Dimitrov G. v Medvedev D.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Medvedev D. leads Dimitrov G. 8–3 in 11 tour-level meetings; Medvedev D. has won the last 2.
Who wins?
fair odds 3.81fair odds 1.36
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour Dimitrov G. (green), to the right Medvedev D. (gold).
| Dimitrov G. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 26% | 28% | 28% |
| Best of 5 | 24% | 26% | 27% |
Their record
| Dimitrov G. | Medvedev D. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 3 | 8 |
| Hard | 2 | 7 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| 1000 | 2 | 2 |
| 500 | 1 | 4 |
Plus 1 walkover, not counted.
Ratings now
| Dimitrov G. | Medvedev D. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1848 (782) | 1922 (617) |
| Hard | 1843 (513) | 1937 (446) |
| Clay | 1765 (181) | 1833 (86) |
| Grass | 1787 (88) | 1831 (85) |
| Ranking at last match | 137 | 6 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (12)
| 29 Oct 2025 | BNP Paribas Masters 10002nd Round | Medvedev D. (13) |
| 7 Jul 2024 | Wimbledon Grand Slam4th Round | Medvedev D. (5) |
| 13 Mar 2024 | BNP Paribas Open 10004th Round | Medvedev D. (4) |
| 1 Nov 2023 | BNP Paribas Masters 10002nd Round | Dimitrov G. (17) |
| 26 Oct 2023 | Vienna Open 5002nd Round | Medvedev D. (3) |
| 18 Feb 2023 | ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament 500Semifinals | Medvedev D. (11) |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Vienna Open 500Semifinals | Medvedev D. (4) |
| 13 Oct 2021 | BNP Paribas Open 10004th Round | Dimitrov G. (28) |
| 19 Aug 2021 | Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 10003rd Round | Medvedev D. (2) |
| 6 Sept 2019 | US Open Grand SlamSemifinals | Medvedev D. (5) |
| 4 Aug 2017 | Citi Open 5003rd Round | Medvedev D. (50) |
| 23 Jun 2017 | AEGON Championships 500Quarterfinals | Dimitrov G. (11) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.