GW7 preview 2026/27

Published Sat 17 Oct · version 5 · locked at the deadline

Deadline Sat 17 Oct, 11:00. Locked at the deadline: the projections as they stood before kick-off.

This gameweek

Haaland leads the captaincy table on 8.7 projected points and a 30% chance of outscoring the other seven.
The most one-sided fixture: Manchester City against Ipswich, 2.8 goals expected for Manchester City.
7 teams play this gameweek on three days' rest or less after a midweek match: Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Manchester City and Sunderland.
Szoboszlai (Liverpool, 22.4% owned): Hamstring injury - 25% chance of playing.

What’s changed since GW6

Availability

Availability changes since the last deadline
	Change
João Pedro Chelsea	doubtful → available
Palmer Chelsea	doubtful → available
Szoboszlai Liverpool	available → doubtful Hamstring injury - 25% chance of playing
Semenyo Manchester City	doubtful → available
Schade Brentford	available → doubtful Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing
Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest	available → doubtful Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
Isak Liverpool	doubtful → doubtful Thigh injury - 25% chance of playing
Rice Arsenal	doubtful → available
van Ewijk Coventry	doubtful → available
Gakpo Liverpool	available → doubtful Ankle injury - 25% chance of playing
Havertz Arsenal	doubtful → available
Shaw Manchester United	available → doubtful Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Mendy Hull	available → injured Groin injury - Expected back 31 Oct
Brobbey Sunderland	doubtful → available
Tzolis Arsenal	available → injured Hamstring injury - Expected back 1 Nov
Pedro Porro Tottenham	doubtful → injured Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
James Chelsea	doubtful → injured Knee injury - Unknown return date
White Arsenal	doubtful → available
Scott Bournemouth	available → injured Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Mykolenko Everton	available → doubtful Leg injury - 50% chance of playing
Elanga Newcastle	injured → injured Unspecified injury - Expected back 25 Oct
Branthwaite Everton	available → doubtful Leg injury - 75% chance of playing
Igor Jesus Nottingham Forest	available → injured Calf injury - Unknown return date
Dunk Brighton	doubtful → available
Foden Manchester City	suspended → available

Prices

Price changes since the last deadline

Haaland Manchester City	£15.6m	£15.7m	76.3%
João Pedro Chelsea	£7.7m	£7.8m	72.1%
Calafiori Arsenal	£5.8m	£5.9m	53.2%
Rogers Chelsea	£7.7m	£7.9m	46.9%
Groß Brighton	£5.8m	£6.1m	43.6%
De Cuyper Brighton	£5.0m	£5.2m	39.4%
Cherki Manchester City	£7.8m	£7.9m	36.5%
B.Fernandes Manchester United	£11.9m	£11.8m	31.2%
Gvardiol Manchester City	£5.7m	£5.8m	28.9%
Verbruggen Brighton	£4.5m	£4.6m	22.4%
Szoboszlai Liverpool	£7.0m	£6.8m	22.4%
Gabriel Arsenal	£8.0m	£7.9m	21.2%
Mbeumo Manchester United	£7.9m	£7.8m	19.5%
Tarkowski Everton	£6.1m	£6.2m	18.4%
Saka Arsenal	£9.5m	£9.6m	16.9%
Semenyo Manchester City	£8.4m	£8.3m	14.6%
Isak Liverpool	£9.1m	£9.0m	12.1%
Rice Arsenal	£7.4m	£7.3m	10.9%
Bogle Leeds	£4.6m	£4.7m	9.5%
Kostoulas Brighton	£5.6m	£5.7m	9.1%
Barry Everton	£5.6m	£5.7m	8.7%
Belloumi Hull	£5.1m	£5.2m	8.7%
M.Sangaré Brentford	£5.6m	£5.5m	7.6%
van Ewijk Coventry	£4.0m	£3.9m	7.5%
Gonzalo Fulham	£6.0m	£6.1m	7.2%

Set-piece takers: Coventry penalties Wright → Rudoni; Aston Villa corners Cash → McGinn
Model changes:
- Sat 10 Oct: actual line-ups with positions from BBC screenshots; seeded roles corrected
- Sat 10 Oct: Fantasy Football Scout tactical roles had left and right swapped
- Sat 10 Oct: players can be listed in more than one position
- Sat 10 Oct: recent matches count for more in the depth chart's start record
- Sat 10 Oct: tied pecking-order ranks share places by start rate
- Sun 11 Oct: GW6 Saturday line-ups from BBC screenshots; seeded roles corrected
- Sun 11 Oct: GW6 Sunday line-ups from BBC screenshots; seeded roles corrected
- Sun 11 Oct: Liverpool v Man City line-ups from BBC screenshots
- Sun 11 Oct: positions seen in screenshots recorded as second positions, not replacements
- Mon 12 Oct: start record ignores matches not yet played

Fixtures

Expected goals for each side, read off the betting market where it prices the match, with each side’s chance of a clean sheet and FPL’s difficulty rating (FDR). Why both: xG or FDR?

Fixtures: expected goals, clean-sheet chance and FDR
			FDR
Everton v Chelsea	1.2–1.6	20%/29%	4/3
Fulham v Hull	1.9–0.9	41%/16%	2/3
Brentford v Liverpool	1.5–1.6	19%/22%	4/3
Manchester City v Ipswich	2.8–0.8	47%/6%	2/5
Newcastle v Aston Villa	1.7–1.4	26%/18%	3/3
Bournemouth v Sunderland	1.6–1.1	35%/21%	3/3
Leeds v Manchester United	1.3–1.7	19%/26%	4/3
Brighton v Crystal Palace	1.9–1.1	34%/15%	2/4
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal	0.9–1.8	17%/42%	4/3
Tottenham v Coventry	2.0–1.0	36%/13%	2/3

Midweek matches

Teams with a cup or European match before their GW7 game, and the rest in between. The projections don’t adjust start chances for this yet, so regular starters at teams on three days’ rest may be a little high. Each reflection measures whether they were rotated.

Teams with a cup or European match before their next league match

Aston Villa	Wed 14 Oct: Fenerbahçe (h) Champions League	Sat 17:30: Newcastle (a)	3 days
Bournemouth	Thu 15 Oct: Sturm Graz (h) Europa League	Sun 14:00: Sunderland (h)	3 days
Brighton	Thu 15 Oct: Kauno Žalgiris (h) Conference League	Sun 14:00: Crystal Palace (h)	3 days
Crystal Palace	Thu 15 Oct: Lyon (a) Europa League	Sun 14:00: Brighton (a)	3 days
Liverpool	Wed 14 Oct: LASK (a) Champions League	Sat 15:00: Brentford (a)	3 days
Manchester City	Wed 14 Oct: Paris Saint-Germain (h) Champions League	Sat 15:00: Ipswich (h)	3 days
Sunderland	Thu 15 Oct: Torreense (a) Europa League	Sun 14:00: Bournemouth (a)	3 days
Arsenal	Tue 13 Oct: Lille (h) Champions League	Sun 16:30: Nottingham Forest (a)	5 days
Manchester United	Tue 13 Oct: Atletico Madrid (a) Champions League	Sun 14:00: Leeds (a)	5 days

Coming up: Champions League and Conference League and Europa League before GW8 (9 teams, Tue 20 Oct–Thu 22 Oct); Carabao Cup before GW9 (13 teams, Tue 27 Oct–Thu 29 Oct).

Captaincy

The eight highest projections, and how often each scores the most of the eight across 20,000 simulated gameweeks (team goals shared, so teammates rise and fall together). The top projection is the best pick on average, but rarely by much: see should you always captain the top pick.

Captaincy: projected points and chance of the top score

Haaland Manchester City3 days’ rest	8.7	30%	–	–	96%	76.3%
Saka Arsenal5 days’ rest	6.1	14%	–	–	94%	16.9%
Tavernier Bournemouth3 days’ rest	5.9	12%	–	–	96%	7.7%
Gonzalo Fulham	5.7	9%	–	–	93%	7.2%
Groß Brighton3 days’ rest	5.6	11%	–	–	93%	43.6%
Cherki Manchester City3 days’ rest	5.4	9%	–	–	84%	36.5%
Wirtz Liverpool3 days’ rest	5.1	8%	–	–	94%	5%
B.Fernandes Manchester United5 days’ rest	5.1	8%	–	–	96%	31.2%

Best picks by position

Projected points for this gameweek, the next five and the next ten, ranked on the next five.

Goalkeepers

Best GK picks

Raya Arsenal	£6.1m	4.8	24.1	46.5
Donnarumma Manchester City	£5.5m	4.4	20.5	39.9
Martinez Chelsea	£5.0m	3.8	19.0	37.3
Kelleher Brentford	£5.0m	3.3	19.0	35.2
Trafford Leeds	£5.0m	3.3	17.9	36.7
Kinsky Tottenham	£4.5m	4.0	17.8	34.7
Leno Fulham	£4.5m	4.3	16.9	33.2
Tzolakis Hull	£4.7m	3.5	16.8	33.3

Defenders

Best DEF picks

Guéhi Manchester City	£6.0m	4.6	20.6	39.8
Calafiori Arsenal	£5.9m	4.0	20.6	39.1
Gabriel Arsenal	£7.9m	4.0	19.9	37.9
De Cuyper Brighton	£5.2m	4.6	18.7	39.3
Rúben Manchester City	£5.5m	4.0	17.9	34.6
Hall Newcastle	£5.3m	3.9	17.3	33.8
Van Hecke Tottenham	£4.9m	4.0	17.2	33.2
Thomas Coventry	£4.0m	2.9	16.9	32.3

Midfielders

Best MID picks

Saka Arsenal	£9.6m	6.1	33.0	63.3
Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.1m	5.9	28.3	56.6
B.Fernandes Manchester United	£11.8m	5.1	26.7	54.6
Palmer Chelsea	£9.7m	5.0	26.2	52.2
Ødegaard Arsenal	£6.8m	4.6	24.6	47.4
Rogers Chelsea	£7.9m	4.7	24.4	48.4
Groß Brighton	£6.1m	5.6	24.3	50.0
Mbeumo Manchester United	£7.8m	4.7	24.3	49.6

Forwards

Best FWD picks

Haaland Manchester City	£15.7m	8.7	37.2	71.9
Havertz Arsenal	£7.5m	4.7	25.5	48.9
Barry Everton	£5.7m	4.9	24.7	49.5
Thiago Brentford	£7.8m	4.8	24.2	45.0
Calvert-Lewin Leeds	£6.0m	5.0	24.0	49.8
João Pedro Chelsea	£7.8m	4.5	23.8	47.4
Emersonn Ipswich	£5.6m	3.5	23.4	47.8
Gonzalo Fulham	£6.1m	5.7	23.1	44.7

Value

Most projected points per million over five gameweeks

Tavernier Bournemouth	£6.1m	5.9	28.3	56.6	4.64
Barry Everton	£5.7m	4.9	24.7	49.5	4.33
Thomas Coventry	£4.0m	2.9	16.9	32.3	4.22
Emersonn Ipswich	£5.6m	3.5	23.4	47.8	4.18
Calvert-Lewin Leeds	£6.0m	5.0	24.0	49.8	4.00
Groß Brighton	£6.1m	5.6	24.3	50.0	3.98
Kinsky Tottenham	£4.5m	4.0	17.8	34.7	3.96
Raya Arsenal	£6.1m	4.8	24.1	46.5	3.95

Differentials

Highest projected players owned by under 5%

Emersonn Ipswich	£5.6m	3.5	23.4	47.8	3.8%
Evanilson Bournemouth	£6.1m	4.6	22.6	45.8	3.9%
E.Le Fée Sunderland	£5.7m	4.2	22.3	45.1	3%
Buendía Aston Villa	£5.9m	4.2	20.7	43.0	1.2%
Marmoush Tottenham	£7.0m	4.7	20.4	38.7	2%
Iwobi Fulham	£5.4m	4.8	20.3	39.5	0.8%
Stach Leeds	£6.0m	4.0	19.9	41.0	2.3%
N.Jackson Aston Villa	£6.6m	4.0	19.4	40.6	4%

Value and differentials: players at least 70% to start.

Minutes watch

Popular or highly projected players under 70% to start
			Why
Szoboszlai Liverpool	20%	22.4%	Hamstring injury - 25% chance of playing
Dubravka Tottenham	2%	16.7%	started 0 of 6 available
Isak Liverpool	23%	12.1%	Thigh injury - 25% chance of playing
O'Reilly Manchester City	33%	9.4%	started 3 of 6 available
M.Sangaré Brentford	66%	7.6%	started 4 of 6 available
Gakpo Liverpool	22%	6.6%	Ankle injury - 25% chance of playing
Hughes Crystal Palace	2%	6.3%	started 0 of 6 available
Shaw Manchester United	58%	6%	Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Mendy Hull	0%	5.9%	Groin injury - Expected back 31 Oct
Ndiaye Manchester City	50%	5.5%	pecking order
Tzolis Arsenal	0%	5.4%	Hamstring injury - Expected back 1 Nov
Pedro Porro Tottenham	0%	5.2%	Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
Kusi-Asare Fulham	1%	5.1%	started 0 of 6 available

The next ten gameweeks

Each side’s expected goals in every fixture from GW7 to GW16, darker for more goals (under 1.0, 1.0–1.5, 1.5–2.0, 2.0+). Opponents in capitals are at home.

Expected goals by fixture for the next ten gameweeks
Team	For, 5 GW	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16
Manchester City	11.2	IPS 2.8	avl 2.0	BHA 2.1	nfo 1.9	FUL 2.4	ars 1.2	LEE 2.2	bre 1.8	CHE 2.0	HUL 3.0
Arsenal	10.2	nfo 1.8	EVE 2.1	liv 1.6	HUL 2.8	new 1.9	MCI 1.5	bre 1.7	tot 1.8	BOU 2.1	MUN 1.9
Chelsea	8.7	eve 1.6	TOT 1.9	MUN 1.7	sun 1.6	LEE 1.8	nfo 1.6	CRY 2.2	LIV 1.7	mci 1.1	AVL 2.0
Tottenham	8.4	COV 2.0	che 1.2	CRY 1.8	lee 1.3	IPS 2.0	sun 1.3	FUL 1.7	ARS 1.0	hul 1.8	liv 1.2
Brentford	8.3	LIV 1.5	hul 1.9	NFO 1.7	bha 1.4	EVE 1.7	mun 1.3	ARS 1.1	MCI 1.2	ful 1.5	NEW 1.9
Manchester United	8.9	lee 1.7	BOU 2.1	che 1.5	AVL 2.1	liv 1.5	BRE 2.0	new 1.9	COV 2.6	cry 2.0	ars 1.1
Liverpool	8.5	bre 1.6	BHA 1.9	ARS 1.2	cry 1.9	MUN 1.8	eve 1.7	SUN 2.0	che 1.5	LEE 1.9	TOT 2.0
Bournemouth	7.6	SUN 1.6	mun 1.2	LEE 1.5	ips 1.7	NFO 1.6	ful 1.4	BHA 1.5	HUL 2.1	ars 0.8	COV 2.0
Brighton	7.5	CRY 1.9	liv 1.2	mci 1.0	BRE 1.6	hul 1.8	NEW 1.8	bou 1.4	nfo 1.4	EVE 1.6	IPS 2.1
Newcastle	7.4	AVL 1.7	cry 1.6	EVE 1.6	ful 1.4	ARS 1.0	bha 1.3	MUN 1.5	SUN 1.6	ips 1.7	bre 1.3
Fulham	6.9	HUL 1.9	cov 1.5	avl 1.2	NEW 1.5	mci 0.8	BOU 1.4	tot 1.2	eve 1.2	BRE 1.4	lee 1.1
Leeds	6.4	MUN 1.3	sun 1.2	bou 1.3	TOT 1.4	che 1.1	COV 1.9	mci 0.9	IPS 1.9	liv 1.1	FUL 1.6
Sunderland	5.9	bou 1.1	LEE 1.2	cov 1.4	CHE 1.1	avl 1.1	TOT 1.2	liv 0.9	new 1.1	NFO 1.3	CRY 1.4
Aston Villa	6.6	new 1.4	MCI 1.1	FUL 1.6	mun 1.1	SUN 1.5	ips 1.6	EVE 1.5	CRY 1.7	cov 1.6	che 1.1
Everton	6.1	CHE 1.2	ars 0.7	new 1.3	COV 1.8	bre 1.1	LIV 1.2	avl 1.2	FUL 1.5	bha 1.1	nfo 1.2
Coventry	6.0	tot 1.0	FUL 1.3	SUN 1.2	eve 1.0	CRY 1.4	lee 1.0	IPS 1.5	mun 0.9	AVL 1.3	bou 1.0
Crystal Palace	6.2	bha 1.1	NEW 1.4	tot 1.1	LIV 1.2	cov 1.4	HUL 1.8	che 1.0	avl 1.2	MUN 1.2	sun 1.1
Nottingham Forest	5.7	ARS 0.9	ips 1.5	bre 1.1	MCI 1.0	bou 1.2	CHE 1.3	hul 1.6	BHA 1.3	sun 1.2	EVE 1.4
Ipswich	5.8	mci 0.8	NFO 1.3	hul 1.4	BOU 1.3	tot 1.1	AVL 1.3	cov 1.4	lee 1.0	NEW 1.4	bha 1.0
Hull	4.7	ful 0.9	BRE 1.0	IPS 1.3	ars 0.5	BHA 1.0	cry 1.0	NFO 1.0	bou 0.9	TOT 1.0	mci 0.6

For the best squad over these weeks within the budget, see the optimal squad.

How this was worked out

Generated from FixtureShark’s projections (deadline snapshot) on Sat 17 Oct; nothing is written by hand. Team goals come from betting-market ratings where a price exists, otherwise from the Dixon-Coles model. Players listed are owned by 1%+ or among the 50 highest projected for the next five gameweeks.

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