Sinner J. v Zverev A.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Sinner J. leads Zverev A. 11–4 in 15 tour-level meetings; Sinner J. has won the last 10.
Who wins?
fair odds 1.37fair odds 3.68
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Sinner J. (green), to the right Zverev A. (gold).
| Sinner J. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 73% | 66% | 69% |
| Best of 5 | 79% | 69% | 74% |
Their record
| Sinner J. | Zverev A. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 11 | 4 |
| Hard | 7 | 3 |
| Clay | 3 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 3 | 2 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 0 |
| 1000 | 6 | 1 |
| 500 | 1 | 0 |
| 250 | 0 | 1 |
| In finals | 4 | 0 |
Ratings now
| Sinner J. | Zverev A. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2318 (434) | 2066 (752) |
| Hard | 2272 (280) | 2008 (426) |
| Clay | 2129 (108) | 2028 (247) |
| Grass | 2060 (46) | 1878 (79) |
| Ranking at last match | 1 | 2 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (15)
| 12 Jul 2026 | Wimbledon Grand SlamFinal | Sinner J. (1) |
| 3 May 2026 | Mutua Madrid Open 1000Final | Sinner J. (1) |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Monte Carlo Masters 1000Semifinals | Sinner J. (2) |
| 27 Mar 2026 | Miami Open 1000Semifinals | Sinner J. (2) |
| 14 Mar 2026 | BNP Paribas Open 1000Semifinals | Sinner J. (2) |
| 12 Nov 2025 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin | Sinner J. (2) |
| 1 Nov 2025 | BNP Paribas Masters 1000Semifinals | Sinner J. (2) |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Vienna Open 500Final | Sinner J. (2) |
| 26 Jan 2025 | Australian Open Grand SlamFinal | Sinner J. (1) |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 1000Semifinals | Sinner J. (1) |
| 5 Sept 2023 | US Open Grand Slam4th Round | Zverev A. (12) |
| 15 Apr 2022 | Monte Carlo Masters 1000Quarterfinals | Zverev A. (3) |
| 6 Sept 2021 | US Open Grand Slam4th Round | Zverev A. (4) |
| 24 Oct 2020 | bett1HULKS Championship 250Semifinals | Zverev A. (7) |
| 4 Oct 2020 | French Open Grand Slam4th Round | Sinner J. (75) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.