Tennis · Predict

Dimitrov G. v Djokovic N.

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Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.

PlayerOpponent

Djokovic N. leads Dimitrov G. 13–1 in 14 tour-level meetings; Djokovic N. has won the last 11.

Who wins?

SurfaceMatch

Dimitrov G. 15%85% Djokovic N.

fair odds 6.50fair odds 1.18

On hard, best of 3, if they met now.

What drives it

Overall rating
Rating on this surface
Ranking
Previous meetings

Bars to the left favour Dimitrov G. (green), to the right Djokovic N. (gold).

Dimitrov G.'s chance on each surface
Dimitrov G. wins	Hard	Clay	Grass
Best of 3	15%	16%	15%
Best of 5	11%	11%	10%

Their record

Head-to-head record
	Dimitrov G.	Djokovic N.
All meetings	1	13
Hard	0	9
Clay	1	2
Grass	0	2
Grand Slam	0	3
1000	1	8
500	0	2
In finals	0	1

Ratings now

Elo ratings overall and by surface
	Dimitrov G.	Djokovic N.
Overall	1848 (782)	2127 (1329)
Hard	1843 (513)	2127 (819)
Clay	1765 (181)	2049 (351)
Grass	1787 (88)	2145 (146)
Ranking at last match	137	5

Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.

Every meeting (14)

					Score
28 Mar 2025	Miami Open 1000Semifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (5)	6-2 6-3	74%
5 Nov 2023	BNP Paribas Masters 1000Final	Final	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	6-4 6-3	85%
14 May 2023	Internazionali BNL d'Italia 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Clay	Djokovic N. (1)	6-3 4-6 6-1	86%
21 Jan 2023	Australian Open Grand Slam3rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (5)	7-6 6-3 6-4	91%
2 Nov 2019	BNP Paribas Masters 1000Semifinals	Semifinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	7-6 6-4	87%
17 Aug 2018	Western & Southern Financial Group Masters 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (10)	2-6 6-3 6-4	67%
21 Jun 2018	AEGON Championships 5002nd Round	2nd Round	Grass	Djokovic N. (22)	6-4 6-1	64%
3 Nov 2016	BNP Paribas Masters 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	4-6 6-2 6-3	89%
3 Oct 2014	China Open 500Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	6-2 6-4	82%
4 Jul 2014	Wimbledon Grand SlamSemifinals	Semifinals	Grass	Djokovic N. (2)	6-4 3-6 7-6 7-6	82%
1 Jun 2013	French Open Grand Slam3rd Round	3rd Round	Clay	Djokovic N. (1)	6-2 6-2 6-3	91%
7 May 2013	Mutua Madrid Open 10002nd Round	2nd Round	Clay	Dimitrov G. (28)	7-6 6-7 6-3	11%
12 Mar 2013	BNP Paribas Open 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (1)	7-6 6-1	90%
10 Oct 2012	Shanghai Masters 10002nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Djokovic N. (2)	6-3 6-2	90%

"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.

How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.