GW10 preview 2026/27

Published Thu 5 Nov

Deadline Fri 6 Nov, 18:30. Updated after each projection run until the deadline (this version Thu 5 Nov).

This gameweek

Haaland leads the captaincy table on 7.2 projected points and a 17% chance of outscoring the other seven.
The most one-sided fixture: Arsenal against Hull, 2.9 goals expected for Arsenal.
6 teams play this gameweek on three days' rest or less after a midweek match: Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Sunderland.
Cash (Aston Villa, 4.0% owned): Suspended until 21 Nov.

What’s changed since GW9

Availability

Availability changes since the last deadline
	Change
Calafiori Arsenal	doubtful → available
Szoboszlai Liverpool	doubtful → available
Rice Arsenal	doubtful → available
Cash Aston Villa	available → suspended Suspended until 21 Nov
Tzolis Arsenal	doubtful → available
Branthwaite Everton	doubtful → available
Stach Leeds	doubtful → available
Henderson Chelsea	available → doubtful Illness - 75% chance of playing
Mukiele Sunderland	doubtful → doubtful Concussion - 75% chance of playing
Mateta Crystal Palace	available → suspended Suspended until 2 Dec
Mainoo Manchester United	doubtful → available
Martinez Manchester United	available → suspended Suspended until 22 Nov

Prices

Price changes since the last deadline

Rogers Chelsea	£8.1m	£8.2m	52.7%
De Cuyper Brighton	£5.3m	£5.4m	45.2%
João Pedro Chelsea	£7.8m	£7.7m	39.1%
Cherki Manchester City	£8.0m	£7.9m	35.1%
Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.5m	£6.6m	28%
N.Jackson Aston Villa	£6.9m	£7.0m	26.4%
Konsa Arsenal	£4.7m	£4.8m	23.3%
Isak Liverpool	£9.1m	£9.2m	22%
Evanilson Bournemouth	£6.3m	£6.4m	18.6%
Van Hecke Tottenham	£4.9m	£5.0m	11.6%
Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest	£7.9m	£7.8m	10.5%
Belloumi Hull	£5.2m	£5.3m	10.1%
Kayode Brentford	£4.6m	£4.5m	6.8%
N.Williams Nottingham Forest	£5.0m	£4.9m	5.6%
Maguire Manchester United	£4.7m	£4.6m	5.5%
Gonzalo Fulham	£6.0m	£5.9m	4.3%
King Fulham	£5.6m	£5.5m	3.6%
Silva Bournemouth	£5.0m	£5.1m	2.7%
Kudus Tottenham	£6.5m	£6.6m	1.8%
Thiaw Newcastle	£5.0m	£4.9m	1.6%
Aina Nottingham Forest	£4.3m	£4.2m	1.5%
Mosquera Arsenal	£5.2m	£5.1m	1.2%
Igor Jesus Nottingham Forest	£5.7m	£5.6m	1.1%
Ballard Sunderland	£4.8m	£4.7m	1%

Set-piece takers: Hull free kicks Giles → Belloumi; Sunderland free kicks N.Angulo → Xhaka; Coventry corners Grimes → Rudoni; Hull corners Slater → Belloumi
Model changes: none.

Fixtures

Expected goals for each side, read off the betting market where it prices the match, with each side’s chance of a clean sheet and FPL’s difficulty rating (FDR). Why both: xG or FDR?

Fixtures: expected goals, clean-sheet chance and FDR
			FDR
Everton v Coventry	1.9–1.1	35%/16%	2/3
Leeds v Tottenham	1.5–1.3	27%/23%	3/3
Arsenal v Hull	2.9–0.5	58%/6%	2/5
Fulham v Newcastle	1.5–1.5	23%/22%	3/3
Nottingham Forest v Manchester City	1.1–1.9	15%/34%	4/2
Sunderland v Chelsea	1.1–1.5	21%/32%	4/3
Brighton v Brentford	1.7–1.3	27%/18%	3/4
Crystal Palace v Liverpool	1.1–2.0	14%/32%	4/2
Ipswich v Bournemouth	1.2–1.7	19%/31%	3/2
Manchester United v Aston Villa	1.9–1.2	30%/14%	3/3

Midweek matches

Teams with a cup or European match before their GW10 game, and the rest in between. The projections don’t adjust start chances for this yet, so regular starters at teams on three days’ rest may be a little high. Each reflection measures whether they were rotated.

Teams with a cup or European match before their next league match

Arsenal	Wed 4 Nov: Slavia Praha (a) Champions League	Sat 15:00: Hull (h)	3 days
Bournemouth	Thu 5 Nov: Sparta Praha (a) Europa League	Sun 14:00: Ipswich (a)	3 days
Brighton	Thu 5 Nov: Getafe (a) Conference League	Sun 14:00: Brentford (h)	3 days
Crystal Palace	Thu 5 Nov: Hoffenheim (h) Europa League	Sun 14:00: Liverpool (h)	3 days
Manchester City	Wed 4 Nov: RB Leipzig (a) Champions League	Sat 17:30: Nottingham Forest (a)	3 days
Sunderland	Thu 5 Nov: GNK Dinamo (h) Europa League	Sun 14:00: Chelsea (h)	3 days
Liverpool	Wed 4 Nov: Fenerbahçe (a) Champions League	Sun 14:00: Crystal Palace (a)	4 days
Aston Villa	Tue 3 Nov: Barcelona (a) Champions League	Sun 16:30: Manchester United (a)	5 days
Manchester United	Tue 3 Nov: Roma (h) Champions League	Sun 16:30: Aston Villa (h)	5 days

Coming up: Champions League and Conference League and Europa League before GW12 (9 teams, Tue 24 Nov–Thu 26 Nov).

Captaincy

The eight highest projections, and how often each scores the most of the eight across 20,000 simulated gameweeks (team goals shared, so teammates rise and fall together). The top projection is the best pick on average, but rarely by much: see should you always captain the top pick.

Captaincy: projected points and chance of the top score

Haaland Manchester City3 days’ rest	7.2	17%	5%	1	97%	79%
Ødegaard Arsenal3 days’ rest	7.1	19%	11%	–	93%	16.5%
Barry Everton	6.6	13%	7%	–	94%	7.7%
Tavernier Bournemouth3 days’ rest	6.4	14%	4%	–	97%	28%
Havertz Arsenal3 days’ rest	6.2	12%	20%	–	82%	5.7%
Isak Liverpool4 days’ rest	6.2	11%	8%	1	92%	22%
Mbeumo Manchester United5 days’ rest	5.5	9%	4%	2	97%	20.3%
Gabriel Arsenal3 days’ rest	5.5	6%	11%	–	96%	24.6%

Best picks by position

Projected points for this gameweek, the next five and the next ten, ranked on the next five.

Goalkeepers

Best GK picks

Raya Arsenal	£6.2m	5.5	22.6	46.8
Verbruggen Brighton	£4.6m	3.7	19.1	38.1
Trafford Leeds	£5.0m	3.9	18.7	38.4
Suzuki Aston Villa	£5.0m	2.8	18.4	34.8
Lammens Manchester United	£4.8m	3.8	18.0	36.1
Petrović Bournemouth	£4.5m	3.5	17.7	33.8
Donnarumma Manchester City	£5.5m	3.7	17.5	36.1
Pickford Everton	£5.5m	4.1	17.2	33.9

Defenders

Best DEF picks

Gabriel Arsenal	£8.0m	5.5	22.3	46.0
De Cuyper Brighton	£5.4m	4.1	20.5	41.0
Hill Bournemouth	£5.5m	3.9	19.8	38.0
Vuskovic Brighton	£5.2m	3.7	18.9	37.7
Van Hecke Tottenham	£5.0m	3.5	18.7	35.6
Silva Bournemouth	£5.1m	3.6	18.4	35.2
Truffert Bournemouth	£5.4m	3.6	18.2	34.8
Muharemović Leeds	£5.1m	3.7	17.8	36.4

Midfielders

Best MID picks

Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.6m	6.4	31.1	59.9
Mbeumo Manchester United	£7.9m	5.5	27.4	52.2
Ødegaard Arsenal	£6.7m	7.1	27.2	53.1
Palmer Chelsea	£9.8m	4.9	26.0	53.1
B.Fernandes Manchester United	£11.7m	5.4	25.0	47.0
Groß Brighton	£6.2m	5.0	24.3	48.8
Rogers Chelsea	£8.2m	4.5	23.4	47.4
E.Le Fée Sunderland	£5.7m	4.6	23.4	49.4

Forwards

Best FWD picks

Haaland Manchester City	£15.8m	7.2	35.7	75.1
Isak Liverpool	£9.2m	6.2	28.7	60.3
Barry Everton	£5.6m	6.6	27.6	52.0
Calvert-Lewin Leeds	£6.1m	5.4	26.6	52.6
Evanilson Bournemouth	£6.4m	5.2	25.7	50.0
N.Jackson Aston Villa	£7.0m	4.3	25.1	48.5
Havertz Arsenal	£7.4m	6.2	24.4	49.0
Kostoulas Brighton	£5.8m	4.9	23.8	47.7

Value

Most projected points per million over five gameweeks

Barry Everton	£5.6m	6.6	27.6	52.0	4.93
Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.6m	6.4	31.1	59.9	4.71
Calvert-Lewin Leeds	£6.1m	5.4	26.6	52.6	4.36
Verbruggen Brighton	£4.6m	3.7	19.1	38.1	4.15
E.Le Fée Sunderland	£5.7m	4.6	23.4	49.4	4.11
Kostoulas Brighton	£5.8m	4.9	23.8	47.7	4.10
Ødegaard Arsenal	£6.7m	7.1	27.2	53.1	4.06
Emersonn Ipswich	£5.5m	4.3	22.1	42.6	4.02

Differentials

Highest projected players owned by under 5%

E.Le Fée Sunderland	£5.7m	4.6	23.4	49.4	2.7%
Emersonn Ipswich	£5.5m	4.3	22.1	42.6	3.1%
Marmoush Tottenham	£7.0m	3.9	22.0	43.4	2.7%
Welbeck Chelsea	£5.8m	4.5	21.0	35.1	0.8%
Garner Everton	£6.0m	4.7	20.9	40.5	0.2%
Iwobi Fulham	£5.4m	4.6	20.2	40.2	1.5%
Gonzalo Fulham	£5.9m	4.6	20.0	39.7	4.3%
Hill Bournemouth	£5.5m	3.9	19.8	38.0	2.6%

Value and differentials: players at least 70% to start.

Minutes watch

Popular or highly projected players under 70% to start
			Why
João Pedro Chelsea	0%	39.1%	Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Cherki Manchester City	64%	35.1%	started 6 of 9 available
Konsa Arsenal	16%	23.3%	pecking order
Dubravka Tottenham	2%	15.6%	started 0 of 9 available
O'Reilly Manchester City	54%	8.3%	started 4 of 9 available
Thomas Coventry	41%	8.1%	Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
Gakpo Liverpool	62%	6.9%	pecking order
Saka Arsenal	0%	6.2%	Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Semenyo Manchester City	0%	6.1%	Knee injury - Unknown return date
Hughes Crystal Palace	2%	5.7%	started 0 of 9 available
Lacroix Chelsea	0%	5.1%	Hamstring injury - Unknown return date

The next ten gameweeks

Each side’s expected goals in every fixture from GW10 to GW19, darker for more goals (under 1.0, 1.0–1.5, 1.5–2.0, 2.0+). Opponents in capitals are at home.

Expected goals by fixture for the next ten gameweeks
Team	For, 5 GW	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17	GW18	GW19
Arsenal	10.1	HUL 2.9	new 2.0	MCI 1.7	bre 1.8	tot 1.8	BOU 2.0	MUN 2.0	cry 2.1	ful 2.0	IPS 2.7
Manchester City	9.7	nfo 1.9	FUL 2.5	ars 1.2	LEE 2.2	bre 1.9	CHE 2.1	HUL 3.1	new 2.1	eve 1.9	TOT 2.3
Chelsea	8.8	sun 1.5	LEE 1.8	nfo 1.6	CRY 2.2	LIV 1.7	mci 1.3	AVL 2.0	cov 2.1	ips 2.0	NEW 2.1
Liverpool	9.1	cry 2.0	MUN 1.9	eve 1.7	SUN 1.9	che 1.6	LEE 1.9	TOT 2.0	hul 2.3	avl 1.8	COV 2.6
Bournemouth	8.3	ips 1.7	NFO 1.6	ful 1.5	BHA 1.4	HUL 2.1	ars 0.8	COV 2.1	tot 1.3	cry 1.6	AVL 1.7
Manchester United	9.1	AVL 1.9	liv 1.4	BRE 1.8	new 1.7	COV 2.4	cry 1.8	ars 0.9	NFO 1.8	SUN 1.8	bha 1.4
Brighton	8.4	BRE 1.7	hul 2.0	NEW 1.9	bou 1.4	nfo 1.4	EVE 1.8	IPS 2.2	ful 1.6	tot 1.5	MUN 1.6
Aston Villa	7.7	mun 1.2	SUN 1.5	ips 1.6	EVE 1.6	CRY 1.8	cov 1.7	che 1.2	LEE 1.5	LIV 1.4	bou 1.2
Tottenham	7.5	lee 1.3	IPS 2.0	sun 1.3	FUL 1.8	ARS 1.0	hul 1.8	liv 1.2	BOU 1.5	BHA 1.5	mci 1.1
Leeds	7.3	TOT 1.5	che 1.1	COV 1.9	mci 1.0	IPS 1.8	liv 1.1	FUL 1.6	avl 1.3	hul 1.7	EVE 1.5
Everton	7.1	COV 1.9	bre 1.2	LIV 1.3	avl 1.3	FUL 1.5	bha 1.1	nfo 1.2	SUN 1.4	MCI 1.1	lee 1.1
Nottingham Forest	6.3	MCI 1.1	bou 1.1	CHE 1.3	hul 1.6	BHA 1.3	sun 1.1	EVE 1.4	mun 1.1	new 1.3	FUL 1.5
Newcastle	6.7	ful 1.5	ARS 1.0	bha 1.2	MUN 1.5	SUN 1.5	ips 1.7	bre 1.3	MCI 1.3	NFO 1.6	che 1.2
Brentford	6.8	bha 1.3	EVE 1.7	mun 1.3	ARS 1.1	MCI 1.3	ful 1.6	NEW 1.9	ips 1.8	cov 1.9	CRY 2.0
Crystal Palace	6.5	LIV 1.1	cov 1.4	HUL 1.7	che 1.0	avl 1.2	MUN 1.2	sun 1.1	ARS 0.8	BOU 1.2	bre 1.1
Sunderland	5.6	CHE 1.1	avl 1.1	TOT 1.3	liv 0.9	new 1.1	NFO 1.3	CRY 1.5	eve 1.1	mun 1.0	HUL 1.7
Fulham	6.1	NEW 1.5	mci 0.9	BOU 1.3	tot 1.2	eve 1.2	BRE 1.4	lee 1.1	BHA 1.3	ARS 0.9	nfo 1.2
Ipswich	6.0	BOU 1.2	tot 1.1	AVL 1.4	cov 1.4	lee 1.0	NEW 1.4	bha 1.0	BRE 1.3	CHE 1.2	ars 0.7
Coventry	6.0	eve 1.1	CRY 1.4	lee 1.0	IPS 1.6	mun 0.9	AVL 1.3	bou 1.0	CHE 1.1	BRE 1.2	liv 0.9
Hull	4.3	ars 0.5	BHA 0.9	cry 1.0	NFO 1.0	bou 0.8	TOT 1.0	mci 0.7	LIV 0.9	LEE 1.0	sun 0.8

For the best squad over these weeks within the budget, see the optimal squad.

How this was worked out

Generated from FixtureShark’s projections (live projections) on Thu 5 Nov; nothing is written by hand. Team goals come from betting-market ratings where a price exists, otherwise from the Dixon-Coles model. Players listed are owned by 1%+ or among the 50 highest projected for the next five gameweeks.

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