starts blanked (2 or fewer)
- captain points from always picking him, four seasons
- −129
- captain points from always picking him, four seasons
Peaks and troughs
Haaland’s scores bunch at both ends. Of his 127 starts, 42 ended on 2 points or fewer and 34 on 10 or more. Much of his value arrives in a handful of games: his best five matches gave 30%–40% of each season’s total, and games where he scored twice or more, about one in five, gave between a third and a half of it.
The tallest bar is the blank. The hauls on the right are what make him the most-captained player.
Show as a table
| Starts | |
|---|---|
| 0–2 points | 42 |
| 3–6 points | 30 |
| 7–9 points | 21 |
| 10–12 points | 7 |
| 13–16 points | 19 |
| 17 or more points | 8 |
| Season | Apps | Points | Best 5 games | Games with 2+ goals | Points from them | Blanks | Hauls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 35 | 272 | 88 (32%) | 9 | 137 (50%) | 8 | 11 |
| 2023/24 | 31 | 217 | 86 (40%) | 7 | 112 (52%) | 11 | 8 |
| 2024/25 | 31 | 181 | 72 (40%) | 4 | 60 (33%) | 13 | 5 |
| 2025/26 | 35 | 239 | 72 (30%) | 7 | 97 (41%) | 13 | 10 |
Where the hauls come from
At home he averaged 7.9 a start and hauled in 34%; away, 6.2 and 20%. The bigger split is how many goals City are expected to score. When the market priced City for 2.5 or more he averaged 8.6; between 1.5 and 2.5, a little over 6.
Only 5 starts came with City expected to score under 1.5, too few to read much into.
Show as a table
| Avg points a start | |
|---|---|
| City Under 1.5 (5 starts) | 5.0 |
| City 1.5 to 2 (27 starts) | 6.3 |
| City 2 to 2.5 (52 starts) | 6.3 |
| City 2.5 or more (43 starts) | 8.6 |
| Starts | Points | Goals | Blank | Haul | City goals expected | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 61 | 7.9 | 1.02 | 28% | 34% | 2.56 |
| Away | 66 | 6.2 | 0.73 | 38% | 20% | 2.08 |
Away at the big sides
Away at Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United and Newcastle he averaged 5.7 points and blanked in 11 of 22 games. At Arsenal he scored 6, 2, 6, 9: a goal in three of the four, never more.
| Season | GW | Opponent | Points | Goals | City goals expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 3 | Newcastle | 6 | 1 | 2.20 |
| 2022/23 | 11 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 2.00 |
| 2022/23 | 19 | Chelsea | 2 | 0 | 1.90 |
| 2022/23 | 20 | Man United | 2 | 0 | 1.80 |
| 2022/23 | 22 | Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 1.75 |
| 2022/23 | 23 | Arsenal | 6 | 1 | 1.45 |
| 2023/24 | 8 | Arsenal | 2 | 0 | 1.35 |
| 2023/24 | 10 | Man United | 16 | 2 | 2.00 |
| 2023/24 | 12 | Chelsea | 16 | 2 | 1.75 |
| 2023/24 | 28 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 1.90 |
| 2023/24 | 37 | Tottenham | 13 | 2 | 2.70 |
| 2024/25 | 1 | Chelsea | 7 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 2024/25 | 6 | Newcastle | 2 | 0 | 2.00 |
| 2024/25 | 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | 1.40 |
| 2024/25 | 24 | Arsenal | 6 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 2024/25 | 27 | Tottenham | 8 | 1 | 2.20 |
| 2025/26 | 5 | Arsenal | 9 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2025/26 | 12 | Newcastle | 2 | 0 | 1.80 |
| 2025/26 | 22 | Man United | 2 | 0 | 1.75 |
| 2025/26 | 24 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 1.95 |
| 2025/26 | 25 | Liverpool | 11 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 2025/26 | 32 | Chelsea | 2 | 0 | 1.85 |
What always captaining him cost
Always captaining Haaland scored 894 captain points over the four seasons; always taking the top-ranked player scored 1023. Almost all of the gap came in 2024/25, his weakest season, and in 2025/26 the two were level.
The estimate tells you when to move off him. When it ranked him first to third, he outscored the best alternative. When it ranked him 4th or lower (52 weeks), the alternative averaged 8.4 against his 5.3.
| Season | Always Haaland | Top-ranked | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 241 | 262 | −21 |
| 2023/24 | 222 | 227 | −5 |
| 2024/25 | 189 | 293 | −104 |
| 2025/26 | 242 | 241 | +1 |
| All four | 894 | 1023 | −129 |
| Estimate ranked him | Weeks | Haaland | Best alternative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranked 1st | 38 | 7.4 | 5.2 |
| Ranked 2nd | 11 | 8.6 | 6.8 |
| Ranked 3rd | 12 | 7.1 | 6.2 |
| Ranked 4th or lower | 52 | 5.3 | 8.4 |
This season
City’s two hardest away games coming up, with the market’s expected City goals at 7 October: Liverpool v Man City (gameweek 6, 11 Oct): 1.67; Arsenal v Man City (gameweek 12, 29 Nov): 1.14. Both are in the range where he has averaged about 6 points or fewer, and Arsenal away is lower than any of the 22 big away games above.
So should you captain him?
- At home, and whenever City are expected to score 2.5 or more: yes, he is the default.
- Away at the strongest sides: rank him like anyone else. If another player is clearly ahead on expected points, take him.
- Don’t judge it on one week. Even in his best fixtures he blanks a quarter of the time.
How this was worked out
Haaland’s FPL points in every Premier League match from 2022/23 to 2025/26 (127 starts). City’s expected goals for each match come from the closing betting market (average prices, margin removed). “Blank” means 2 points or fewer; “haul” 10 or more.
The captaincy comparison uses the same method as our captaincy article: gameweeks 3 to 38, candidates are the 20 most-owned players who started their last match, ranked by a simple pre-deadline estimate. “Always Haaland” captains him whenever he is a candidate and the top-ranked player otherwise (injured, dropped, or City without a fixture).