Sabalenka A. v Swiatek I.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Swiatek I. leads Sabalenka A. 8–5 in 13 tour-level meetings; Sabalenka A. has won the last 2.
Who wins?
fair odds 1.57fair odds 2.74
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Sabalenka A. (green), to the right Swiatek I. (gold).
| Sabalenka A. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 64% | 57% | 58% |
| Best of 5 | 67% | 55% | 57% |
Their record
| Sabalenka A. | Swiatek I. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 5 | 8 |
| Hard | 3 | 3 |
| Clay | 2 | 5 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| Tour Finals | 2 | 1 |
| 1000 | 2 | 4 |
| 500 | 0 | 2 |
| In finals | 1 | 5 |
Ratings now
| Sabalenka A. | Swiatek I. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2117 (552) | 2046 (417) |
| Hard | 2123 (364) | 2019 (250) |
| Clay | 1996 (127) | 2051 (130) |
| Grass | 1853 (61) | 1876 (37) |
| Ranking at last match | 2 | 8 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (13)
| 5 Jun 2025 | French Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Sabalenka A. (1) |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Western & Southern Financial Group Women's Open 1000Semifinals | Sabalenka A. (3) |
| 18 May 2024 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Final | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 4 May 2024 | Mutua Madrid Open 1000Final | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 5 Nov 2023 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsFinal | Swiatek I. (2) |
| 6 May 2023 | Mutua Madrid Open 1000Final | Sabalenka A. (2) |
| 23 Apr 2023 | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix 500Final | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 7 Nov 2022 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsSemifinals | Sabalenka A. (7) |
| 9 Sept 2022 | US Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 14 May 2022 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Semifinals | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 24 Apr 2022 | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix 500Final | Swiatek I. (1) |
| 24 Feb 2022 | Qatar Open 1000Quarterfinals | Swiatek I. (8) |
| 14 Nov 2021 | WTA Finals Tour FinalsRound Robin | Sabalenka A. (2) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2007, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.