Djokovic N. v Medvedev D.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Djokovic N. leads Medvedev D. 8–5 in 13 tour-level meetings.
Who wins?
fair odds 1.52fair odds 2.92
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Djokovic N. (green), to the right Medvedev D. (gold).
| Djokovic N. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 66% | 66% | 69% |
| Best of 5 | 71% | 72% | 78% |
Their record
| Djokovic N. | Medvedev D. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 8 | 5 |
| Hard | 7 | 4 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 3 | 1 |
| Tour Finals | 1 | 1 |
| 1000 | 1 | 2 |
| 500 | 1 | 1 |
| 250 | 2 | 0 |
| In finals | 3 | 1 |
Ratings now
| Djokovic N. | Medvedev D. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2127 (1329) | 1922 (617) |
| Hard | 2127 (819) | 1937 (446) |
| Clay | 2049 (351) | 1833 (86) |
| Grass | 2145 (146) | 1831 (85) |
| Ranking at last match | 5 | 6 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (13)
| 10 Sept 2023 | US Open Grand SlamFinal | Djokovic N. (2) |
| 3 Mar 2023 | Dubai Tennis Championships 500Semifinals | Medvedev D. (7) |
| 7 Jan 2023 | Adelaide International 1 250Semifinals | Djokovic N. (5) |
| 18 Nov 2022 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin | Djokovic N. (8) |
| 8 Oct 2022 | Astana Open 500Semifinals | Djokovic N. (7) |
| 7 Nov 2021 | BNP Paribas Masters 1000Final | Djokovic N. (1) |
| 12 Sept 2021 | US Open Grand SlamFinal | Medvedev D. (2) |
| 21 Feb 2021 | Australian Open Grand SlamFinal | Djokovic N. (1) |
| 18 Nov 2020 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin | Medvedev D. (4) |
| 17 Aug 2019 | Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 1000Semifinals | Medvedev D. (8) |
| 19 Apr 2019 | Monte Carlo Masters 1000Quarterfinals | Medvedev D. (14) |
| 21 Jan 2019 | Australian Open Grand Slam4th Round | Djokovic N. (1) |
| 30 Jun 2017 | AEGON International 250Semifinals | Djokovic N. (4) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.