GW9 reflection 2026/27
Published Wed 4 Nov · version 2
The week in five lines
- 1 · Team goals21 goals against 28.9 expected.Ratings updated
- 2 · Positions and playing time25 players we had at 70%+ to start didn't.14 start chances moved
- 3 · Injuries, suspensions and congestionCash (Aston Villa) is now suspended.Rotation measured
- 4 · Set pieces4 changes to FPL's set-piece takers.3 to check
- 5 · CaptaincyHaaland scored 2; the underlying-form pick, Thiago, 9; last week's top scorer, Isak, 2.Premium 132 v xGI form 46
What the model changed this week
Updated automatically
Method changes since the GW9 deadline
None.
Watching and considering
- Palmer at attacking midfield: one match so far
- Mbeumo at centre-forward: one match so far
- Belloumi at right wing: one match so far
- Lower start chances after a European or cup midweek (not modelled yet; measured each week in this section)
- A source for who takes each penalty
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Team goals
21 goals against 28.9 expected. Chances (xG 28.1) were close to expectation, so most of the shortfall was finishing, which tends to even out.
Expected v chances v goals, by team
| Team | Chart | Goals v exp | xG v exp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry v SUN | +1.9 | −0.4 | |
| Hull v IPS | +0.7 | −0.5 | |
| Ipswich @ HUL | +0.6 | −0.4 | |
| Bournemouth v LEE | +0.5 | −0.2 | |
| Brentford v NFO | +0.3 | −1.3 | |
| Chelsea v MUN | +0.2 | +1.2 | |
| Tottenham v CRY | +0.1 | +1.6 | |
| Brighton @ MCI | −0.1 | −0.1 | |
| Fulham @ AVL | −0.3 | +1.0 | |
| Everton @ NEW | −0.3 | +1.1 | |
| Sunderland @ COV | −0.4 | +0.5 | |
| Arsenal @ LIV | −0.6 | −0.7 | |
| Aston Villa v FUL | −0.7 | +0.2 | |
| Crystal Palace @ TOT | −1.1 | −1.0 | |
| Nottingham Forest @ BRE | −1.1 | −0.3 | |
| Leeds @ BOU | −1.2 | −0.4 | |
| Liverpool v ARS | −1.2 | −0.1 | |
| Manchester United @ CHE | −1.4 | −0.2 | |
| Newcastle v EVE | −1.6 | −0.3 | |
| Manchester City v BHA | −2.1 | −0.5 |
Signal: chances
Tottenham made 3.5 xG against 1.9 expected and scored 2. Chance creation running ahead of the market is the kind of result that can move a rating.
Noise: finishing
Coventry scored 3 from 0.7 xG (expected 1.1). A big week for their attackers, but finishing streaks rarely carry into the next match.
The season so far: where the market has been wrong
Season xG compared with the goals the closing prices expected, per team. These are the gaps the ratings can still close.
Creating more than expected
- Brighton+4.3
- Bournemouth+3.5
- Sunderland+3.3
- Nottingham Forest+3.2
Creating less than expected
- Newcastle−4.0
- Liverpool−3.1
- Arsenal−2.6
- Tottenham−2.6
Allowing less than expected
- Hull+4.0
- Nottingham Forest+3.8
- Bournemouth+3.4
- Coventry+3.3
Allowing more than expected
- Crystal Palace−4.3
- Manchester United−3.3
- Newcastle−3.2
- Sunderland−2.5
What changes in the model
Team ratings come from bookmakers’ closing prices, not results, so they move when the market’s view moves: results backed by chances tend to move it, finishing luck mostly doesn’t.
Biggest movers since the deadline, and what that does to their next five fixtures (GW10–14):
| Liverpool | 1.78 → 1.84 | 1.27 → 1.27 | 8.7 → 9.1 | 6.4 → 6.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 1.10 → 1.13 | 1.86 → 1.88 | 5.8 → 6.0 | 9.0 → 9.0 |
| Arsenal | 1.97 → 1.96 | 0.86 → 0.89 | 10.2 → 10.1 | 4.7 → 4.8 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1.25 → 1.27 | 1.42 → 1.41 | 6.2 → 6.3 | 7.6 → 7.5 |
| Brentford | 1.57 → 1.56 | 1.40 → 1.42 | 6.8 → 6.8 | 8.3 → 8.4 |
| Newcastle | 1.46 → 1.45 | 1.58 → 1.55 | 6.7 → 6.7 | 8.3 → 8.2 |
Attack and conceding are goals per match against an average side, at the deadline → now.
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Positions and playing time
25 players we had at 70%+ to start didn't. 1 was flagged by FPL beforehand. Cherki (75%, 35% owned) was the costly one. Palmer played attacking midfield instead of right wing.
- start forecast error (Brier) over 669 players; 0.25 is a coin flip
- 0.092
- at 70%+ to start who didn’t (1 flagged by FPL)
- 25
- started from under 30%
- 26
- played a different line from the model’s
- 9
Expected to start, didn’t
| Cherki Manchester City | 75% | 35 |
|---|---|---|
| Guéhi Manchester City | 96% | 0 |
| Wissa Newcastle | 83% | 26 |
| Muñoz Nottingham Forest | 90% | 45 |
| Thiaw Newcastle | 83% | 0 |
| Henderson Chelsea | 76% | 0 |
Started against the odds
| Costinha Brighton | 2% | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| Iroegbunam Hull | 9% | 8 |
| Palestra Chelsea | 4% | 6 |
| Estêvão Chelsea | 1% | 3 |
| Henderson Crystal Palace | 3% | 3 |
| James Leeds | 1% | 2 |
Played a different line
| Model | Played | |
|---|---|---|
| Palmer Chelsea | RW | AM |
| Mbeumo Manchester United | RW | CF |
| Belloumi Hull | RWB | RW |
| Cunha Manchester United | CF | LW |
| Neto Chelsea | RWB | CF |
| Mendy Hull | LW | LCB |
Plus 23 who changed position within the same line.
Taken off early (3)
| Yeremy Crystal Palace | 75′ | 59′ |
|---|---|---|
| Gray Tottenham | 72′ | 45′ |
| Schlager Nottingham Forest | 76′ | 45′ |
What changes in the model
GW10 start chances that moved most since the deadline, and why:
| Why | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Henderson Crystal Palace | 3% | 96% | start record 4 of 6 |
| Cash Aston Villa | 82% | 0% | Suspended until 21 Nov |
| Martinez Manchester United | 81% | 0% | Suspended until 22 Nov |
| Konsa Arsenal | 91% | 34% | start record 7 of 9 |
| Mainoo Manchester United | 20% | 77% | fit again (FPL flag cleared) |
| Eze Arsenal | 40% | 9% | start record 2 of 9 |
| Stach Leeds | 40% | 70% | fit again (FPL flag cleared) |
| Henderson Chelsea | 76% | 49% | Illness - 75% chance of playing |
WatchingPalmer at attacking midfield: one match so far. A new position is recorded as one the player also plays; if it repeats, his role (and goal share) changes.
WatchingMbeumo at centre-forward: one match so far. A new position is recorded as one the player also plays; if it repeats, his role (and goal share) changes.
WatchingBelloumi at right wing: one match so far. A new position is recorded as one the player also plays; if it repeats, his role (and goal share) changes.
3 of 5
Injuries, suspensions and congestion
Cash (Aston Villa) is now suspended. 13 teams played midweek before GW9; their likely starters made only 101 of the 106 starts we expected.
New or worse since the deadline
| Now | |
|---|---|
| Cash Aston Villa | suspendedSuspended until 21 Nov |
| Henderson Chelsea | doubtfulIllness - 75% chance of playing |
| Mateta Crystal Palace | suspendedSuspended until 2 Dec |
| Martinez Manchester United | suspendedSuspended until 22 Nov |
Back
Calafiori, Szoboszlai, Rice, Tzolis, Branthwaite, Stach, Mainoo
Sent off
Mateta (Crystal Palace), Martinez (Manchester United), J.Ramsey (Newcastle), Alderete (Sunderland)
Fixture congestion
Before GW9, 13 teams had a cup or European match:
| Aston Villa | Wed 28 Oct: Bournemouth (a) Carabao Cup | Sat 20:00: Fulham (h) | 3 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | Wed 28 Oct: Aston Villa (h) Carabao Cup | Sat 15:00: Leeds (h) | 3 days |
| Brentford | Wed 28 Oct: Sunderland (a) Carabao Cup | Sat 15:00: Nottingham Forest (h) | 3 days |
| Brighton | Wed 28 Oct: Manchester City (a) Carabao Cup | Sat 15:00: Manchester City (a) | 3 days |
| Chelsea | Wed 28 Oct: Liverpool (a) Carabao Cup | Sat 12:30: Manchester United (h) | 3 days |
| Crystal Palace | Wed 28 Oct: Fulham (a) Carabao Cup | Sat 17:30: Tottenham (a) | 3 days |
| Fulham | Wed 28 Oct: Crystal Palace (h) Carabao Cup | Sat 20:00: Aston Villa (a) | 3 days |
| Manchester City | Wed 28 Oct: Brighton (h) Carabao Cup | Sat 15:00: Brighton (h) | 3 days |
| Sunderland | Wed 28 Oct: Brentford (h) Carabao Cup | Sat 15:00: Coventry (a) | 3 days |
| Everton | Thu 29 Oct: Newcastle (h) Carabao Cup | Mon 20:00: Newcastle (a) | 4 days |
| Liverpool | Wed 28 Oct: Chelsea (h) Carabao Cup | Sun 16:30: Arsenal (h) | 4 days |
| Newcastle | Thu 29 Oct: Everton (a) Carabao Cup | Mon 20:00: Everton (h) | 4 days |
| Arsenal | Tue 27 Oct: Fleetwood Town (a) Carabao Cup | Sun 16:30: Liverpool (a) | 5 days |
Did they rotate?
| Teams | Likely starters | Expected starts | Started | Rate v expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Played midweek (13) | 119 | 106.5 | 101 | −5% |
| Didn’t (7) | 64 | 57.0 | 57 | 0% |
One gameweek is a small sample; this builds week by week into the evidence for whether to model congestion.
Before GW10, 9 teams play midweek: rest days and the teams affected are in the GW10 preview.
What changes in the model
- Injuries and suspensions feed straight into start chances (see the start-chance moves above).
- Midweek matches are not modelled. Start chances ignore rest days. Each reflection now compares how often likely starters at teams with a midweek match actually started against teams without one; if they start noticeably less over several weeks, that is the case for adding it to the model.
Price changes since the deadline (22)
| Rogers Chelsea | £8.1m | £8.2m | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| De Cuyper Brighton | £5.3m | £5.4m | 45.1% |
| João Pedro Chelsea | £7.8m | £7.7m | 39.7% |
| Cherki Manchester City | £8.0m | £7.9m | 35.4% |
| Tavernier Bournemouth | £6.5m | £6.6m | 27.7% |
| N.Jackson Aston Villa | £6.9m | £7.0m | 26.1% |
| Konsa Arsenal | £4.7m | £4.8m | 23.1% |
| Isak Liverpool | £9.1m | £9.2m | 21.8% |
| Evanilson Bournemouth | £6.3m | £6.4m | 18.2% |
| Van Hecke Tottenham | £4.9m | £5.0m | 11.3% |
| Belloumi Hull | £5.2m | £5.3m | 10.2% |
| Kayode Brentford | £4.6m | £4.5m | 6.8% |
| N.Williams Nottingham Forest | £5.0m | £4.9m | 5.7% |
| Gonzalo Fulham | £6.0m | £5.9m | 4.4% |
| King Fulham | £5.6m | £5.5m | 3.6% |
| Silva Bournemouth | £5.0m | £5.1m | 2.6% |
| Kudus Tottenham | £6.5m | £6.6m | 1.7% |
| Thiaw Newcastle | £5.0m | £4.9m | 1.6% |
| Aina Nottingham Forest | £4.3m | £4.2m | 1.5% |
| Mosquera Arsenal | £5.2m | £5.1m | 1.2% |
| Igor Jesus Nottingham Forest | £5.7m | £5.6m | 1.1% |
| Ballard Sunderland | £4.8m | £4.7m | 1% |
4 of 5
Set pieces
4 changes to FPL's set-piece takers. 1 penalty missed. Our penalty taker differs from FPL's at 2 clubs.
Hull · Free kicks
Giles → Belloumi
Ours: Giles (direct free kicks)
To checkSunderland · Free kicks
N.Angulo → Xhaka
Ours: N.Angulo (direct free kicks)
To checkCoventry · Corners, indirect FKs
Grimes → Rudoni
Ours: Grimes (left corners), Torp (right corners), Grimes (indirect free kicks)
To checkHull · Corners, indirect FKs
Slater → Belloumi
Ours: Slater (left corners), Belloumi (right corners), Slater (indirect free kicks)
Agrees on right corners
- penalties missed: McGinn
- 1
- clubs where our penalty taker differs from FPL’s
- 2
- our set-piece hierarchy last reviewed
- Sat 19 Sept
What changes in the model
The projection gives set-piece chances to the takers in our own hierarchy (left and right corners, free kicks, penalties), which is reviewed by hand. FPL’s order is a cross-check, not an input.
To check: Hull (free kicks: FPL now has Belloumi); Sunderland (free kicks: FPL now has Xhaka); Coventry (corners, indirect fks: FPL now has Rudoni). Until ours changes, the projection keeps the old taker.
Penalty takers that differ: Coventry (FPL Rudoni; ours Wright); Newcastle (FPL Wissa; ours Osula).
We can’t see who took each penalty. FPL’s data doesn’t say which goals were penalties, so a new taker only shows up when FPL changes its order. A source for penalty events would let us spot it sooner.
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Captaincy
Haaland scored 2; the underlying-form pick, Thiago, 9; last week's top scorer, Isak, 2. Havertz (6% owned) and Thiago (9% owned) were the best captains with 9. João Pedro has blanked 3 weeks running. Since GW2, captaining the premium every week has 132 captain points; underlying form 46 and chasing last week's top scorer 42.
This week: the range at the deadline, and where each landed
| Candidate | Range | ≤2 | 10+ | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland most captained | 2% | 26% | 2 | |
| Thiago underlying form | 4% | 12% | 9 | |
| Isak last week's top scorer | 9% | 8% | 2 | |
| Rogers 52% owned | 4% | 8% | 9 | |
| Havertz best this week | 25% | 8% | 9 |
≤2: chance of 2 points or fewer. 10+: chance of 10 or more (before doubling). From 20,000 simulated gameweeks using the projections at the deadline.
Season so far: return and volatility (GW2–9)
| Premium every week | 132 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underlying form | 46 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 0 |
| Last week's top scorer | 42 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| Hindsight best | 216 | 13.5 | 4.6 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 6 |
- Premium every week: FPL's most-captained player each gameweek.
- Underlying form: most expected goal involvements (xGI) over the previous 4 gameweeks, among midfielders and forwards who cost £7.0m+ at the start of the season, played 180+ minutes in them and started their last match; never the premium.
- Last week's top scorer: most points in the previous gameweek among the same players; never the premium.
- Hindsight best: the top scorer among those players and the premium (a ceiling, not a strategy).
- Model's top projection: the highest projection at each deadline (saved from GW6).
- Per week, worst and best are points before doubling; spread is the standard deviation; a blank is 2 points or fewer.
The model’s top projection has been saved since GW6: 50 captain points so far against 58 for the premium in the same weeks.
Reliable or explosive: the captain options, week by week
| Haaland | 2 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 68 | 8 | 2 | 1 now | 19% (GW2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isak | 2 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 53 | 8 | 4 | 1 now | 25% (GW3) |
| Rogers | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 50 | 6 | 3 | – | 18% (GW6) |
| João Pedro | 11 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 3 now | 26% (GW4) |
| Cherki | 8 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 3 | 4 | 3 now | 31% (GW2) |
| Palmer | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -1 | 8 | 45 | 5 | 4 | – | 29% (GW1) |
| Havertz | 6 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 2 | 6 | – | 27% (GW9) |
| Thiago | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 4 | – | 28% (GW9) |
Red: 2 points or fewer. Green: 10 or more. Best week: the share of his season’s points that came in his best gameweek; a player whose total leans on one week has only paid off for managers who captained him that week.
Blanks barely run in streaks. From 2022/23 to 2025/26, £9m+ players who played an hour blanked 35% of the time; after one blank it was 38%, after two 40%, and after a return 33%. A run of blanks is a reason to look at minutes and chances, not a forecast on its own.
Over four seasons
The most-captained player blanked in 27.7% of gameweeks from 2022/23 to 2025/26 and was the best choice in only 19.9%, yet scored the most over the four seasons. A few weeks of this season decide very little. See should you always captain the top pick and should you always captain Haaland.
Week by week
| Premium | xGI form | Last top scorer | Model | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland 2 | – | – | – | Palmer 13 |
| 2 | Haaland 13 | Szoboszlai 4 | Palmer 7 | – | B.Fernandes 23 |
| 3 | Haaland 9 | B.Fernandes 2 | B.Fernandes 2 | – | Isak 13 |
| 4 | Haaland 9 | B.Fernandes 2 | Isak 2 | – | João Pedro 12 |
| 5 | Haaland 6 | B.Fernandes 2 | João Pedro 0 | – | Semenyo 17 |
| 6 | Haaland 6 | B.Fernandes 1 | Semenyo 3 | Saka 2 | Doku 12 |
| 7 | Haaland 13 | Saka 3 | João Pedro 2 | Haaland 13 | Haaland 13 |
| 8 | Haaland 8 | Saka 0 | Rice 3 | Haaland 8 | Isak 9 |
| 9 | Haaland 2 | Thiago 9 | Isak 2 | Haaland 2 | Havertz 9 |
How this was worked out
Generated from the data on Wed 4 Nov; nothing is written by hand. Expected goals at the deadline: deadline snapshot (market goals). Start chances and roles are the ones the projections had at the deadline (Sat 31 Oct). xG is FPL’s. Team ratings come from bookmakers’ closing prices, including this gameweek’s. Players listed are owned by 1%+ or among the 50 highest projected for the next five gameweeks.
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