Rublev A. v Sinner J.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Sinner J. leads Rublev A. 8–3 in 11 tour-level meetings; Sinner J. has won the last 3.
Who wins?
fair odds 10.32fair odds 1.11
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Rublev A. (green), to the right Sinner J. (gold).
| Rublev A. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 10% | 15% | 14% |
| Best of 5 | 5% | 11% | 9% |
Their record
| Rublev A. | Sinner J. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 3 | 8 |
| Hard | 2 | 4 |
| Clay | 1 | 4 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 2 |
| 1000 | 1 | 4 |
| 500 | 1 | 2 |
Ratings now
| Rublev A. | Sinner J. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1835 (593) | 2318 (434) |
| Hard | 1782 (403) | 2272 (280) |
| Clay | 1873 (153) | 2129 (108) |
| Grass | 1724 (37) | 2060 (46) |
| Ranking at last match | 25 | 1 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (11)
| 14 May 2026 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Quarterfinals | Sinner J. (1) |
| 2 Jun 2025 | French Open Grand Slam4th Round | Sinner J. (1) |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 1000Quarterfinals | Sinner J. (1) |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Canadian Open 1000Quarterfinals | Rublev A. (8) |
| 23 Jan 2024 | Australian Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Sinner J. (4) |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Vienna Open 500Semifinals | Sinner J. (4) |
| 28 Mar 2023 | Miami Open 10004th Round | Sinner J. (11) |
| 30 May 2022 | French Open Grand Slam4th Round | Rublev A. (7) |
| 14 Apr 2022 | Monte Carlo Masters 10003rd Round | Sinner J. (12) |
| 23 Apr 2021 | Barcelona Open 500Quarterfinals | Sinner J. (19) |
| 29 Oct 2020 | Erste Bank Open 5002nd Round | Rublev A. (8) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.