De Minaur A. v Sinner J.
Pick any two players for their record against each other and who our model makes favourite, on each surface.
Sinner J. leads De Minaur A. 10–0 in 10 tour-level meetings; Sinner J. has won the last 10.
Who wins?
fair odds 6.70fair odds 1.18
On hard, best of 3, if they met now.
What drives it
- Overall rating
- Rating on this surface
- Ranking
- Previous meetings
Bars to the left favour De Minaur A. (green), to the right Sinner J. (gold).
| De Minaur A. wins | Hard | Clay | Grass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best of 3 | 15% | 18% | 20% |
| Best of 5 | 9% | 12% | 16% |
Their record
| De Minaur A. | Sinner J. | |
|---|---|---|
| All meetings | 0 | 10 |
| Hard | 0 | 9 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| Tour Finals | 0 | 2 |
| 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| 500 | 0 | 3 |
| 250 | 0 | 1 |
| In finals | 0 | 2 |
Plus 1 walkover, not counted.
Ratings now
| De Minaur A. | Sinner J. | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1899 (475) | 2318 (434) |
| Hard | 1887 (323) | 2272 (280) |
| Clay | 1817 (87) | 2129 (108) |
| Grass | 1836 (65) | 2060 (46) |
| Ranking at last match | 7 | 1 |
Elo ratings from every tour-level match (matches in brackets). 1500 is a newcomer; the very best are above 2200.
Every meeting (11)
| 15 Nov 2025 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsSemifinals | Sinner J. (2) |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Vienna Open 500Semifinals | Sinner J. (2) |
| 30 Sept 2025 | China Open 500Semifinals | Sinner J. (2) |
| 22 Jan 2025 | Australian Open Grand SlamQuarterfinals | Sinner J. (1) |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Masters Cup Tour FinalsRound Robin | Sinner J. (1) |
| 18 Feb 2024 | ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament 500Final | Sinner J. (4) |
| 2 Nov 2023 | BNP Paribas Masters 10003rd Round | De Minaur A. (13) |
| 13 Aug 2023 | Canadian Open 1000Final | Sinner J. (8) |
| 4 May 2022 | Mutua Madrid Open 10002nd Round | Sinner J. (12) |
| 24 Jan 2022 | Australian Open Grand Slam4th Round | Sinner J. (10) |
| 12 Nov 2020 | Sofia Open 250Quarterfinals | Sinner J. (44) |
"Model said" is the chance the model gave the eventual winner before the match; red marks an upset.
How the model works: Elo ratings overall and on each surface, built from every tour-level match since 2000, plus ranking, experience, best of five and previous meetings. Tested on 31,944 matches since 2020: it called 64.8% right, against 68.1% for the bookmakers' favourite, and when it says 70% the favourite has won about 70% of the time. It doesn't know about injuries or who's playing well this week. Tour-level main draws. Data: tennis-data.co.uk.