GW8 reflection 2026/27
Published Tue 27 Oct · version 2
The week in five lines
- 1 · Team goals19 goals against 29.3 expected.Ratings updated
- 2 · Positions and playing time27 players we had at 70%+ to start didn't.15 start chances moved
- 3 · Injuries, suspensions and congestionJoão Pedro (Chelsea) is now doubtful.Rotation measured
- 4 · Set pieces3 changes to FPL's set-piece takers.3 to check
- 5 · CaptaincyHaaland scored 8; the underlying-form pick, Saka, 0; last week's top scorer, Rice, 3.Premium 128 v xGI form 28
What the model changed this week
Updated automatically
Method changes since the GW8 deadline
None.
Watching and considering
- Rogers at centre-forward: one match so far
- Palmer at attacking midfield: one match so far
- Mbeumo at centre-forward: one match so far
- Lower start chances after a European or cup midweek (not modelled yet; measured each week in this section)
- A source for who takes each penalty
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Team goals
19 goals against 29.3 expected. Chances were down too (xG 23.1), so the shortfall was in chances created, not just finishing.
Expected v chances v goals, by team
| Team | Chart | Goals v exp | xG v exp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth @ MUN | +1.8 | +1.0 | |
| Aston Villa v MCI | +0.9 | −0.5 | |
| Tottenham @ CHE | +0.8 | −0.5 | |
| Newcastle @ CRY | +0.4 | −0.7 | |
| Liverpool v BHA | +0.2 | −0.6 | |
| Hull v BRE | 0.0 | +0.6 | |
| Arsenal v EVE | −0.2 | −0.2 | |
| Ipswich v NFO | −0.3 | −0.9 | |
| Nottingham Forest @ IPS | −0.5 | +0.8 | |
| Fulham @ COV | −0.5 | −0.9 | |
| Everton @ ARS | −0.7 | −0.1 | |
| Brentford @ HUL | −0.9 | −0.2 | |
| Manchester City @ AVL | −1.0 | −0.4 | |
| Sunderland v LEE | −1.1 | −0.3 | |
| Leeds @ SUN | −1.2 | −0.4 | |
| Brighton @ LIV | −1.3 | 0.0 | |
| Coventry v FUL | −1.3 | −0.8 | |
| Crystal Palace v NEW | −1.4 | +0.2 | |
| Manchester United v BOU | −1.9 | −0.7 | |
| Chelsea v TOT | −1.9 | −1.5 |
Signal: chances
Bournemouth made 2.1 xG against 1.2 expected and scored 3. Chance creation running ahead of the market is the kind of result that can move a rating.
The season so far: where the market has been wrong
Season xG compared with the goals the closing prices expected, per team. These are the gaps the ratings can still close.
Creating more than expected
- Brighton+4.5
- Bournemouth+3.8
- Nottingham Forest+3.6
- Sunderland+2.9
Creating less than expected
- Tottenham−4.1
- Newcastle−3.7
- Chelsea−3.6
- Liverpool−2.7
Allowing less than expected
- Coventry+3.7
- Hull+3.6
- Bournemouth+3.0
- Nottingham Forest+2.7
Allowing more than expected
- Sunderland−3.1
- Crystal Palace−2.7
- Manchester City−2.2
- Newcastle−2.0
What changes in the model
Team ratings come from bookmakers’ closing prices, not results, so they move when the market’s view moves: results backed by chances tend to move it, finishing luck mostly doesn’t.
Biggest movers since the deadline, and what that does to their next five fixtures (GW9–13):
| Manchester United | 1.75 → 1.66 | 1.29 → 1.32 | 8.6 → 8.2 | 7.5 → 7.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.40 → 1.44 | 1.40 → 1.33 | 7.5 → 7.7 | 6.4 → 6.1 |
| Manchester City | 2.04 → 2.11 | 1.07 → 1.11 | 9.7 → 9.9 | 5.6 → 5.8 |
| Aston Villa | 1.37 → 1.42 | 1.48 → 1.54 | 7.3 → 7.6 | 6.9 → 7.1 |
| Leeds | 1.34 → 1.36 | 1.29 → 1.34 | 6.7 → 6.7 | 7.3 → 7.7 |
| Coventry | 1.11 → 1.10 | 1.81 → 1.86 | 6.1 → 6.0 | 7.8 → 8.0 |
Attack and conceding are goals per match against an average side, at the deadline → now.
2 of 5
Positions and playing time
27 players we had at 70%+ to start didn't. 1 was flagged by FPL beforehand. João Pedro (85%, 71% owned) was the costly one. Rogers played centre-forward instead of left wing.
- start forecast error (Brier) over 668 players; 0.25 is a coin flip
- 0.094
- at 70%+ to start who didn’t (1 flagged by FPL)
- 27
- started from under 30%
- 27
- played a different line from the model’s
- 13
Expected to start, didn’t
| João Pedro Chelsea | 85% | 0 |
|---|---|---|
| Calafiori Arsenal | 94% | 22 |
| B.Fernandes Manchester United | 97% | 0 |
| Wissa Newcastle | 94% | 13 |
| Cunha Manchester United | 79% | 45 |
| Havertz Arsenal | 93% | 22 |
Started against the odds
| Iroegbunam Hull | 3% | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| Schär Newcastle | 3% | 7 |
| Gyökeres Arsenal | 6% | 5 |
| Quenda Chelsea | 1% | 3 |
| Larsson Fulham | 2% | 3 |
| Walton Ipswich | 3% | 3 |
Played a different line
| Model | Played | |
|---|---|---|
| Rogers Chelsea | LW | CF |
| Palmer Chelsea | RW | AM |
| Mbeumo Manchester United | RW | CF |
| Schade Brentford | LW | AM |
| Belloumi Hull | RWB | RW |
| Neto Chelsea | RWB | RW |
Plus 27 who changed position within the same line.
Taken off early (7)
| Guéhi Manchester City | 78′ | 45′ |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Coventry | 77′ | 59′ |
| Emersonn Ipswich | 76′ | 59′ |
| Mukiele Sunderland | 76′ | 51′ |
| F.Kadıoğlu Brighton | 76′ | 5′ |
| Tielemans Manchester United | 76′ | 45′ |
| Boscagli Brighton | 76′ | 45′ |
What changes in the model
GW9 start chances that moved most since the deadline, and why:
| Why | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Janelt Brentford | 0% | 90% | fit again (FPL flag cleared) |
| Tzolis Arsenal | 0% | 68% | Hamstring injury - Expected back 1 Nov |
| Mendy Hull | 0% | 68% | Groin injury - Expected back 31 Oct |
| Eze Arsenal | 73% | 24% | start record 2 of 8 |
| Calvert-Lewin Leeds | 48% | 95% | fit again (FPL flag cleared) |
| Wilson Leeds | 69% | 32% | start record 2 of 7 |
| Calafiori Arsenal | 94% | 59% | Hip injury - 75% chance of playing |
| Stach Leeds | 48% | 80% | fit again (FPL flag cleared) |
WatchingRogers at centre-forward: one match so far. A new position is recorded as one the player also plays; if it repeats, his role (and goal share) changes.
WatchingPalmer at attacking midfield: one match so far. A new position is recorded as one the player also plays; if it repeats, his role (and goal share) changes.
WatchingMbeumo at centre-forward: one match so far. A new position is recorded as one the player also plays; if it repeats, his role (and goal share) changes.
3 of 5
Injuries, suspensions and congestion
João Pedro (Chelsea) is now doubtful. 9 teams played midweek before GW8; their likely starters still made 75 of the 77 starts we expected.
New or worse since the deadline
| Now | |
|---|---|
| João Pedro Chelsea | doubtfulUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing |
| Calafiori Arsenal | doubtfulHip injury - 75% chance of playing |
| Thomas Coventry | doubtfulUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing |
| N.Williams Nottingham Forest | doubtfulArm injury - 75% chance of playing |
| Wirtz Liverpool | doubtfulAnkle injury - 75% chance of playing |
| Mykolenko Everton | doubtfulUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing |
| F.Kadıoğlu Brighton | doubtfulHip injury - 75% chance of playing |
Back
Calvert-Lewin, O'Reilly, Brobbey, Manzambi, Elanga, Stach, Janelt, Martinez
Sent off
Palmer (Chelsea)
Fixture congestion
Before GW8, 9 teams had a cup or European match:
| Arsenal | Wed 21 Oct: Bayern München (a) Champions League | Sat 15:00: Everton (h) | 3 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | Wed 21 Oct: Viking (h) Champions League | Sat 12:30: Manchester City (h) | 3 days |
| Bournemouth | Thu 22 Oct: AC Milan (h) Europa League | Sun 14:00: Manchester United (a) | 3 days |
| Brighton | Thu 22 Oct: Jablonec (a) Conference League | Sun 14:00: Liverpool (a) | 3 days |
| Crystal Palace | Thu 22 Oct: Besiktas (a) Europa League | Sun 14:00: Newcastle (h) | 3 days |
| Sunderland | Thu 22 Oct: Lech Poznan (a) Europa League | Sun 16:30: Leeds (h) | 3 days |
| Manchester City | Tue 20 Oct: AEK Athens (h) Champions League | Sat 12:30: Aston Villa (a) | 4 days |
| Manchester United | Wed 21 Oct: Como (a) Champions League | Sun 14:00: Bournemouth (h) | 4 days |
| Liverpool | Tue 20 Oct: Villarreal (h) Champions League | Sun 14:00: Brighton (h) | 5 days |
Did they rotate?
| Teams | Likely starters | Expected starts | Started | Rate v expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Played midweek (9) | 85 | 77.2 | 75 | −3% |
| Didn’t (11) | 101 | 91.4 | 84 | −8% |
One gameweek is a small sample; this builds week by week into the evidence for whether to model congestion.
Before GW9, 13 teams play midweek: rest days and the teams affected are in the GW9 preview.
What changes in the model
- Injuries and suspensions feed straight into start chances (see the start-chance moves above).
- Midweek matches are not modelled. Start chances ignore rest days. Each reflection now compares how often likely starters at teams with a midweek match actually started against teams without one; if they start noticeably less over several weeks, that is the case for adding it to the model.
Price changes since the deadline (32)
| Raya Arsenal | £6.1m | £6.2m | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gvardiol Manchester City | £5.8m | £5.7m | 27% |
| B.Fernandes Manchester United | £11.8m | £11.7m | 24.7% |
| Konsa Arsenal | £4.6m | £4.7m | 20% |
| Tavernier Bournemouth | £6.2m | £6.4m | 17.8% |
| Ødegaard Arsenal | £6.8m | £6.7m | 17.7% |
| Szoboszlai Liverpool | £6.8m | £6.7m | 15.1% |
| Kinsky Tottenham | £4.5m | £4.4m | 14.9% |
| Rice Arsenal | £7.3m | £7.4m | 12.5% |
| Wissa Newcastle | £6.1m | £6.0m | 11.6% |
| Bogle Leeds | £4.7m | £4.8m | 11.1% |
| Kostoulas Brighton | £5.7m | £5.8m | 10.2% |
| Saka Arsenal | £9.6m | £9.5m | 8.7% |
| N.Jackson Aston Villa | £6.6m | £6.7m | 8.6% |
| O'Reilly Manchester City | £6.3m | £6.2m | 8.6% |
| Lammens Manchester United | £4.9m | £4.8m | 8.1% |
| Semenyo Manchester City | £8.3m | £8.2m | 7.8% |
| Barry Everton | £5.7m | £5.6m | 7.4% |
| Evanilson Bournemouth | £6.1m | £6.2m | 7.3% |
| Gonzalo Fulham | £6.1m | £6.0m | 5.8% |
| Muharemović Leeds | £5.0m | £5.1m | 5.7% |
| Shaw Manchester United | £4.3m | £4.2m | 4.5% |
| Cash Aston Villa | £4.4m | £4.3m | 4.2% |
| Neto Chelsea | £6.5m | £6.6m | 4.1% |
| Barcola Liverpool | £8.0m | £8.1m | 3.8% |
4 of 5
Set pieces
3 changes to FPL's set-piece takers. No penalties missed. Our penalty taker differs from FPL's at 2 clubs.
Newcastle · Penalties
Osula → Wissa
Ours: Osula (penalties)
To checkIpswich · Free kicks
Núñez → Enciso
Ours: Núñez (direct free kicks)
To checkChelsea · Corners, indirect FKs
James → Henderson
Ours: James (left corners), Neto (right corners), James (indirect free kicks)
To check
- penalties missed
- 0
- clubs where our penalty taker differs from FPL’s
- 2
- our set-piece hierarchy last reviewed
- Sat 19 Sept
What changes in the model
The projection gives set-piece chances to the takers in our own hierarchy (left and right corners, free kicks, penalties), which is reviewed by hand. FPL’s order is a cross-check, not an input.
To check: Newcastle (penalties: FPL now has Wissa); Ipswich (free kicks: FPL now has Enciso); Chelsea (corners, indirect fks: FPL now has Henderson). Until ours changes, the projection keeps the old taker.
Penalty takers that differ: Coventry (FPL Rudoni; ours Wright); Newcastle (FPL Wissa; ours Osula).
We can’t see who took each penalty. FPL’s data doesn’t say which goals were penalties, so a new taker only shows up when FPL changes its order. A source for penalty events would let us spot it sooner.
5 of 5
Captaincy
Haaland scored 8; the underlying-form pick, Saka, 0; last week's top scorer, Rice, 3. Isak (15% owned) was the best captain with 9. B.Fernandes has blanked 6 weeks running; 70% of his points came in GW2. Since GW2, captaining the premium every week has 128 captain points; underlying form 28 and chasing last week's top scorer 38.
This week: the range at the deadline, and where each landed
| Candidate | Range | ≤2 | 10+ | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland most captained | 2% | 24% | 8 | |
| Isak best this week | 6% | 18% | 9 | |
| João Pedro 71% owned | 15% | 14% | 0 | |
| Rice last week's top scorer | 4% | 5% | 3 | |
| Saka underlying form | 100% | 0% | 0 |
≤2: chance of 2 points or fewer. 10+: chance of 10 or more (before doubling). From 20,000 simulated gameweeks using the projections at the deadline.
Season so far: return and volatility (GW2–8)
| Premium every week | 128 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underlying form | 28 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Last week's top scorer | 38 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Hindsight best | 198 | 14.1 | 4.6 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 6 |
- Premium every week: FPL's most-captained player each gameweek.
- Underlying form: most expected goal involvements (xGI) over the previous 4 gameweeks, among midfielders and forwards who cost £7.0m+ at the start of the season, played 180+ minutes in them and started their last match; never the premium.
- Last week's top scorer: most points in the previous gameweek among the same players; never the premium.
- Hindsight best: the top scorer among those players and the premium (a ceiling, not a strategy).
- Model's top projection: the highest projection at each deadline (saved from GW6).
- Per week, worst and best are points before doubling; spread is the standard deviation; a blank is 2 points or fewer.
The model’s top projection has been saved since GW6: 46 captain points so far against 54 for the premium in the same weeks.
Reliable or explosive: the captain options, week by week
| Haaland | 2 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 66 | 8.5 | 1 | – | 20% (GW2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isak | 2 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 8 | 3 | – | 25% (GW3) |
| João Pedro | 11 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 5.5 | 4 | 2 now | 26% (GW4) |
| Cherki | 8 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 5.5 | 3 | 2 now | 32% (GW2) |
| Rogers | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 5.5 | 3 | 2 now | 22% (GW6) |
| Rice | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 39 | 5 | 1 | – | 23% (GW7) |
| Saka | 9 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 37 | 2.5 | 4 | 1 now | 30% (GW2) |
| Palmer | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -1 | 37 | 3.5 | 4 | 2 now | 35% (GW1) |
| B.Fernandes | 2 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 7 | 6 now | 70% (GW2)one big week |
Red: 2 points or fewer. Green: 10 or more. Best week: the share of his season’s points that came in his best gameweek; a player whose total leans on one week has only paid off for managers who captained him that week.
Blanks barely run in streaks. From 2022/23 to 2025/26, £9m+ players who played an hour blanked 35% of the time; after one blank it was 38%, after two 40%, and after a return 33%. A run of blanks is a reason to look at minutes and chances, not a forecast on its own.
Over four seasons
The most-captained player blanked in 27.7% of gameweeks from 2022/23 to 2025/26 and was the best choice in only 19.9%, yet scored the most over the four seasons. A few weeks of this season decide very little. See should you always captain the top pick and should you always captain Haaland.
Week by week
| Premium | xGI form | Last top scorer | Model | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland 2 | – | – | – | Palmer 13 |
| 2 | Haaland 13 | Szoboszlai 4 | Palmer 7 | – | B.Fernandes 23 |
| 3 | Haaland 9 | B.Fernandes 2 | B.Fernandes 2 | – | Isak 13 |
| 4 | Haaland 9 | B.Fernandes 2 | Isak 2 | – | João Pedro 12 |
| 5 | Haaland 6 | B.Fernandes 2 | João Pedro 0 | – | Semenyo 17 |
| 6 | Haaland 6 | B.Fernandes 1 | Semenyo 3 | Saka 2 | Doku 12 |
| 7 | Haaland 13 | Saka 3 | João Pedro 2 | Haaland 13 | Haaland 13 |
| 8 | Haaland 8 | Saka 0 | Rice 3 | Haaland 8 | Isak 9 |
How this was worked out
Generated from the data on Tue 27 Oct; nothing is written by hand. Expected goals at the deadline: deadline snapshot (market goals). Start chances and roles are the ones the projections had at the deadline (Fri 23 Oct). xG is FPL’s. Team ratings come from bookmakers’ closing prices, including this gameweek’s. Players listed are owned by 1%+ or among the 50 highest projected for the next five gameweeks.
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