Medvedev D. v Sinner J.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Sinner J. leads Medvedev D. 10–7 in 17 tour-level meetings; Sinner J. has won the last 5.
Who wins?
fair odds 5.42fair odds 1.23
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Medvedev D. (green), to the right Sinner J. (gold).
| Medvedev D. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 18% | 20% | 23% |
| Best of 5 | 12% | 15% | 18% |
Their record
| Medvedev D. | Sinner J. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 7 | 10 |
| Hard | 6 | 9 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 2 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 2 |
| 1000 | 1 | 4 |
| 500 | 2 | 2 |
| 250 | 2 | 0 |
| In finals | 2 | 4 |
Ratings now
| Medvedev D. | Sinner J. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1922 (617) | 2318 (434) |
| Hard | 1937 (446) | 2272 (280) |
| Clay | 1833 (86) | 2129 (108) |
| Grass | 1831 (85) | 2060 (46) |
| Ranking at last match | 6 | 1 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (17)
| 16 May 2026 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Semifinals | Sinner J. (1) |
| 15 Mar 2026 | BNP Paribas Open 1000Final | Sinner J. (2) |
| 14 Nov 2024 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin | Sinner J. (1) |
| 10 Oct 2024 | Shanghai Masters 1000Quarterfinals | Sinner J. (1) |
| 5 Sept 2024 | US Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Sinner J. (1) |
| 9 Jul 2024 | Wimbledon Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Medvedev D. (5) |
| 29 Mar 2024 | Miami Open 1000Semifinals | Sinner J. (3) |
| 28 Jan 2024 | Australian Open Grand SlamFinal | Sinner J. (4) |
| 18 Nov 2023 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsSemifinals | Sinner J. (4) |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Vienna Open 500Final | Sinner J. (4) |
| 4 Oct 2023 | China Open 500Final | Sinner J. (7) |
| 2 Apr 2023 | Miami Open 1000Final | Medvedev D. (5) |
| 19 Feb 2023 | ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament 500Final | Medvedev D. (11) |
| 28 Oct 2022 | Vienna Open 500Quarterfinals | Medvedev D. (4) |
| 18 Nov 2021 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin | Medvedev D. (2) |
| 12 Mar 2021 | Open 13 250Quarterfinals | Medvedev D. (3) |
| 20 Feb 2020 | Open 13 2502nd Round | Medvedev D. (5) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.