Tennis · Predict

De Minaur A. v Tsitsipas S.

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Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.

PlayerOpponent

Tsitsipas S. leads De Minaur A. 10–2 in 12 tour-level meetings.

Who wins?

SurfaceMatch

De Minaur A. 66%34% Tsitsipas S.

fair odds 1.52fair odds 2.92

On hard, best of 3, if they met now.

What drives it

Overall rating
Rating on this surface
Ranking
Previous meetings

Bars to the left favour De Minaur A. (green), to the right Tsitsipas S. (gold).

De Minaur A.'s chance on each surface
De Minaur A. wins	Hard	Clay	Grass
Best of 3	66%	57%	68%
Best of 5	69%	54%	73%

Their record

Head-to-head record
	De Minaur A.	Tsitsipas S.
All meetings	2	10
Hard	2	7
Clay	0	3
1000	0	5
500	2	4
250	0	1
In finals	0	1

Ratings now

Elo ratings overall and by surface
	De Minaur A.	Tsitsipas S.
Overall	1899 (475)	1826 (550)
Hard	1887 (323)	1783 (331)
Clay	1817 (87)	1908 (174)
Grass	1836 (65)	1652 (45)
Ranking at last match	7	53

Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.

Every meeting (12)

					Score
29 Jul 2026	Citi Open 5001st Round	1st Round	Hard	De Minaur A. (6)	6-4 3-6 6-3	68%
21 Mar 2026	Miami Open 10002nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Tsitsipas S. (51)	6-3 7-6	29%
14 May 2024	Internazionali BNL d'Italia 10004th Round	4th Round	Clay	Tsitsipas S. (8)	6-1 6-2	65%
1 Mar 2024	Abierto Mexicano 500Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	De Minaur A. (9)	1-6 6-3 6-3	49%
6 Aug 2023	Los Cabos Open 250Final	Final	Hard	Tsitsipas S. (5)	6-3 6-4	67%
21 Apr 2023	Barcelona Open 500Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Clay	Tsitsipas S. (5)	6-4 6-2	76%
29 Mar 2022	Miami Open 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Tsitsipas S. (5)	6-4 6-3	73%
11 Feb 2022	ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament 500Quarterfinals	Quarterfinals	Hard	Tsitsipas S. (4)	6-4 6-4	77%
14 Oct 2021	BNP Paribas Open 10004th Round	4th Round	Hard	Tsitsipas S. (3)	6-7 7-6 6-2	79%
22 Apr 2021	Barcelona Open 5003rd Round	3rd Round	Clay	Tsitsipas S. (5)	7-5 6-3	82%
31 Oct 2019	BNP Paribas Masters 10003rd Round	3rd Round	Hard	Tsitsipas S. (7)	6-3 6-4	60%
4 Oct 2018	Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships 5002nd Round	2nd Round	Hard	Tsitsipas S. (15)	6-3 5-7 6-1	54%

"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.

How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.