Djokovic N. v Sinner J.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Sinner J. leads Djokovic N. 6–5 in 11 tour-level meetings.
Who wins?
fair odds 3.36fair odds 1.42
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Djokovic N. (green), to the right Sinner J. (gold).
| Djokovic N. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 30% | 33% | 39% |
| Best of 5 | 26% | 30% | 42% |
Their record
| Djokovic N. | Sinner J. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 5 | 6 |
| Hard | 2 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 2 | 2 |
| Grand Slam | 3 | 4 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 1 |
| 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| In finals | 1 | 1 |
Ratings now
| Djokovic N. | Sinner J. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2127 (1329) | 2318 (434) |
| Hard | 2127 (819) | 2272 (280) |
| Clay | 2049 (351) | 2129 (108) |
| Grass | 2145 (146) | 2060 (46) |
| Ranking at last match | 5 | 1 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (11)
| 10 Jul 2026 | Wimbledon Grand SlamSemifinals | Sinner J. (1) |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Australian Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Djokovic N. (4) |
| 11 Jul 2025 | Wimbledon Grand SlamSemifinals | Sinner J. (1) |
| 6 Jun 2025 | French Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Sinner J. (1) |
| 13 Oct 2024 | Shanghai Masters 1000Final | Sinner J. (1) |
| 26 Jan 2024 | Australian Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Sinner J. (4) |
| 19 Nov 2023 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsFinal | Djokovic N. (1) |
| 14 Nov 2023 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin | Sinner J. (4) |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Wimbledon Grand SlamSemifinals | Djokovic N. (2) |
| 5 Jul 2022 | Wimbledon Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Djokovic N. (3) |
| 14 Apr 2021 | Monte Carlo Masters 10002nd Round | Djokovic N. (1) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.