GW9 preview 2026/27

Published Sat 31 Oct · version 6 · locked at the deadline

Deadline Sat 31 Oct, 11:00. Locked at the deadline: the projections as they stood before kick-off.

This gameweek

Haaland leads the captaincy table on 7.7 projected points and a 30% chance of outscoring the other seven.
The most one-sided fixture: Manchester City against Brighton, 2.1 goals expected for Manchester City.
9 teams play this gameweek on three days' rest or less after a midweek match: Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Manchester City and Sunderland.
Calafiori (Arsenal, 48.1% owned): Hip injury - 75% chance of playing.

What’s changed since GW8

Availability

Availability changes since the last deadline
	Change
Calafiori Arsenal	available → doubtful Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
João Pedro Chelsea	available → injured Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Calvert-Lewin Leeds	doubtful → available
Szoboszlai Liverpool	injured → doubtful Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
Rice Arsenal	available → doubtful Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Thomas Coventry	available → doubtful Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
O'Reilly Manchester City	doubtful → available
Manzambi Aston Villa	doubtful → available
Lacroix Chelsea	available → injured Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
Brobbey Sunderland	doubtful → available
Mendy Hull	injured → available
Tzolis Arsenal	injured → doubtful Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Elanga Newcastle	doubtful → available
Scott Bournemouth	injured → injured Thigh injury - Expected back 21 Nov
Branthwaite Everton	available → doubtful Concussion - 75% chance of playing
Janelt Brentford	suspended → available
Mukiele Sunderland	available → doubtful Knock - 75% chance of playing
F.Kadıoğlu Brighton	available → doubtful Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
Martinez Manchester United	doubtful → available
Mainoo Manchester United	injured → doubtful Unspecified injury - 25% chance of playing
Henderson Crystal Palace	doubtful → available

Prices

Price changes since the last deadline

Haaland Manchester City	£15.7m	£15.8m	78.9%
Rogers Chelsea	£8.0m	£8.1m	51.3%
Calafiori Arsenal	£6.0m	£5.9m	48.1%
Raya Arsenal	£6.1m	£6.2m	46.3%
João Pedro Chelsea	£7.9m	£7.8m	44.9%
Gvardiol Manchester City	£5.8m	£5.7m	26.6%
Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.2m	£6.5m	25.7%
Gabriel Arsenal	£7.9m	£8.0m	23.9%
N.Jackson Aston Villa	£6.6m	£6.9m	23.4%
B.Fernandes Manchester United	£11.8m	£11.7m	22.4%
Konsa Arsenal	£4.6m	£4.7m	21.8%
Isak Liverpool	£9.0m	£9.1m	20.5%
Ødegaard Arsenal	£6.8m	£6.7m	16.8%
Kinsky Tottenham	£4.5m	£4.4m	15.3%
Evanilson Bournemouth	£6.1m	£6.3m	15%
Szoboszlai Liverpool	£6.8m	£6.7m	13.6%
Rice Arsenal	£7.3m	£7.4m	11.8%
Bogle Leeds	£4.7m	£4.8m	11.5%
Kostoulas Brighton	£5.7m	£5.8m	10.3%
Wissa Newcastle	£6.1m	£6.0m	10.3%
O'Reilly Manchester City	£6.3m	£6.2m	8.4%
Lammens Manchester United	£4.9m	£4.8m	7.7%
Barry Everton	£5.7m	£5.6m	7.4%
Vuskovic Brighton	£5.1m	£5.2m	7%
Saka Arsenal	£9.6m	£9.5m	6.7%

Set-piece takers: Newcastle penalties Osula → Wissa; Ipswich free kicks Núñez → Enciso; Chelsea corners James → Henderson
Model changes:
- Fri 30 Oct: FPL defensive contribution: P3 count model replaces the exponential curve

Fixtures

Expected goals for each side, read off the betting market where it prices the match, with each side’s chance of a clean sheet and FPL’s difficulty rating (FDR). Why both: xG or FDR?

Fixtures: expected goals, clean-sheet chance and FDR
			FDR
Chelsea v Manchester United	1.8–1.4	25%/17%	4/4
Manchester City v Brighton	2.1–1.1	32%/12%	3/5
Bournemouth v Leeds	1.5–1.2	31%/23%	3/3
Brentford v Nottingham Forest	1.7–1.1	32%/18%	3/3
Coventry v Sunderland	1.1–1.4	25%/32%	3/2
Hull v Ipswich	1.3–1.4	24%/27%	2/2
Tottenham v Crystal Palace	1.9–1.1	33%/16%	2/3
Aston Villa v Fulham	1.7–1.3	28%/19%	2/3
Liverpool v Arsenal	1.2–1.6	20%/31%	4/4
Newcastle v Everton	1.6–1.3	26%/20%	3/3

Midweek matches

Teams with a cup or European match before their GW9 game, and the rest in between. The projections don’t adjust start chances for this yet, so regular starters at teams on three days’ rest may be a little high. Each reflection measures whether they were rotated.

Teams with a cup or European match before their next league match

Aston Villa	Wed 28 Oct: Bournemouth (a) Carabao Cup	Sat 20:00: Fulham (h)	3 days
Bournemouth	Wed 28 Oct: Aston Villa (h) Carabao Cup	Sat 15:00: Leeds (h)	3 days
Brentford	Wed 28 Oct: Sunderland (a) Carabao Cup	Sat 15:00: Nottingham Forest (h)	3 days
Brighton	Wed 28 Oct: Manchester City (a) Carabao Cup	Sat 15:00: Manchester City (a)	3 days
Chelsea	Wed 28 Oct: Liverpool (a) Carabao Cup	Sat 12:30: Manchester United (h)	3 days
Crystal Palace	Wed 28 Oct: Fulham (a) Carabao Cup	Sat 17:30: Tottenham (a)	3 days
Fulham	Wed 28 Oct: Crystal Palace (h) Carabao Cup	Sat 20:00: Aston Villa (a)	3 days
Manchester City	Wed 28 Oct: Brighton (h) Carabao Cup	Sat 15:00: Brighton (h)	3 days
Sunderland	Wed 28 Oct: Brentford (h) Carabao Cup	Sat 15:00: Coventry (a)	3 days
Everton	Thu 29 Oct: Newcastle (h) Carabao Cup	Mon 20:00: Newcastle (a)	4 days
Liverpool	Wed 28 Oct: Chelsea (h) Carabao Cup	Sun 16:30: Arsenal (h)	4 days
Newcastle	Thu 29 Oct: Everton (a) Carabao Cup	Mon 20:00: Everton (h)	4 days
Arsenal	Tue 27 Oct: Fleetwood Town (a) Carabao Cup	Sun 16:30: Liverpool (a)	5 days

Coming up: Champions League and Conference League and Europa League before GW10 (9 teams, Tue 3 Nov–Thu 5 Nov).

Captaincy

The eight highest projections, and how often each scores the most of the eight across 20,000 simulated gameweeks (team goals shared, so teammates rise and fall together). The top projection is the best pick on average, but rarely by much: see should you always captain the top pick.

Captaincy: projected points and chance of the top score

Haaland Manchester City3 days’ rest	7.7	30%	2%	–	97%	78.9%
Tavernier Bournemouth3 days’ rest	6.0	15%	4%	–	97%	26%
Barry Everton4 days’ rest	5.2	8%	8%	2	95%	7.3%
E.Le Fée Sunderland3 days’ rest	5.2	11%	4%	–	97%	2.8%
Thiago Brentford3 days’ rest	5.1	9%	4%	–	97%	9.5%
Emersonn Ipswich	5.1	9%	15%	4	95%	3.2%
N.Jackson Aston Villa3 days’ rest	5.1	9%	15%	–	92%	23.7%
Marmoush Tottenham	5.0	9%	20%	1	88%	2.8%

Best picks by position

Projected points for this gameweek, the next five and the next ten, ranked on the next five.

Goalkeepers

Best GK picks

Raya Arsenal	£6.2m	4.2	23.3	48.0
Suzuki Aston Villa	£5.0m	3.9	18.7	36.5
Kinsky Tottenham	£4.4m	3.8	18.1	34.1
Trafford Leeds	£5.0m	3.6	18.1	38.2
Tzolakis Hull	£4.7m	4.2	17.8	33.8
Donnarumma Manchester City	£5.5m	3.5	17.8	35.8
Petrović Bournemouth	£4.5m	3.5	17.0	33.9
A.Becker Liverpool	£5.5m	2.9	17.0	34.0

Defenders

Best DEF picks

Gabriel Arsenal	£8.0m	4.0	22.2	45.4
Hill Bournemouth	£5.5m	3.9	19.1	38.0
Van Hecke Tottenham	£4.9m	4.0	18.8	35.2
De Cuyper Brighton	£5.3m	2.4	18.6	38.7
Virgil Liverpool	£6.4m	3.1	18.0	35.9
Silva Bournemouth	£5.0m	3.6	17.6	35.1
Vuskovic Brighton	£5.2m	2.6	17.5	36.2
Guéhi Manchester City	£6.0m	3.5	17.4	35.1

Midfielders

Best MID picks

Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.5m	6.0	30.3	60.8
Ødegaard Arsenal	£6.7m	5.0	27.6	53.2
Mbeumo Manchester United	£7.9m	4.5	25.6	52.8
Palmer Chelsea	£9.8m	4.9	25.0	49.9
Groß Brighton	£6.2m	3.8	24.0	48.9
E.Le Fée Sunderland	£5.7m	5.2	23.1	46.7
Rogers Chelsea	£8.1m	4.5	22.7	45.3
B.Fernandes Manchester United	£11.7m	4.0	22.2	45.1

Forwards

Best FWD picks

Haaland Manchester City	£15.8m	7.7	36.9	76.2
Isak Liverpool	£9.1m	4.7	27.8	56.7
Barry Everton	£5.6m	5.2	26.6	51.6
Calvert-Lewin Leeds	£6.1m	4.6	25.2	52.6
N.Jackson Aston Villa	£6.9m	5.1	23.8	47.5
Emersonn Ipswich	£5.5m	5.1	23.6	45.4
Evanilson Bournemouth	£6.3m	4.7	23.6	47.5
Kostoulas Brighton	£5.8m	3.8	23.4	47.1

Value

Most projected points per million over five gameweeks

Barry Everton	£5.6m	5.2	26.6	51.6	4.75
Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.5m	6.0	30.3	60.8	4.66
Emersonn Ipswich	£5.5m	5.1	23.6	45.4	4.29
Calvert-Lewin Leeds	£6.1m	4.6	25.2	52.6	4.13
Ødegaard Arsenal	£6.7m	5.0	27.6	53.2	4.12
Kinsky Tottenham	£4.4m	3.8	18.1	34.1	4.11
E.Le Fée Sunderland	£5.7m	5.2	23.1	46.7	4.05
Kostoulas Brighton	£5.8m	3.8	23.4	47.1	4.03

Differentials

Highest projected players owned by under 5%

Emersonn Ipswich	£5.5m	5.1	23.6	45.4	3.2%
E.Le Fée Sunderland	£5.7m	5.2	23.1	46.7	2.8%
Marmoush Tottenham	£7.0m	5.0	22.9	43.9	2.8%
Welbeck Chelsea	£5.8m	4.9	21.7	35.7	0.8%
Gonzalo Fulham	£6.0m	4.3	21.1	41.3	4.6%
Garner Everton	£6.0m	4.0	20.5	40.4	0.2%
Iwobi Fulham	£5.4m	4.0	19.7	38.9	1.4%
Buendía Aston Villa	£5.9m	4.1	19.2	38.5	1.2%

Value and differentials: players at least 70% to start.

Minutes watch

Popular or highly projected players under 70% to start
			Why
Calafiori Arsenal	59%	46.8%	Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
João Pedro Chelsea	0%	46.2%	Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Gvardiol Manchester City	69%	26.2%	pecking order
Dubravka Tottenham	2%	15.6%	started 0 of 9 available
Szoboszlai Liverpool	49%	13.6%	Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
Thomas Coventry	47%	8.4%	Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
O'Reilly Manchester City	56%	8.4%	started 4 of 9 available
Manzambi Aston Villa	59%	7%	started 4 of 8 available
Saka Arsenal	0%	6.8%	Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Semenyo Manchester City	0%	6.6%	Knee injury - Unknown return date
M.Sangaré Brentford	68%	6.3%	started 6 of 9 available
Hughes Crystal Palace	3%	5.8%	started 0 of 9 available
Lacroix Chelsea	0%	5.6%	Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
Pedro Porro Tottenham	17%	5.2%	started 3 of 7 available

The next ten gameweeks

Each side’s expected goals in every fixture from GW9 to GW18, darker for more goals (under 1.0, 1.0–1.5, 1.5–2.0, 2.0+). Opponents in capitals are at home.

Expected goals by fixture for the next ten gameweeks
Team	For, 5 GW	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17	GW18
Arsenal	10.0	liv 1.6	HUL 2.9	new 2.0	MCI 1.7	bre 1.8	tot 1.8	BOU 2.0	MUN 2.0	cry 2.1	ful 2.0
Manchester City	9.9	BHA 2.1	nfo 1.9	FUL 2.5	ars 1.2	LEE 2.2	bre 1.9	CHE 2.1	HUL 3.1	new 2.1	eve 2.0
Chelsea	8.9	MUN 1.8	sun 1.5	LEE 1.8	nfo 1.6	CRY 2.2	LIV 1.7	mci 1.3	AVL 2.1	cov 2.1	ips 2.0
Liverpool	8.4	ARS 1.2	cry 1.9	MUN 1.8	eve 1.7	SUN 1.9	che 1.5	LEE 1.8	TOT 2.0	hul 2.2	avl 1.8
Tottenham	8.2	CRY 1.9	lee 1.3	IPS 2.0	sun 1.3	FUL 1.8	ARS 1.0	hul 1.8	liv 1.2	BOU 1.5	BHA 1.5
Bournemouth	7.7	LEE 1.5	ips 1.7	NFO 1.6	ful 1.4	BHA 1.5	HUL 2.1	ars 0.8	COV 2.0	tot 1.4	cry 1.5
Brighton	8.0	mci 1.1	BRE 1.7	hul 1.9	NEW 1.9	bou 1.4	nfo 1.5	EVE 1.7	IPS 2.2	ful 1.6	tot 1.5
Manchester United	8.2	che 1.4	AVL 1.9	liv 1.4	BRE 1.8	new 1.7	COV 2.4	cry 1.8	ars 0.9	NFO 1.8	SUN 1.7
Aston Villa	7.6	FUL 1.7	mun 1.2	SUN 1.5	ips 1.7	EVE 1.6	CRY 1.8	cov 1.7	che 1.2	LEE 1.5	LIV 1.4
Brentford	7.2	NFO 1.7	bha 1.4	EVE 1.7	mun 1.3	ARS 1.0	MCI 1.3	ful 1.6	NEW 1.9	ips 1.8	cov 1.9
Everton	7.0	new 1.3	COV 1.9	bre 1.2	LIV 1.3	avl 1.3	FUL 1.6	bha 1.1	nfo 1.2	SUN 1.4	MCI 1.1
Leeds	6.7	bou 1.2	TOT 1.5	che 1.1	COV 1.9	mci 1.0	IPS 1.9	liv 1.1	FUL 1.6	avl 1.4	hul 1.7
Sunderland	5.9	cov 1.4	CHE 1.1	avl 1.1	TOT 1.3	liv 0.9	new 1.2	NFO 1.3	CRY 1.4	eve 1.1	mun 1.0
Ipswich	6.5	hul 1.4	BOU 1.2	tot 1.1	AVL 1.4	cov 1.4	lee 1.0	NEW 1.4	bha 1.0	BRE 1.3	CHE 1.2
Newcastle	6.8	EVE 1.6	ful 1.5	ARS 1.0	bha 1.3	MUN 1.5	SUN 1.5	ips 1.7	bre 1.3	MCI 1.3	NFO 1.6
Nottingham Forest	6.1	bre 1.1	MCI 1.1	bou 1.1	CHE 1.3	hul 1.5	BHA 1.3	sun 1.1	EVE 1.4	mun 1.1	new 1.3
Coventry	6.0	SUN 1.1	eve 1.0	CRY 1.4	lee 1.0	IPS 1.5	mun 0.9	AVL 1.3	bou 0.9	CHE 1.1	BRE 1.2
Crystal Palace	6.4	tot 1.1	LIV 1.1	cov 1.4	HUL 1.7	che 1.0	avl 1.2	MUN 1.2	sun 1.0	ARS 0.8	BOU 1.2
Fulham	6.3	avl 1.3	NEW 1.6	mci 0.9	BOU 1.3	tot 1.2	eve 1.2	BRE 1.4	lee 1.1	BHA 1.3	ARS 0.9
Hull	4.8	IPS 1.3	ars 0.5	BHA 1.0	cry 1.0	NFO 1.0	bou 0.8	TOT 1.0	mci 0.7	LIV 0.9	LEE 1.0

For the best squad over these weeks within the budget, see the optimal squad.

How this was worked out

Generated from FixtureShark’s projections (deadline snapshot) on Sat 31 Oct; nothing is written by hand. Team goals come from betting-market ratings where a price exists, otherwise from the Dixon-Coles model. Players listed are owned by 1%+ or among the 50 highest projected for the next five gameweeks.

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