Mertens E. v Osaka N.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Osaka N. leads Mertens E. 7–3 in 10 tour-level meetings; Osaka N. has won the last 3.
Who wins?
fair odds 2.90fair odds 1.53
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Mertens E. (green), to the right Osaka N. (gold).
| Mertens E. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 34% | 41% | 42% |
| Best of 5 | 29% | 39% | 41% |
Their record
| Mertens E. | Osaka N. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 3 | 7 |
| Hard | 3 | 5 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| 1000 | 2 | 2 |
| Premier | 1 | 2 |
| 250 | 0 | 2 |
Plus 1 walkover, not counted.
Ratings now
| Mertens E. | Osaka N. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1804 (516) | 1958 (370) |
| Hard | 1729 (323) | 1910 (262) |
| Clay | 1747 (120) | 1792 (66) |
| Grass | 1746 (73) | 1770 (42) |
| Ranking at last match | 19 | 13 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (11)
| 6 Sept 2026 | US Open Grand Slam3rd Round | Osaka N. (13) |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Canadian Open 10003rd Round | Osaka N. (13) |
| 23 Jun 2026 | Bad Homburg Open 2502nd Round | Osaka N. (15) |
| 9 Aug 2024 | Canadian Open 10002nd Round | Mertens E. (35) |
| 11 Jun 2024 | Rosmalen Grass Court Championships 2501st Round | Osaka N. (125) |
| 11 Mar 2024 | BNP Paribas Open 10003rd Round | Mertens E. (28) |
| 29 Mar 2021 | Miami Open 10004th Round | Osaka N. (2) |
| 6 Feb 2021 | Gippsland Trophy 500Semifinals | Mertens E. (20) |
| 28 Aug 2020 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open PremierSemifinals | Osaka N. (10) |
| 21 Sept 2019 | Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis Tournament PremierSemifinals | Osaka N. (4) |
| 25 Sept 2017 | Wuhan Open Premier1st Round | Mertens E. (38) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.