Tennis · Predict

Mannarino A. v Thompson J.

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Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.

PlayerOpponent

Mannarino A. leads Thompson J. 7–4 in 11 tour-level meetings; Mannarino A. has won the last 2.

Who wins?

SurfaceMatch

Mannarino A. 47%53% Thompson J.

fair odds 2.13fair odds 1.88

On hard, best of 3, if they met now.

What drives it

Overall rating
Rating on this surface
Ranking
Previous meetings

Bars to the left favour Mannarino A. (green), to the right Thompson J. (gold).

Mannarino A.'s chance on each surface
Mannarino A. wins	Hard	Clay	Grass
Best of 3	47%	45%	50%
Best of 5	44%	40%	49%

Their record

Head-to-head record
	Mannarino A.	Thompson J.
All meetings	7	4
Hard	3	3
Grass	4	1
Grand Slam	1	0
1000	1	1
500	0	1
250	5	2
In finals	1	0

Ratings now

Elo ratings overall and by surface
	Mannarino A.	Thompson J.
Overall	1675 (698)	1770 (319)
Hard	1670 (469)	1744 (205)
Clay	1349 (93)	1491 (47)
Grass	1698 (135)	1713 (67)
Ranking at last match	78	111

Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.

Every meeting (11)

					Score
27 Aug 2025	US Open Grand Slam2nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Mannarino A. (77)	6-4 6-7 6-3 6-3	38%
7 Aug 2025	Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 10001st Round	1st Round	Hard	Mannarino A. (89)	6-2 6-2	36%
31 Oct 2024	BNP Paribas Masters 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Thompson J. (28)	7-5 7-6	62%
2 Aug 2023	Citi Open 5002nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Thompson J. (71)	7-5 6-4	36%
20 Jul 2023	Hall of Fame Championships 250Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Grass	Mannarino A. (38)	6-0 6-7 6-2	58%
16 Jun 2023	Rosmalen Grass Court Championships 250Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Grass	Thompson J. (103)	5-7 7-6 6-2	38%
9 Feb 2023	Dallas Open 2502nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Mannarino A. (63)	6-2 7-6	60%
16 Jun 2019	Rosmalen Grass Court Championships 250Final	Final	Grass	Mannarino A. (44)	7-6 6-3	57%
6 Jan 2019	Sydney International 2501st Round	1st Round	Hard	Thompson J. (72)	6-3 6-3	31%
18 Jul 2018	Hall of Fame Championships 2502nd Round	2nd Round	Grass	Mannarino A. (26)	6-2 7-6	76%
13 Jun 2017	Ricoh Open 2501st Round	1st Round	Grass	Mannarino A. (62)	6-4 6-1	63%

"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.

How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.