GW6 reflection 2026/27
Published Tue 13 Oct · version 2
The week in five lines
- 1 · Team goals36 goals against 29.1 expected.Ratings updated
- 2 · Positions and playing time29 players we had at 70%+ to start didn't.28 start chances moved
- 3 · Injuries, suspensions and congestionLiverpool lost 3 players: Isak, Gakpo and Gravenberch.Flags updated
- 4 · Set piecesMcGinn replaced Cash on Aston Villa's corners and indirect free kicks.Ours already agree
- 5 · CaptaincyHaaland scored 6; the underlying-form pick, B.Fernandes, 1; last week's top scorer, Semenyo, 3; the model's pick, Saka, 2.Premium 86 v xGI form 22
What the model changed this week
Updated automatically
Method changes since the GW6 deadline
- actual line-ups with positions from BBC screenshots; seeded roles corrected (Sat 10 Oct)
- Fantasy Football Scout tactical roles had left and right swapped (Sat 10 Oct)
- players can be listed in more than one position (Sat 10 Oct)
- recent matches count for more in the depth chart's start record (Sat 10 Oct)
- tied pecking-order ranks share places by start rate (Sat 10 Oct)
- GW6 Saturday line-ups from BBC screenshots; seeded roles corrected (Sun 11 Oct)
- GW6 Sunday line-ups from BBC screenshots; seeded roles corrected (Sun 11 Oct)
- Liverpool v Man City line-ups from BBC screenshots (Sun 11 Oct)
- positions seen in screenshots recorded as second positions, not replacements (Sun 11 Oct)
- start record ignores matches not yet played (Mon 12 Oct)
Watching and considering
- Mbeumo at centre-forward: one match so far
- O'Reilly at left-back: one match so far
- Cunha at left wing: one match so far
- Lower start chances after a European or cup midweek (not modelled yet; measured each week in this section)
- A source for who takes each penalty
1 of 5
Team goals
36 goals against 29.1 expected. Chances (xG 30.9) were +1.8 against expectation, so most of the difference came from finishing, which tends not to last and barely moves the ratings.
Expected v chances v goals, by team
| Team | Chart | Goals v exp | xG v exp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea v BOU | +3.1 | −0.8 | |
| Coventry v NEW | +2.6 | +0.1 | |
| Crystal Palace v NFO | +1.7 | +1.2 | |
| Manchester City @ LIV | +1.3 | −0.4 | |
| Hull v EVE | +0.9 | +0.3 | |
| Brighton @ SUN | +0.7 | +0.1 | |
| Ipswich v FUL | +0.6 | −0.2 | |
| Aston Villa v BRE | +0.6 | +0.9 | |
| Brentford @ AVL | +0.5 | −0.5 | |
| Everton @ HUL | +0.4 | +0.1 | |
| Leeds @ ARS | +0.3 | −0.1 | |
| Arsenal v LEE | −0.1 | +0.2 | |
| Bournemouth @ CHE | −0.1 | +0.2 | |
| Tottenham @ MUN | −0.2 | +0.4 | |
| Nottingham Forest @ CRY | −0.3 | +2.0 | |
| Fulham @ IPS | −0.4 | +0.4 | |
| Newcastle @ COV | −0.7 | +0.2 | |
| Manchester United v TOT | −1.0 | −1.2 | |
| Sunderland v BHA | −1.2 | −0.5 | |
| Liverpool v MCI | −1.6 | −0.6 |
Signal: chances
Nottingham Forest made 3.3 xG against 1.3 expected and scored 1. Chance creation running ahead of the market is the kind of result that can move a rating.
Noise: finishing
Chelsea scored 5 from 1.1 xG (expected 1.9). A big week for their attackers, but finishing streaks rarely carry into the next match.
The season so far: where the market has been wrong
Season xG compared with the goals the closing prices expected, per team. These are the gaps the ratings can still close.
Creating more than expected
- Brighton+4.5
- Sunderland+4.2
- Nottingham Forest+2.7
- Fulham+2.0
Creating less than expected
- Newcastle−2.4
- Tottenham−2.3
- Liverpool−2.2
- Chelsea−2.1
Allowing less than expected
- Hull+2.9
- Bournemouth+1.9
- Coventry+1.3
- Nottingham Forest+1.1
Allowing more than expected
- Crystal Palace−3.2
- Chelsea−2.8
- Manchester City−1.9
- Newcastle−1.8
What changes in the model
Team ratings come from bookmakers’ closing prices, not results, so they move when the market’s view moves: results backed by chances tend to move it, finishing luck mostly doesn’t.
Biggest movers since the deadline, and what that does to their next five fixtures (GW7–11):
| Liverpool | 1.89 → 1.82 | 1.27 → 1.27 | 8.8 → 8.5 | 7.1 → 7.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2.04 → 2.04 | 1.06 → 1.02 | 11.2 → 11.2 | 4.8 → 4.6 |
| Hull | 0.94 → 0.93 | 1.94 → 1.91 | 4.8 → 4.7 | 10.1 → 9.9 |
| Ipswich | 1.17 → 1.16 | 1.77 → 1.80 | 5.9 → 5.8 | 9.2 → 9.3 |
| Everton | 1.28 → 1.26 | 1.47 → 1.44 | 6.2 → 6.1 | 8.4 → 8.2 |
| Chelsea | 1.75 → 1.74 | 1.25 → 1.27 | 8.8 → 8.7 | 6.1 → 6.2 |
Attack and conceding are goals per match against an average side, at the deadline → now.
2 of 5
Positions and playing time
29 players we had at 70%+ to start didn't. 1 was flagged by FPL beforehand. Szoboszlai (97%, 28% owned) was the costly one. Mbeumo played centre-forward instead of left wing.
- start forecast error (Brier) over 667 players; 0.25 is a coin flip
- 0.098
- at 70%+ to start who didn’t (1 flagged by FPL)
- 29
- started from under 30%
- 32
- played a different line from the model’s
- 9
Expected to start, didn’t
| Szoboszlai Liverpool | 97% | 0 |
|---|---|---|
| Gvardiol Manchester City | 94% | 24 |
| M.Sangaré Brentford | 82% | 38 |
| Belloumi Hull | 94% | 26 |
| Van de Ven Tottenham | 82% | 16 |
| Mykolenko Everton | 73% | 0 |
Started against the odds
| Cherif Coventry | 6% | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| Lerma Crystal Palace | 2% | 8 |
| Gelhardt Hull | 2% | 8 |
| Sessegnon Fulham | 5% | 7 |
| Yoro Manchester United | 4% | 3 |
| Philogene Ipswich | 1% | 2 |
Played a different line
| Model | Played | |
|---|---|---|
| Mbeumo Manchester United | LW | CF |
| O'Reilly Manchester City | CM | LB |
| Cunha Manchester United | CF | LW |
| Mendy Hull | RW | LCB |
| Stach Leeds | CM | RW |
| Lewis-Potter Brentford | LB | AM |
Plus 52 who changed position within the same line.
Taken off early (5)
| Schade Brentford | 79′ | 51′ |
|---|---|---|
| Ndiaye Manchester City | 74′ | 55′ |
| Tielemans Manchester United | 77′ | 58′ |
| Willock Newcastle | 78′ | 58′ |
| Meunier Sunderland | 77′ | 33′ |
What changes in the model
GW7 start chances that moved most since the deadline, and why:
| Why | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Foden Manchester City | 0% | 68% | fit again (FPL flag cleared) |
| Gravenberch Liverpool | 57% | 0% | Suspended until 25 Oct |
| Eze Arsenal | 90% | 35% | start record 0 of 6 |
| N.Williams Nottingham Forest | 48% | 97% | start record 6 of 6 |
| Enzo Manchester City | 29% | 76% | start record 4 of 6 |
| Manzambi Aston Villa | 9% | 51% | start record 2 of 6 |
| Emersonn Ipswich | 52% | 94% | start record 6 of 6 |
| Ndiaye Manchester City | 90% | 50% | start record 5 of 6 |
WatchingMbeumo at centre-forward: one match so far. A new position is recorded as one the player also plays; if it repeats, his role (and goal share) changes.
WatchingO'Reilly at left-back: one match so far. A new position is recorded as one the player also plays; if it repeats, his role (and goal share) changes.
WatchingCunha at left wing: one match so far. A new position is recorded as one the player also plays; if it repeats, his role (and goal share) changes.
3 of 5
Injuries, suspensions and congestion
Liverpool lost 3 players: Isak, Gakpo and Gravenberch. GW6 followed a 3-week break, so nobody played midweek.
New or worse since the deadline
| Now | |
|---|---|
| Szoboszlai Liverpool | doubtfulHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing |
| Schade Brentford | doubtfulShoulder injury - 75% chance of playing |
| Isak Liverpool | injuredThigh injury - Unknown return date |
| Gakpo Liverpool | injuredAnkle injury - Unknown return date |
| Shaw Manchester United | doubtfulUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing |
| Tzolis Arsenal | injuredHamstring injury - Expected back 1 Nov |
| Pedro Porro Tottenham | injuredHamstring injury - Unknown return date |
| Brobbey Sunderland | injuredHamstring injury - Expected back 25 Oct |
And 9 more.
Back
João Pedro, Palmer, Semenyo, Rice, van Ewijk, Havertz, White, Dunk, Foden, Wilson, Dedić, Rashford, Caicedo
Sent off
Struijk (Brighton), Gravenberch (Liverpool), Bentancur (Tottenham)
Fixture congestion
GW6 followed a 3-week break, so nobody played midweek before it.
Before GW7, 9 teams play midweek: rest days and the teams affected are in the GW7 preview.
What changes in the model
- Injuries and suspensions feed straight into start chances (see the start-chance moves above).
- Midweek matches are not modelled. Start chances ignore rest days. Each reflection now compares how often likely starters at teams with a midweek match actually started against teams without one; if they start noticeably less over several weeks, that is the case for adding it to the model.
Price changes since the deadline (38)
| João Pedro Chelsea | £7.7m | £7.8m | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calafiori Arsenal | £5.8m | £5.9m | 52.3% |
| Rogers Chelsea | £7.7m | £7.9m | 44.8% |
| Groß Brighton | £5.8m | £6.0m | 39.2% |
| De Cuyper Brighton | £5.0m | £5.1m | 35.1% |
| Szoboszlai Liverpool | £7.0m | £6.9m | 28.2% |
| Gvardiol Manchester City | £5.7m | £5.8m | 28% |
| Gabriel Arsenal | £8.0m | £7.9m | 21.9% |
| Tarkowski Everton | £6.1m | £6.2m | 18.4% |
| Wissa Newcastle | £6.2m | £6.3m | 18.2% |
| Saka Arsenal | £9.5m | £9.6m | 16.7% |
| Isak Liverpool | £9.1m | £9.0m | 14.6% |
| Semenyo Manchester City | £8.4m | £8.3m | 13.7% |
| Rice Arsenal | £7.4m | £7.3m | 10.8% |
| Bogle Leeds | £4.6m | £4.7m | 8.9% |
| Kostoulas Brighton | £5.6m | £5.7m | 8.6% |
| Barry Everton | £5.6m | £5.7m | 8.6% |
| Gakpo Liverpool | £7.2m | £7.1m | 7.8% |
| van Ewijk Coventry | £4.0m | £3.9m | 7.4% |
| Gonzalo Fulham | £6.0m | £6.1m | 7.3% |
| Belloumi Hull | £5.1m | £5.2m | 7.2% |
| Havertz Arsenal | £7.6m | £7.5m | 6.6% |
| James Chelsea | £5.4m | £5.3m | 5.1% |
| King Fulham | £5.5m | £5.6m | 4.7% |
| White Arsenal | £5.5m | £5.4m | 4.4% |
4 of 5
Set pieces
McGinn replaced Cash on Aston Villa's corners and indirect free kicks. No penalties missed. Our penalty takers match FPL's at all 20 clubs.
Aston Villa · Corners, indirect FKs
Cash → McGinn
Ours: Cash (left corners), McGinn (right corners), Cash (indirect free kicks)
Agrees on right corners
- penalties missed
- 0
- clubs where our penalty taker matches FPL’s
- 20 of 20
- our set-piece hierarchy last reviewed
- Sat 19 Sept
What changes in the model
The projection gives set-piece chances to the takers in our own hierarchy (left and right corners, free kicks, penalties), which is reviewed by hand. FPL’s order is a cross-check, not an input.
Our hierarchy already has the new first choices.
We can’t see who took each penalty. FPL’s data doesn’t say which goals were penalties, so a new taker only shows up when FPL changes its order. A source for penalty events would let us spot it sooner.
5 of 5
Captaincy
Haaland scored 6; the underlying-form pick, B.Fernandes, 1; last week's top scorer, Semenyo, 3; the model's pick, Saka, 2. Doku (1% owned) and João Pedro (69% owned) were the best captains with 12. Since GW2, captaining the premium every week has 86 captain points; underlying form 22 and chasing last week's top scorer 28.
This week: the range at the deadline, and where each landed
| Candidate | Range | ≤2 | 10+ | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saka model's pick | 8% | 23% | 2 | |
| Haaland most captained | 5% | 19% | 6 | |
| B.Fernandes underlying form | 5% | 16% | 1 | |
| João Pedro 69% owned | 19% | 13% | 12 | |
| Semenyo last week's top scorer | 66% | 2% | 3 | |
| Doku best this week | 65% | 2% | 12 |
≤2: chance of 2 points or fewer. 10+: chance of 10 or more (before doubling). From 20,000 simulated gameweeks using the projections at the deadline.
Season so far: return and volatility (GW2–6)
| Premium every week | 86 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underlying form | 22 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Last week's top scorer | 28 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Hindsight best | 154 | 15.4 | 4.7 | 12 | 23 | 0 | 5 |
- Premium every week: FPL's most-captained player each gameweek.
- Underlying form: most expected goal involvements (xGI) over the previous 4 gameweeks, among midfielders and forwards who cost £7.0m+ at the start of the season, played 180+ minutes in them and started their last match; never the premium.
- Last week's top scorer: most points in the previous gameweek among the same players; never the premium.
- Hindsight best: the top scorer among those players and the premium (a ceiling, not a strategy).
- Model's top projection: the highest projection at each deadline (saved from GW6).
- Per week, worst and best are points before doubling; spread is the standard deviation; a blank is 2 points or fewer.
The model’s top projection has been saved since GW6: 4 captain points so far against 12 for the premium in the same weeks.
Over four seasons
The most-captained player blanked in 27.7% of gameweeks from 2022/23 to 2025/26 and was the best choice in only 19.9%, yet scored the most over the four seasons. A few weeks of this season decide very little. See should you always captain the top pick and should you always captain Haaland.
Week by week
| Premium | xGI form | Last top scorer | Model | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland 2 | – | – | – | Palmer 13 |
| 2 | Haaland 13 | Szoboszlai 4 | Palmer 7 | – | B.Fernandes 23 |
| 3 | Haaland 9 | B.Fernandes 2 | B.Fernandes 2 | – | Isak 13 |
| 4 | Haaland 9 | B.Fernandes 2 | Isak 2 | – | João Pedro 12 |
| 5 | Haaland 6 | B.Fernandes 2 | João Pedro 0 | – | Semenyo 17 |
| 6 | Haaland 6 | B.Fernandes 1 | Semenyo 3 | Saka 2 | Doku 12 |
How this was worked out
Generated from the data on Tue 13 Oct; nothing is written by hand. Expected goals at the deadline: recomputed: market ratings from closing prices of matches before 10 Oct (as the projection did that morning). Start chances and roles are the ones the projections had at the deadline (Sat 10 Oct). xG is FPL’s. Team ratings come from bookmakers’ closing prices, including this gameweek’s. Players listed are owned by 1%+ or among the 50 highest projected for the next five gameweeks.
FPL weekly email
One email before each deadline: our top captains, flagged players, price changes and the gameweek preview.