Tennis · Predict

Djokovic N. v Wawrinka S.

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Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.

PlayerOpponent

Djokovic N. leads Wawrinka S. 20–6 in 26 tour-level meetings; Djokovic N. has won the last 2.

Who wins?

SurfaceMatch

Djokovic N. 89%11% Wawrinka S.

fair odds 1.12fair odds 9.25

On hard, best of 3, if they met now.

What drives it

Overall rating
Rating on this surface
Ranking
Previous meetings

Bars to the left favour Djokovic N. (green), to the right Wawrinka S. (gold).

Djokovic N.'s chance on each surface
Djokovic N. wins	Hard	Clay	Grass
Best of 3	89%	89%	89%
Best of 5	94%	93%	95%

Their record

Head-to-head record
	Djokovic N.	Wawrinka S.
All meetings	20	6
Hard	13	4
Clay	6	2
Grass	1	0
Grand Slam	5	4
Tour Finals	2	0
1000	11	0
500	2	1
250	0	1
In finals	2	3

Ratings now

Elo ratings overall and by surface
	Djokovic N.	Wawrinka S.
Overall	2127 (1329)	1653 (930)
Hard	2127 (819)	1705 (529)
Clay	2049 (351)	1639 (313)
Grass	2145 (146)	1631 (68)
Ranking at last match	5	127

Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.

Every meeting (26)

					Score
7 Jul 2023	Wimbledon Grand Slam3rd Round	3rd Round	Grass	Djokovic N. (2)	6-3 6-1 7-6	95%
12 May 2022	Internazionali BNL d'Italia 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Clay	Djokovic N. (1)	6-2 6-2	89%
2 Sept 2019	US Open Grand Slam4th Round	4th Round	Hard	Wawrinka S. (24)	6-4 7-5 2-1 ret.	11%
11 Sept 2016	US Open Grand SlamFinal	Final	Hard	Wawrinka S. (3)	6-7 6-4 7-5 6-3	14%
7 Nov 2015	BNP Paribas Masters 1000Semifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	6-3 3-6 6-0	79%
21 Aug 2015	Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	6-4 6-1	80%
7 Jun 2015	French Open Grand SlamFinal	Final	Clay	Wawrinka S. (9)	4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4	14%
30 Jan 2015	Australian Open Grand SlamSemifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	7-6 3-6 6-4 4-6 6-0	84%
12 Nov 2014	Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin	Round Robin	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	6-3 6-0	80%
21 Jan 2014	Australian Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Wawrinka S. (8)	2-6 6-4 6-2 3-6 9-7	14%
10 Nov 2013	Masters Cup Tour FinalsSemifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (2)	6-3 6-3	79%
1 Nov 2013	BNP Paribas Masters 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (2)	6-1 6-4	79%
7 Sept 2013	US Open Grand SlamSemifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	2-6 7-6 3-6 6-3 6-4	87%
20 Jan 2013	Australian Open Grand Slam4th Round	4th Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	1-6 7-5 6-4 6-7 12-10	90%
5 Sept 2012	US Open Grand Slam4th Round	4th Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (2)	6-4 6-1 3-1 ret.	87%
10 May 2012	Mutua Madrid Open 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Clay	Djokovic N. (1)	7-6 6-4	83%
12 May 2011	Internazionali BNL d'Italia 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Clay	Djokovic N. (2)	6-4 6-1	78%
15 Apr 2010	Monte Carlo Masters 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Clay	Djokovic N. (2)	6-4 6-4	78%
6 Nov 2009	Davidoff Swiss Indoors 500Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (3)	3-6 7-6 6-2	78%
18 Apr 2009	Monte Carlo Masters 1000Semifinals	Semifinals	Clay	Djokovic N. (3)	4-6 6-1 6-3	72%
18 Mar 2009	BNP Paribas Open 10004th Round	4th Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (3)	7-6 7-6	75%
11 May 2008	Internazionali BNL d'Italia 1000Final	Final	Clay	Djokovic N. (3)	4-6 6-3 6-3	72%
20 Mar 2008	Pacific Life Open 1000Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (3)	7-6 6-2	76%
14 Oct 2007	BA-CA Tennis Trophy 500Final	Final	Hard	Djokovic N. (3)	6-4 6-0	79%
12 Oct 2006	BA-CA Tennis Trophy 5002nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Wawrinka S. (44)	6-3 6-3	41%
30 Jul 2006	Croatia Open 250Final	Final	Clay	Wawrinka S. (69)	6-6 ret.	37%

"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.

How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.